Iran's hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, boasted last night that his country has tested two new kinds of uranium enrichment centrifuges with a higher capacity than those in use now. He was speaking at a ceremony to inaugurate Iran's first nuclear fuel production plant at another facility in the central city of Isfahan, portraying the day as a major milestone in Tehran's controversial quest for nuclear capability. The plant's opening suggests that Iran may have mastered the complete nuclear fuel cycle from uranium mining to enrichment.
The event also marked Iran's national nuclear day, which commemorates the occasion in 2006 when the Islamic republic enriched uranium for the first time. The Isfahan plant will produce pellets of uranium oxide to fuel the heavy water reactor at Arak, which is scheduled to be completed later this year or next. Iran's atomic chief, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, proclaimed Iran has now increased the number of centrifuges installed at its Natanz uranium enrichment facility from 6,000 to 7,000.
Yet Mr Ahmadinejad also declared he was ready for talks with the West if they are based on "respect and justice", responding to recent entreaties from the West. On Wednesday, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany said they would invite Iran to talks to find a diplomatic solution to the nuclear dispute. In a major policy shift, the US said it would take part in such multilateral talks with Iran. Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, suggested American participation would be part of a wider effort to engage with a country it has isolated for three decades. A top adviser to Mr Ahmadinejad yesterday described the six-power talks offer as "constructive".
International experts have treated previous boasts of Iranian nuclear prowess with scepticism. Iranian claims of nuclear progress usually sound alarm bells in western capitals, which Tehran may well calculate will strengthen its hand in any negotiations about its programme with the international community. Iran's national nuclear day was also a prime opportunity for Mr Ahmadinejad to bolster his standing at home before June's presidential elections. His popularity has been marred by high inflation and unemployment, which opponents blame on his mismanagement of the economy.
"Arak's not even finished, so this looks like Ahmadinejad is playing to a domestic audience. It's Iran's nuclear day, so he has to present this as something really big," said a western diplomat in Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Inspectors from the agency visited Arak last year but have not been allowed back. Iran denies any intention to build a nuclear weapon but the US and its allies have expressed concerns that Iran could reprocess spent fuel from the heavy-water reactor at Arak into plutonium for building a warhead. Tehran insists the Arak plant is planned to make isotopes only for agricultural and health purposes.
Iran's uranium enrichment programme at Natanz presents more immediate concerns to the West than the hard-water reactor, because it is far more advanced. However, there appeared to be an element of exaggeration in Iran's claim that it has installed 7,000 centrifuges there. In its latest report in February, the IAEA said Iran had 3,963 centrifuges actively enriching uranium at Natanz, suggesting Tehran was doing less uranium enrichment than it physically could. This was seen in some quarters as a tacit goodwill signal from Tehran to the incoming Obama administration.
The tone from Tehran yesterday signalled no compromise on its nuclear programme which it suggested had reached an unstoppable momentum. "Today Iran practically proved that its [nuclear] fuel cycle has been completed and naturally suspension of uranium enrichment cannot be discussed with Iran," declared Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Iran's national security and foreign policy commission. Mr Obama used the occasion of Iran's new year last month to offer a "new beginning" in relations with the Islamic Republic, saying he wanted to end the mistrust and enmity of the last 30 years.
The Bush administration had persistently ruled out direct contact with Iran on the nuclear issue unless Tehran first suspended uranium enrichment, although it allowed a senior diplomat to attend one round of nuclear talks last summer. European powers will be delighted by the US policy change. Washington has backed stalemated European-led nuclear talks with Iran since 2005. The US agreed to help its allies last year in offering Iran political and economic incentives along with a pledge to help with a civilian nuclear programme in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear ambitions. Tehran rejected the offer, leading to UN Security Council imposing three rounds of economic sanctions on Iran.
A US presence at the negotiating table was viewed by European diplomats as essential, the EU alone cannot provide what Tehran most wants: an end to US hostility and an American acceptance of Iran's regional role. Iran's boasts of significant nuclear progress will raise concerns abroad, however, not least in Israel where the hawkish new prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has repeatedly stated that he would not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran.
Joe Biden, the US Vice president, in a message directed at Israel this week, warned it would be "ill-advised" to launch a military strike against Iran. Apart from having no desire to see the Middle East plunge into another major war, Washington is concerned that Israeli threats of military action could hamper its attempts to secure a diplomatic solution to the nuclear dispute with Iran. The US and Israel disagree on how much nuclear progress Iran really has made. Israel maintained last month that Iran had passed the "point of no return" in developing nuclear technology. It said if Tehran gave the go-ahead, its scientists would have the technology to assemble a nuclear warhead within a year or so.
That estimate was dismissed as a "worst case" scenario by Dennis Blair, the US director of national intelligence who said Iran "does not have any highly enriched uranium" and has not decided "to convert the low-enriched uranium it is making to the weapons-grade material". His estimate was that "the minimum time at which Iran can technically produce the right amount of highly enriched uranium for a single weapon is 2010 to 2015".
Analysts see possible ways out of the nuclear conundrum. Face-saving compromises could include the US accepting some small amounts of uranium enrichment solely for research purposes, or for Natanz to become an international facility. International trust could be won if Iran's nuclear activities were supported by sufficient voluntary controls and checks so that any diversion to military activities could be detected at an early stage.
European officials have advocated a so-called "freeze for freeze" approach while talks proceed: Tehran would suspend its enrichment programme at the current level in level in return for the West not imposing additional economic and diplomatic sanctions. @Email:mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
