Marine Le Pen, French National Front (FN) party leader, at congress in Lille, France, March 11, 2018. Pascal Rossignol /Reuters
Marine Le Pen, French National Front (FN) party leader, at congress in Lille, France, March 11, 2018. Pascal Rossignol /Reuters

Marine Le Pen's future dims as France turns away from the right



Behind the cheers, standing ovations and an unopposed re-election as president of the anti-immigration, anti-Islam Front National, Marine Le Pen faces an uncertain future as France shows signs of resisting the far right's march in Europe.

At her party’s annual conference in the northern city of Lille at the weekend, Miss Le Pen unveiled a proposed new and theoretically softer name for the FN, Rassemblement National (National Rally). It was time, she said, to move from party of protest to party of government.

But the gathering coincided with an opinion poll indicating that despite the success of her close allies, the Northern League, in Italy's recent elections, and advances by extreme right groups elsewhere in Europe, more than half French voters regard the FN as a threat to democracy.

In another survey, the proportion rose to nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) who believe the FN would represent such a danger if in power. Both polls suggest support for Miss Le Pen as a future French president is also waning except among the party faithful, with only 16 per cent – against 24 per cent a year ago – believing she would make a good head of state.

At Lille, Miss Le Pen - soundly beaten by the centrist Emmanuel Macron is last year's French presidential elections - suffered further setbacks in her attempts to detoxify her party's unsavoury image.

Davy Rodriguez, deputy leader of the FN's youth wing, was suspended as a parliamentary aide after video footage appeared to show him calling a bar-room bouncer a "dirty African" and a "monkey".  He has resigned from all political functions.

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And the party left itself open to criticism for parading Steve Bannon, Donald Trump's former chief strategist and a leading figure of the alt-right movement in the United States, as a star speaker.

Mr Bannon told FN delegates to wear allegations of racism and xenophobia as "badges of honour – because every day we get stronger and they get weaker".

He said Miss Le Pen's party was part of a worldwide movement "bigger than France, bigger than Italy, bigger than Hungary, bigger than all of us". Even a leading FN figure, Gilbert Collard, a member of parliament, said such declarations risked the party "giving ammunition to our enemies".

Whatever Miss Le Pen thought of Mr Bannon's inflammatory words, she cannot have enjoyed hearing him describe her niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen, as a "rising star".

Only 28, Miss Marechal-Le Pen has already served as a member of parliament and is seen as a future contender for the party leadership despite currently being on a break from politics. For the French newspaper, Le Journal du Dimanche, she was the Lille conference's "very present absentee".

Despite internal divisions – Marine Le Pen's deputy, Florian Philippot, left last year to form his own party – she retains the overwhelming support of party members.

Although generally judged to have run a poor presidential campaign against Mr Macron, she polled more than 10 million votes, a third of those cast in the second-round runoff. And even some of Marine Le Pen’s critics accept she is sincere in her efforts to reinvent the FN and expel sinister elements.

But more and more French people see her niece as a serious rival. One poll found 68 per cent of FN sympathisers would welcome Miss Marechal-Le Pen as a presidential candidate.

Senior colleagues cite anti-Semitism as the main stumbling block to the party's ambitions.

The proposed name change – a vote will be held soon on adopting Rassemblement National as the new title – is part of the intended makeover.  But even here, Marine Le Pen invites controversy.

For a party anxious to shake off the trappings of fascism, racism and anti-Semitism, the name is uncomfortably close to Rassemblement National Populaire (National Popular Rally), a collaborationist movement during the Second World War.

FN members voted by only a narrow majority to consider changing a name Miss Le Pen and her most trusted allies regard as a "psychological barrier".

Marine Le Pen’s estranged father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, grandfather to Marion, condemned the planned re-baptism of the party he created in 1972 as an act of "political assassination"’.

His daughter led moves leading to his expulsion from the party in 2015 after he repeated claims that Nazi gas chambers were a mere "detail" of the war.

But he remains close to his granddaughter. Marion Marechal-Le Pen distances herself from his more extreme utterances but is even more anti-Islam than her mother and was described in 2015 by a conservative British newspaper, the Daily Mail, as the far right's poster-girl,  "a vision of Aryan chic whose appearance masks her unlovely ideology".

Mr Le Pen, now 89, told France Inter radio he reserved the right to resurrect the Front National's name.

For opponents, the change is irrelevant.

"The Front National can exclude, change name, logo, wallpaper," said Bernard Griveaux, spokesman for Mr Macron's government. "They replace Jean-Marie by Marine, maybe tomorrow Marine by Marion. But at heart, nothing changes."

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”