The number of Covid-19 cases reported in Egypt has surged from a daily average of less than 200 to well over 400 since the start of the month, giving credence to forecasts of a “second wave”.
These are relatively small numbers in a country of 100 million people, but Health Ministry figures are taken as a reliable indicator of the rate of infections, rather than the number of cases.
This is attributed in part to limited testing by the state’s health services and the large number of patients who contract a mild form of Covid-19 and recover without reporting to hospitals.
While Covid-19 cases and related deaths are fewer in the wave, the publicity surrounding the relatively high number of Egyptian celebrities who contracted the disease is drawing added attention.
The most prominent of those celebrities was Liverpool and Egypt star striker Mohamed Salah, who is believed to have been infected at his brother’s wedding in Cairo last month.
Images online showed Salah not wearing a mask or wearing it negligently.
He missed two international fixtures with the Pharaohs and a Premier League match before he tested negative and resumed playing for Liverpool.
About half a dozen movie stars caught the disease at a popular film festival held at an upscale Red Sea resort in late October.
Organisers countered criticism by insisting that preventive measures such as face masks and social distancing were strictly enforced.
But images online showed crowded auditoriums and after parties, where few guests observed precautions.
Another film festival opened on Thursday in Cairo, with most celebrities walking the red carpet without masks and images from parties again showing film stars mingling freely without masks or social distancing.
A total of 118,014 people have fallen victim to the coronavirus since February when the pandemic first arrived in Egypt, the Health Ministry said, while the death toll has reached 6,750.
Officials have said the number could be much higher, perhaps 10 times the reported amount.
June had the highest number of cases and deaths, with the daily number hitting as many as 1,700 and about 100 respectively, the ministry said.
The government has repeatedly warned that, until a vaccine is available, Egyptians must take precautions against the spread of the coronavirus.
Authorities said they intend to reinforce the 4,000-pound fine on anyone using public transport or going to government offices without wearing a mask.
They said failure to observe preventive measures would allow the disease to spread as it did elsewhere in the world with disastrous consequences, and an unwanted repeat of the March-July lockdown that hurt the economy.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution