SANAA // Yemeni activists and opposition leaders fear that simmering violence reminiscent of last year's "war in Sanaa" might derail the country's fragile transition to democracy.
Their concern was underscored by an attack on the interior ministry in the capital this week, which killed 15 people and injured 45.
A spokesman for the country's biggest political bloc said the latest fighting highlights the sensitivity of Yemen's transition after 33 years of Ali Abdullah Saleh's rule.
"This reminds us of last year's Sanaa war. People are armed and a criminal outbreak could take place at any given moment if politics fail," said Ahmed Al Bahri of the Joint Meeting Parties.
Media reports claimed the gunmen who stormed the ministry were backed by members of the central security services loyal to Mr Saleh, the former president who was forced to step down this year after an uprising against his regime.
Although Mr Saleh ceded power in February, his loyalists have sought to undermine the government of the transitional president Abdrabu Mansur Hadi, according to opposition parties.
"Ali Saleh will stand against any decree that leads to replacing his aides in the security sector. Though he is not president, he wants to remain Yemen's strongest man," said Yaseen Saeed Noman, the secretary general of the Socialist party.
Mr Hadi admits the road ahead will not be easy. Five months into his presidency, he is unable to move without a significant security presence.
"We are still passing through a critical phase and we hope to see light in the end of the tunnel. This cannot happen only through dialogue," said Mr Hadi last week.
Since taking power, Mr Hadi has removed corrupt officials from senior military and political positions but that has not been enough for activists who want to see change happen at a faster pace.
Hundreds of thousands of protesters continue to take to the streets on Fridays, where they call for further reforms and improved security. "We fought for freedom and democracy and don't see them yet. What we see today is the opposite and that is why we will continue protesting," said Khaled Al Anesi, a prominent activist in Sanaa.
No real progress has been made to accommodate all the political players in the National Dialogue process, a key element in the transitional period.
The first phase of the dialogue was initially planned for October but was delayed until November.
Last month, the International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report highlighting the dangers Yemen is facing.
The reports said that "if politicians in Sanaa fail to resolve, or at least contain, the ongoing elite confrontation and move forward with an inclusive dialogue, the country risks experiencing further violence and fragmentation".
"Yemen has long run away from critical decisions. It should run no more," it added.
Under the transitional plan that was brokered by the GCC, presidential elections are scheduled to take place in 2014.
In the interim, the government's main challenges are to advance the National Dialogue, restructure the army, and rework the constitution.
Mohammed Abulahoum, the president of the opposition Justice and Building party, believes that now is the time for Mr Hadi to prove his credentials.
"The president needs to standup to the challenge. People are waiting patiently for change but will soon give up on him," said Mr Abulahoum.
"Yemenis are still united behind him.".
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
All about the Sevens
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
