Rebel-held Idlib a tempting but difficult target for Syrian regime

Idlib is the strongest remaining enclave of Syrian rebels – but experts question whether the regime will risk the sacrifices required to recapture it

Syrian soldiers in Aleppo on December 23, 2016, a day after the military declared victory in the northern city following the departure of all opposition fighters from the former rebel stronghold in east Aleppo. Sana / EPAShow less

BEIRUT // With the recapture of Aleppo now complete, Syrian government forces are looking to build on their battlefield successes and weighing up their next target.

The most probable location is Idlib. The north-western province has been almost entirely in rebel hands since May last year and, with tens of thousands of fighters stationed there, it is the strongest rebel enclave in the country. Rebel numbers have been boosted by the arrival of fighters who left other parts of the country under deals with the government, most recently from Aleppo.

But dislodging the rebels from their heartland will not be easy. Idlib is the main stronghold of both Jabhat Fatah Al Sham, the former Al Qaeda affiliate which dominates the province, and the powerful, hardline Ahrar Al Sham. And unlike Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria’s other opposition pocket along the Turkish border north of Aleppo, who are restrained from attacking government forces as they carry out Ankara’s bidding, Idlib’s rebel fighters have no such constraints.

“If they did go for Idlib, I think it would be a really big challenge,” said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “I don’t think it’s an impossible objective, but I think that the level of destruction and the amount of resources and casualties that it would necessitate to take the entire province back – or even just Idlib city – would probably not be worth it.”

Fabrice Balanche, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, estimated it would take government forces and their allies at least a year to capture all of Idlib.

The Syrian government would have to retake nearly 6,000 square kilometres of rebel territory, fighting through cities, farmland and mountains. The varied geography could be advantageous to the rebels, particularly if they adopt guerrilla tactics. And with a local population that largely detests the government, insurgency could continue even in areas that have been recaptured.

The government and its allies would also be facing Syria’s most effective and feared rebel groups.

Jabhat Fatah Al Sham has spearheaded many rebel offensives in the war. The group’s experience, training and tactics – including the use of suicide attacks, which other opposition groups are not willing to carry out – has enabled them to achieve victories that other rebel fighters could not.

As a result, Fatah Al Sham is the dominant force in Idlib, with a number of allied factions in its orbit. The group’s close relationship with many other rebel factions in Idlib blurs the lines between more moderate opposition fighters and extremists more than anywhere else in the conflict. When the regime attack on Idlib does come, it would not be surprising if international criticism of the government’s actions is muted compared with the response to its actions in Aleppo. After Donald Trump assumes the presidency in the United States, it is also not out of the realm of possibility that strikes against Fatah Al Sham, and potentially its allies, could increase given his statements about working with Russia in Syria.

Analysts agree that the fight for Idlib will be difficult, but not that it will be the government’s next target. While heavy concentrations of government forces and heavy weapons left over from the offensive on nearby Aleppo would make it easier to attack Idlib, the regime may have more pressing concerns.

With government and allied forces massed in Aleppo, ISIL was able to retake the ancient city of Palmyra on December 11. The government’s capture of the city in March was one of its most celebrated victories of the war, marked by a Russian orchestra playing a concert amid the Roman ruins. This time around, retaking Palmyra holds even greater symbolic importance for the government, as well as strategic importance. But if taking the city – and keeping hold of it afterwards – requires a significant number of troops, progress elsewhere could stall.

The government could also look to make headway against rebel pockets in southern Syria, or continue a push into ISIL territory in the north-east.

Or, rather than a full-scale assault, pro-government forces could also try to make small, specific gains in Idlib over time. The government is likely to face pressure from allied Iran-backed factions to retake the two besieged Shiite villages of Foua and Kefraya in the province.

“I just have difficulty imagining that they would try to roll up the whole of Idlib at once because that would be a huge undertaking,” said Aron Lund, a Syria expert with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“They’re shipping rebels to Idlib in order to deal with them later and reduce the number of active fronts they have at one time ... for Assad you can also just kind of leave Idlib stewing to some extent and deal with everything else.”

Even if an attack on Idlib is imminent, its main thrust could still be distant.

“If the regime chooses to do Idlib, it will be premised on – like in Aleppo – several months of very heavy bombardment. I don’t think we’d see major ground operations for a while,” said Mr Lister of the Middle East Institute.

[e-mail]​