BAGHDAD // There are growing doubts that British military units will be allowed to return to train the Iraqi police and navy in Basra, after being forced to quietly slip out of the country when the their legal agreement with Baghdad expired this summer.
A team from the Royal Navy was pulled out of southern Iraq on May 31 and has since been waiting in Kuwait for permission to return and resume its training role.
Legislation covering the presence of UK forces was originally expected to be ratified by the Iraqi national parliament before it went into a long summer recess. The passage stalled however, with too few MPs voting in favour of extending the British mandate.
While British officials say they are optimistic that Iraq's parliament will eventually approve the agreement, Iraqi MPs are not lining up to endorse it, according to Dhafer al Ani, a member of the parliament's security and defence committee.
"We believe that if it was really urgent and necessary for national security that the agreement be signed, then the government would be able to sign a temporary memorandum," he said.
The fact no such stopgap arrangement has been made, he said, gave MPs the impression the Baghdad-London deal was not essential. Such a view was apparently endorsed by the British foreign secretary, David Miliband, who, according to The Times newspaper, wrote in a letter to another UK politician that the withdrawal of British ships and naval personnel would "not detrimentally affect the immediate security situation in Iraq".
Mr al Ani, of the Iraqi Accord Front, also warned that ahead of national elections, due to take place in January, few Iraqi political parties would want to associate themselves with prolonging a foreign occupation.
"We're almost in election season and all parties will want to promote their nationalist credentials and most of them will reject the agreement because they know the people of Basra do not favour the presence of British troops in the city or the British navy on the water."
In the immediate aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion, British forces earned a generally favourable reputation in Basra and surrounding areas, where they were seen as more moderate, culturally sensitive and less trigger-happy than their American allies stationed further north.
By 2007 however, Basra was largely under the control of Shiite militias which enforced an increasingly hardline theocratic rule on the traditionally tolerant and diverse city. University staff were assassinated, non-Muslim women were forced to wear Islamic headscarves and shops selling alcohol were smashed. Members of Basra's minority Sunni and Christian minorities fled.
Many ordinary Iraqis, and the US military, complained that the British had effectively conceded the oil-rich city to militants, rather than take them on in a direct confrontation.
In the spring of 2008 the Iraqi army, backed by the US military, began an operation to seize control of Basra back from the militias. After days of sometimes intense street fighting, the militants were forced off the streets and some sense of normality was restored.
Britain's main military contingent left Basra province in April this year, leaving behind small units helping to train the Iraqi police and the country's fledgling navy. With Iraq's current refusal to ratify the joint forces agreement, Britain had to withdraw the trainers and two ships from Iraqi waters. The ships, which were protecting Iraq's offshore oil platforms, have since been replaced by US vessels.
The Sadrist movement, led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr, a staunch nationalist, has played an instrumental role in blocking the legislation in parliament, helped by the fact few Iraqi MPs bothered to turn out in support of the deal, a measure of the general indifference to Britain's ongoing role in Iraq.
While many Iraqis remain wary of a large-scale pullout by US forces, the British have long been seen as irrelevant. Iraqi government negotiations with Washington were tough but they were concluded and approved before the Americans' legal mandate expired. No such effort was made in Iraq's dealings with London, a slight against the old colonial power.
"We are against anything that will continue the British occupation or give them any control over Iraqi oil exports or any other influence over the national economy," said Ali al Mayali, a Sadrist MP. "Renewing any convention that gives the British permission to keep their military forces here is a humiliation to Iraq."
The Sadrists would lobby other blocs to back them when parliament resumes on September 20 after the summer recess, he said.
Despite the failure of the agreement to be passed, some Iraqi politicians still expect it will eventually win approval when parliament returns.
"Most of the political blocs have no reservations about the convention with the British," said Sami al Askari, an MP close to the Iraqi prime minister Nouri al Maliki. "There is a broad agreement that Iraq does not have sufficient naval force to protect our ports and waterways and the convention includes the participation of four British ships to help defend our territorial waters, which is important for Iraqi oil exports.
"I don't think the convention will be blocked again in the next parliament."
David Miliband, the British foreign secretary, has said Iraqi opposition to the continued presence of the Royal Navy was limited to a "very small number" of MPs but admitted that it remained unclear whether the agreement would ever be approved.
"That said, we fully respect Iraq's democratic processes and cannot say with certainty now whether the Council of Representatives will vote the agreement through or not," he wrote in a letter to William Hague, a British MP with the opposition Tory party.
Since the invasion, 179 British troops have died in Iraq.
nlatif@thenational.ae
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
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The charge is stored inside a battery
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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