British prime minister Theresa May and Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon are locking horns over their preferred versions of Brexit, with Scotland warning it will once again attempt to declare independence from the United Kingdom.
Ms Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the head of the Scottish government, reiterated on Sunday her demand for a “soft” Brexit. In this model – currently followed by Iceland and Norway – the UK would not be a political member of the European Union but would retain access to the EU’s common market.
A “hard” Brexit would pull the UK out of the common market and have a huge negative impact on Scotland’s economy, Ms Sturgeon said.
“I’m not going to sit back while Scotland is driven off a hard Brexit cliff edge with all the implications for jobs and the type of country we are that that would have.”
The Scottish first minister said that if plans for a hard Brexit proceeded, she would call a second referendum on independence in Scotland.
Ms May’s government “would be making a very big mistake if they think I’m in any way bluffing”, Ms Sturgeon added.
On Monday, Ms Sturgeon ruled out holding a second referendum on independence this year, but maintained that another ballot “has to be on the table”.
With the support of political allies, the SNP has the majority in Holyrood, the Scottish parliament, to pass a bill calling for a fresh referendum.
Scotland held its first referendum for independence from the UK in September 2014. On that occasion, 55.3 per cent of voters wanted to remain with the UK, while 44.7 per cent voted for independence.
But the result of the Brexit referendum last June has transformed matters, Ms Sturgeon says – a stance she has maintained ever since British voters chose narrowly to leave the EU. In the June referendum, 62 per cent of Scotland’s voters overwhelmingly chose to stay with the bloc.
If Ms May pursues the hard Brexit option, the impact on Scotland’s economy – already suffering from the crash in oil prices and the consequent £15 billion (Dh67bn) deficit – could be very worrying, studies have found.
Scotland could lose up to 80,000 jobs and see average wages fall by £2,000 per person in the event of a hard Brexit, estimated a report by the Fraser of Allander Institute, a Glasgow-based think tank.
The Scottish economy would decline by 5 per cent overall – shrinking around £8 billion per decade, said the report which was published in October. Even in the event of a soft Brexit, the Scottish economy is expected to erode by roughly £5 billion over the next 10 years.
Even so, opinion polls conducted since October show waning support in Scotland for a fresh independence referendum. Only 38.5 per cent of voters favour holding such a referendum in 2017, according to a survey conducted by Glasgow's Herald newspaper in January.
The proportion of people desiring independence from the UK, meanwhile, remains similar to the result of the 2014 referendum – 45.5 per cent versus the 54.5 per cent wishing to continue with the status quo.
“This is because the United Kingdom government remains deeply unsure about its preferred strategy,” said Jim Gallagher, an adviser to Better Together, the 2014 campaign to keep Scotland within the UK.
Mr Gallagher told The National he thought a new referendum would prove divisive.
“Even were it to gain a small majority for independence – which is possible but by no means certain – Scotland would be a profoundly divided country, in a situation of deep economic and political uncertainty,” he said.
“Leaving the European Union will, in the view of all reputable economic forecasters, be bad for the UK economy and for Scotland within it,” he added. “But leaving the UK would be catastrophically bad for the Scottish economy.”
If the mood shifts at all, it will depend upon the final shape of Brexit, said Tom Devine, a historian at the University of Edinburgh. “In addition, the SNP has still to produce a convincing plan for the currency and economy post-independence,” he added.
Mr Devine pointed out that Ms Sturgeon is exploring other alternatives, involving further devolutions of power from the British parliament to the Scottish parliament.
If Ms May’s government blocks these options, he said, the SNP could “blame the wicked Tories” and press for independence. But “it’s a high-risk strategy”, he said.
Ms Sturgeon has also been calling for separate Brexit deals to be negotiated for Scotland and the rest of the UK, to preserve Scotland’s access to the common market.
A soft Brexit for the UK as a whole is still an option, Mr Gallagher said, although “the mood music from UK ministers suggests this might not happen”.
“Nicola Sturgeon is right to argue for this for the UK as a whole,” he said. “But her suggestion that Scotland might remain in the single market even if the UK does not is wholly impractical.”
ssbramanian@thenational.ae
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Raghida, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Alareeq, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-2 Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 2,200m
Winner: Basmah, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Liwa Oasis Group 2 (PA) Dh300,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: SS Jalmod, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m
Winner: Trolius, Ryan Powell, Simon Crisford
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Guardians%20of%20the%20Galaxy%20Vol%203
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJames%20Gunn%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Pratt%2C%20Zoe%20Saldana%2C%20Dave%20Bautista%2C%20Vin%20Diesel%2C%20Bradley%20Cooper%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20DarDoc%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Samer%20Masri%2C%20Keswin%20Suresh%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%24800%2C000%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Flat6Labs%2C%20angel%20investors%20%2B%20Incubated%20by%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi's%20Department%20of%20Health%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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RESULTS
5pm Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Munfared, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Sawt Assalam, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Dergham Athbah, Pat Dobbs, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Rajee, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
7pm Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Kerless Del Roc, Fernando Jara, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
7.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner Pharoah King, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
8pm Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner Sauternes Al Maury, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners