A handout picture made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian president Hassan Rouhani speaking during the cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran, 6 May 2020. EPA
A handout picture made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian president Hassan Rouhani speaking during the cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran, 6 May 2020. EPA
A handout picture made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian president Hassan Rouhani speaking during the cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran, 6 May 2020. EPA
A handout picture made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian president Hassan Rouhani speaking during the cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran, 6 May 2020. EPA

Iran warns of 'rising trend' as virus cases top 100,000


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Iran warned of a "rising trend" in its coronavirus outbreak on Wednesday as it said 1,680 new infections took its overall caseload beyond the 100,000 mark.

The Islamic republic has struggled to contain the Middle East's deadliest Covid-19 outbreak since announcing its first cases in mid-February.

Concerns were raised last month about the threat of a "second wave" of the virus in a report by parliament that criticised the government's slow response.

"We are witnessing a rising trend in the past three or four days, which is significant," health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour told a televised news conference.

The rise was "based on our behaviour, especially in the past two weeks, considering that a part of society has apparently had a change of attitude," he added.

The newly reported infections brought the country's overall number of confirmed cases to 101,650.

On Saturday, Iran's official tally of daily infections hit its lowest level since March 10, but cases have picked up again since then.

The health ministry's Jahanpour said the spike in cases could be due to an increase in movement across cities and unnecessary travel.

Iran has allowed a phased return to work to revitalise its economy since April 11 and reopened mosques in parts of the country deemed to be at low risk.

Jahanpour also reported 78 new Covid-19 fatalities in the past 24 hours for the country whose virus death toll has also been creeping up since Sunday.

This brought to 6,418 the total number of fatalities officially recorded in Iran since February 19, when it announced its first two deaths in the Shiite holy city of Qom.

Out of those hospitalised, 81,587 had recovered and were discharged while 2,735 were in critical condition.

Experts and officials both in Iran and abroad have cast doubts over the country's Covid-19 figures, saying the actual number of cases could be much higher than reported.

A report published by parliament in mid-April said the real death toll could be as much as 80 percent higher than what the government announced.

It said the officially announced figures were based only on "patients that are hospitalised with severe symptoms".

It also said a "second wave" of the virus may come next winter, possibly without a break due to containment measures taking too long.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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