It’s no secret that President Donald Trump is not a fan of The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
As president he has made more direct attacks on the organisation than any of his predecessors in a string of attempts to stabilise the oil market and push Saudi Arabia to increase its capacity.
On Sunday Mr Trump accused OPEC on Fox News of manipulating the prices and warned its members to “stop it because we’re protecting those countries, many of those countries.”
The warning followed a barrage of more than 60 tweets over the past seven years in which Mr Trump blasted the organisation.
On Saturday he tweeted: “Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the turmoil & disfunction in Iran and Venezuela, I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference...Prices to high! He has agreed!”
Saudi Arabia agreed on Tuesday to make use of its spare production capacity to deal with changes in the level of supply and demand. Yet Mr Trump’s attacks have left a trail of bewildered Gulf diplomats.
"The United States knows we cannot just snap our fingers and increase production to 2,000,000 barrels," One GCC diplomat told The National.
But Saudi Arabia, reports Bloomberg, already boosted its output by 330,000 barrels a day in June to 10.3 million a day, the highest since 2013. Mr Trump's rhetoric may well be shaped by the upcoming midterm elections in November and the spike in US gasoline prices.
Ellen Wald, an energy expert and President of Transversal Consulting told The National that Mr Trump "is clearly concerned about gasoline prices rising too much in the US and that the administration's policy towards Iran - which could remove up to 2.5 million barrels per day from the market - will cause oil and gasoline prices to spike."
“This is especially concerning as mid-term elections will be around the same time as the sanctions are reinstated in November.”
Oil sanctions on Iran are expected to resume on November 4, two days ahead of congressional midterms.
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Read more:
[ Saudi Arabia ready to pump more oil to balance market ]
[ Trump blasts Opec and warns European companies against Iran ties ]
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Ms Wald said Riyadh will increase production “but by how much is not clear and will be determined by how much the Saudis think they can sell.”
Another sticking point between US and the Kingdom is Riyadh’s increased coordination with Russia in the energy sector. “Saudi Arabia will also coordinate with Russia because maintaining the Saudi-Russian cooperation is key to Saudi Arabia's long-term oil strategy...this may not be what President Trump was looking for,” said Ms Wald.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Faleh in Washington on Friday. Mr Al Faleh has had an instrumental role in improving cooperation with Russia, where he last visited in May.
Mr Trump is not the first US President to attack OPEC. The organisation has been a punching bag for US politicians since 1973. His attacks, however, are more frequent and ruthless in language than those of his predecessors.
Karen Young, a Senior Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington told The National that Mr Trump's "efforts at petro-diplomacy demonstrate his America First rhetoric but his agenda may hit snags when it comes to economic cooperation."
She warned that the handling of any economic or oil crisis will “require diplomacy, delicate partnerships and technical knowledge.” Something that is lacking in Mr Trump’s rhetoric, she said.
Unsurprisingly, Mr Trump’s Twitter demands for increase in oil production and threats to OPEC “do not automatically create the pricing changes that he sought," said Ms Young.
"Instead it reveals the economic interdependence of his Iran policy, his Middle East partnership strategies, and his vulnerability in the domestic economy” Ms Young said.
Picture of Joumblatt and Hariri breaking bread sets Twitter alight
Mr Joumblatt’s pessimism regarding the Lebanese political situation didn’t stop him from enjoying a cheerful dinner on Tuesday with several politicians including Mr Hariri.
Caretaker Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury tweeted a picture of the group sitting around a table at a discrete fish restaurant in Beirut’s upscale Sodeco area.
Mr Joumblatt told The National that the fish served at Kelly’s Fish lounge had been very good.
“They really enjoyed their time”, remembers the restaurant owner. “Mr Hariri was taking selfies with everybody”.
Mr Hariri and Mr Joumblatt often have dinner together to discuss recent political developments.
Mr Joumblatt was a close ally of Mr Hariri’s assassinated father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The pair were leading figures in the political grouping against the 15-year Syrian occupation of Lebanon that ended after mass protests in 2005 in the wake of Rafik Hariri’s murder. After the younger Hariri took over his father’s mantle in 2004, the relationship with Mr Joumblatt endured.
However, the pair have not always been so close. In the run-up to the election last year, Messrs Hariri and Joumblatt went months without speaking over an argument regarding the new proportional electoral law to be used for the first time. Mr Joumblatt worried that a proportional system, which Mr Hariri backed, would see the influence of his small sect diminished.
With so much of Lebanese politics agreed in late-night meetings behind closed doors, the media and pundits put significant weight on how regularly, where and with who senior politicians meet.
In the picture, alongside Messrs Khoury and Hariri were Mr Joumbatt and his wife Nora, PSP politician Wael Abou Faour and Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon Nazih el Nagari.
The picture of the dinner led to a flurry of excitement on Twitter that it signified an imminent government formation. “God willing, white smoke will rise soon and Walid Beik [a nickname for Walid Joumblatt] will accept to give up the minister of industry”, one user replied to the tweet. “Blessings to you…We would like you to form a cabinet”, wrote another.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether these wishes come true.
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- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
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His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
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Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
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