Noose tightens around ISIL as Iraq forces close in on Mosul

It is becoming increasingly likely that new fronts will be opened up on Mosul as coalition forces advance further on day two of the operation to purge ISIL from their last Iraqi stronghold.

Kurdish peshmerga forces advance in the east of Mosul to attack ISIL militants in Mosul in northern Iraq as the battle for the last ISIL stronghold in the country enters its second day on October 18, 2016. Thaier Al-Sudani/ReutersShow less

ERBIL // Tens of thousands of Iraqi and Kurdish forces continued their advance on ISIL-held positions around Mosul on Tuesday, raising expectations that new lines of attack will be opened soon.

On the second day of the operation to liberate the Iraqi city from the insurgents, gains were reported to the south and the south-east of Mosul.

From the south-eastern front the Iraqi army reached the outskirts of Qaraqosh, a Christian town only 15 kilometres from the outskirts of Mosul, while on the southern front Iraq’s federal police pushed towards the town of Al Houd.

Iraqi army Lt Col Mohammed Shaker said his forces had retaken six other villages over the past two days.

As the army and the Kurdish peshmerga close in on Mosul, it is becoming increasingly likely that new fronts will be opened up on the embattled ISIL-stronghold.

The Kurdish front lines to the north of Mosul are as close as a dozen kilometres from the city’s outskirts. With troops now at a similar distance to the city in the north, south and east, a concerted push from three directions is expected to be the next stage in the operation.

Iraqi army units have taken up positions along the Kurdish front lines, and both the peshmerga and the army are likely to advance from the north. The attackers may leave a corridor to the west of the city, allowing the insurgents to pull out of the city and move towards Syria.

Iraqi prime minister Haider Al Abadi said on Tuesday it was the duty of the US-led anti-ISIL coalition to prevent the extremists from escaping into nearby Syria from Mosul.

Once Iraqi forces reach the city, well-prepared defences will await the attackers, and the going will get tougher.

Leading the coalition with air and ground support, the US military said Iraqi forces appeared to be “ahead of schedule”, but senior western officials have warned that the fight for Mosul will be long-drawn.

“Mosul will be a difficult fight,” US president Barack Obama said on Tuesday. “There will be advances and there will be setbacks.”

The commencement of fighting in Mosul itself may also trigger a mass exodus of the city’s inhabitants, raising the spectre of high civilian casualties.

“As people hear the fighting getting closer to their homes, many in Mosul will decide that their children and loved ones will be safer risking minefields and capture by ISIS than getting caught up in the crossfire,” said Aleksandar Milutinovic, country director at the International Rescue Committee.

So far, there are no indications that the trickle of people managing to escape the city is swelling into a stream, but the UN warns that up to 200,000 civilians could try to flee once hostilities get under way in urban areas.

The army has urged Mosul residents to remain in their houses, and dropped seven million leaflets over the city ahead of the assault to persuade its inhabitants to stay.

Prime minister Haider Al Abadi said on Tuesday that safe exit routes had been created for civilians wanting to flee Mosul.

But humanitarians worry about the dangers of fleeing the city.

“Our concern is that no safe routes have been established once the fighting intensifies,” says Karl Schembri, a spokesperson for the Norwegian Refugee Council.

The battle for Fallujah in May has shown that ISIL is unwilling to let civilians escape, preferring to use them as human shields against coalition air attacks and the advancing Iraqi army.

In Fallujah, the insurgents shot and killed desperate families swimming across the Euphrates, while others were killed by improvised explosive devices that littered the city and the surrounding areas. “We see a parallel with Fallujah: the closer to the battle it gets, the harder it is for civilians to reach the outside,” said Mr Schembri.

Shiite militias, known as the Hashed Al Shaabi, could soon join the operation although the US-led coalition is keen to keep them out of the fight due to their reputation for acting out on their sectarian bias.

“It seems like today they are moving towards Qayyarah,” said Haitham Al Mayahi, a spokesman for the Badr Organisation, one of the most powerful Hashed Al Shaabi militias.

The town of Qayyarah lies approximately 60 kilometres from Mosul. It is the main logistics base for the operation, and the US military has a strong presence at the airfield used to fly in supplies.

The Hashed Al Shaabi, also known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), stand accused of killing and torturing Sunni civilians in past battles and areas under their control. Their appearance in Mosul could turn the civilian population against the attackers, and stiffen ISIL’s defence.

According to Mr Mayahi, the Shiite militias will not take part in the fight unless circumstances dictate it.

"The Hashed Al Shaabi will never enter the city, they will be a back up, and if there is an urgent situation they will intervene," he told The National.

If a new line of attack is added in the north of Mosul, the involvement of Turkish forces in the battle for Mosul becomes possible. A Turkish troop contingent is based near the front lines at Bashiqa, an ISIL-held town barely a dozen kilometres from Mosul.

The Turks have rained down artillery fire on ISIL-positions in the past, and Ankara has ignored repeated demands by Baghdad to withdraw its troops from the Iraqi Kurdish territory. If the Turkish military takes part in the offensive, it will be without coordination with the Iraqi army, complicating the drive towards Mosul.

*Additional reporting from Agence France-Presse