Hopes for Jordan's economic recovery


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"There is one simple question that, to my best of knowledge, no one has as yet has raised in Jordan: is there any prospect for the economic situation to improve next year?" asked Fahd al Fanek in an opinion piece for the Jordanian newspaper Al Rai. If a survey were undertaken in this regard, the majority would most likely express pessimism and expect a dim economic outlook in 2010.

In 2009, economic indicators were inconsistent in Jordan: some positive, others negative. With a partial recovery of the world economy, there is a likelihood that the overall economy will heal as primary estimates indicated positive growth next year of no less than 4 per cent. Such sectors as tourism, imports and exports are also expected to increase, which will cushion this year's budget deficit.

With a low inflation rate of 4 per cent, the government and the private sector will to offer the usual salary raises to safeguard a minimum standard of living for the low income segments of society. There is a great hope, though, that next year will be better as many development programmes - halted as a protective measure during the height of the financial meltdown - will be resumed as banks are showing signs of recovery.

The recent call by Lebanon's speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, to abolish political sectarianism has prompted a heated debate among various Lebanese political forces, wrote Bassam al Dhaw in an opinion piece for the Qatari newspaper Al Watan.  This step should not be seen as new one because the proposal was first mentioned in the Taif agreement of 1989, which stipulated the formation of a national commission for the abolition of sectarianism.

Mr Berri's call was met by fierce opposition by all influential political forces. "But what are the motives behind such a reaction? The main reason lies in the interrelated political interests which govern Lebanese politics. If the proposal were implemented, it would bring into being great changes that would affect three main areas: the composition of government authority, the system of political values, and the nature of social and economic relations in Lebanon." As a result, the state would replace the sect and be the standard for rule. This would also lead to the cancellation of the present quota system of governance. Any change would directly affect the individual interests of the current political elite.

"We cannot go back in time and demand that our mothers stay at home to take care of their families and children from dawn to dusk as they used to do in the past," remarked Fadheela al Muaini in an opinion piece for the UAE newspaper Al Bayan.

Mothers in the UAE used to be the first to wake up and the last to go to bed. During the entire day, the mother was busy preparing meals for all members of the family and making sure that everyone was around the table for the main course and for tea.  Unfortunately, it is no longer possible to keep to that routine because of time constraints. Members of the family can barely meet once a day around the dining table.

Takeaway snacks and restaurants have replaced the traditional gathering to savour a homemade meal and have a pleasant family chat. Because of modern life's requirements, members of the same family are living under the same roof, but they rarely meet or socialise. Such a social "dislocation" needs to be addressed by the Federal Demographics and Emiratisation Council. Measures to be taken should include, for instance, reorganising women's working hours so that they can have ample time to take care of their children and better manage the household.

"Two Palestinian leaders are capturing popular attention at the current stage. The first, Marwan Barghouti, is behind bars, and the second, Mohammed Dahlan, is the media official of the Fatah movement. In the middle, Mahmoud Abbas, president of Palestinian Authority, is shuttling back and forth between Latin America and the Arab countries, noted Subhi Zuaitar in a lead article for the Saudi paper Al Watan. 

Mr Barghouti, detained for his role in the two intifadas, enjoys the wide support and respect of all Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas. If he is released today in a prisoner exchange deal, he will definitely be the future Palestinian president. He will also be able to help in solving a great many of the pending issues between the two major Palestinian political forces.  If he stays in detention, that will benefit Mr Dahlan, who has always aspired to the presidency since the era of Yasser Arafat. It will serve him right if Mr Barghouti remains away from the political scene and if conflicts between Fatah and Hamas continue.

Both men have the same political affiliation, yet their popularity varies greatly, and this makes the difference. * Digest compiled by Mostapha Elmouloudi melmouloudi@thenational.ae

Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg