Yemen leaders agree to open reform dialogue


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SANA'A // Yemen's ruling party, the General People's Congress, and the Joint Meeting Parties, an opposition coalition of six parties, signed an agreement yesterday to start a national dialogue and discuss political and electoral reforms. The accord, which was signed in the presidential palace and under the patronage of Ali Abdullah Saleh, the president, stated that it was meant to implement an agreement signed by both groups in February 2009. At that time, the two parties agreed to postpone last year's scheduled parliamentary election by two years to carry out electoral and constitutional reforms. However, the dialogue since then on the issues to be addressed before the 2011 election has reached a deadlock. Under the new accord, the two sides agreed to provide a chance for all political parties and non-governmental organisations to discuss the necessary constitutional amendments for developing and improving the political and electoral system, the agreement stated. Dialogue will continue, the agreement said, with the formation of a joint 200-member committee representing all political forces. A meeting will be held to nominate representatives in the committee. The committee's meeting will be publicly televised and its resolutions will be binding on those involved. Mr Saleh considered the accord as a major breakthrough in the political scene of Yemen, which is facing a sporadic insurgency in the north, a growing secessionist movement in the south, economic hardship throughout the country and a rise in the number of attacks by al Qa'eda. "This is a positive step towards political detente ? and it opens a new political phase as the nation is for all people, not only for the ruling party or opposition," Mr Saleh told reporters after the signing, and renewed a call he made in May to the opposition to form a national unity government. On Saturday the president also insisted that parliamentary elections should take place on time in April, in line with February agreement. malqadhi@thenational.ae

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg