Donald Trump
What is his plan to confront ISIL?
Mr Trump has presented the Obama administration’s Middle East policy as a failure and has promised to “bomb the hell out of ISIS” if he becomes president. Details on how far Mr Trump is willing to go to confront ISIL remain vague but he has underlined the need to attack ISIL’s oil-producing areas and has said he would put boots on the ground if needed.
Mr Trump’s aggressive stance - which includes getting US oil companies to work oil fields after ISIL’s defeat - is at odds with his criticism of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Breaking with other candidates, the republican frontrunner does not seem to see a need to confront growing Russian power in the Middle East.
“If Putin wants to go and knock the hell out of ISIS, I am all for it, 100 per cent, and I can’t understand how anybody would be against it,” he said at the November Republican Party debate.
In December, Mr Trump said compliments Mr Putin made about him were “a great honour”.
Mr Trump has also advocated a break away from Saudi Arabia, a traditional US ally in the region, if the kingdom does not enhance the oil-for-security deal that has underlaid the relationship for 70 years. Mr Trump says that with America’s newly accessible domestic oil resources, the mutual interests are less apparent for the US and that the new equation should be oil and lots of cash in exchange for a US security presence in the Arabian Gulf region.
“We defend Saudi Arabia. We send our ships. We send our planes. Every time there’s a little ruckus, we send those ships and those planes. We get nothing. Why? They’re making a billion a day. We get nothing,” he said in August.
More recently, Mr Trump threatened to stop buying oil from Riyadh — even though most Arab Gulf oil is bought by Asia — if the kingdom does not do more to fight ISIL on the ground in Syria. "Without us, Saudi Arabia woudn't exist very long," he told the New York Times in late March referring to withdrawing US protection of Saudi Arabia if Riyadh doesn't pay Washington for its security presence.
Following the attacks in San Bernardino, California in December – carried out by a Muslim American citizen and his Pakistani wife – Mr Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslims from entering the US “until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on”.
Previously, in the aftermath of the November 13 Paris attacks, Mr Trump had said he would be in favour of a database to track Muslims in the US.
Attempting to ban Muslims from entering the country or creating a database of Muslims in the US would likely rile anger and damage ties across the Middle East and the broader Muslim world.
Beyond potential restrictions on the Muslims in the US, Mr Trump has vowed to deport Syrian refugees in the country, saying some among them “could be ISIS”.
He has also made remarks that the world would be a better place if Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi were still in power.
What will he do about the Iran deal?
Mr Trump’s position on how his administration would deal with Iran is riddled with contradictions.
It remains unclear how he would approach the nuclear deal that will have been in place for more than a year by the time the next president is elected. Mr Trump suggested in a detailed foreign policy interview with the New York Times last month he may try to renegotiate what he called a “disaster” deal, but also said the US should benefit economically through trade with Iran..
What does he know about the Middle East?
By his own admission, Mr Trump does not know much about the region.
In a September radio interview, he fumbled over the Middle East’s conflicts.
Asked if he was familiar with Iranian General Qassem Suleimani, and told that he was the commander of the Quds Force, Mr Trump briefly replied about how the US has not done enough to support the Kurds.
Mr Trump was then asked if he knew some of the regional players like Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri, Jabhat Al Nusra commander Abu Mohammed Al Jolani and ISIL head Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. At the time, Mr Trump appeared stumped.
“I’ll tell you honestly, I think by the time we get to office, they’ll all be changed. They’ll all be gone,” he said.
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Ted Cruz
What is his plan to confront ISIL?
Ted Cruz, the far-right senator, has the most radical positions on what US Middle East policy should be, as well as the most isolationist vision.
He has not provided many details on his strategy to defeat ISIL, but the plan should “not be shackled by concerns over environmental impact or the most restrictive rules of engagement that our armed forces have ever known”, Mr Cruz said during his main foreign policy speech in December.
He has also advocated “carpet bombing them into oblivion” and insinuated that nuclear weapons could be used.
“I don’t know if sand can glow in the dark, but we’re going to find out,” he declared during a campaign event last year.
Along with vastly increasing the scale of aerial bombing, Mr Cruz’s plan to defeat ISIL relies heavily on directly arming the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga even if that angers Baghdad. He also implied that the Jordanian and Egyptian militaries — “in which the United States has made significant investments” — should be the main ground force against the extremists.
He has said the US should not try to topple the Assad regime and that the US has “no business sticking our nose in that civil war”.
In his major foreign policy speech, Mr Cruz quoted Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “When two of your enemies are fighting each other, I say don’t strengthen one or the other. I say weaken both.”
He also is open to using more US ground troops if it means a quicker defeat of ISIL, and then promptly bring them home. Mr Cruz advocates building a wall along the southern US border — “terrorists can simply swim across the Rio Grande”, he has said — and not allowing any Muslim refugees into the country. He also has said he will increase surveillance of American Muslims.
What does he know about the Middle East?
Mr Cruz’s views on the Middle East appear to be formed primarily through the prism of Israel, and the world view of his right-wing counterparts there. Mr Obama is an “apologist” for extremism who fails to call the underlying problem by what Mr Cruz says is its true name: “radical Islamic terrorism”. Mr Obama has refused to use this term because he says it gives ISIL the religious legitimacy it craves. Mr Cruz is dismissive of such notions, saying “we need the Churchillian clarity and vision that prime minister Netanyahu provides because he doesn’t have the time for the political correctness that so hamstrings the Obama administration”. The US should help allies like Israel and others, even if they are not democracies, fight this primary threat rather than worry about human rights or political reform.
What will he do about the Iran deal?
Mr Cruz has said he will “repeal every word” of the Iran nuclear deal on his first day in office. He described Mr Obama as a modern Neville Chamberlain because of the deal.
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Hillary Clinton
What is her plan to confront ISIL?
Mrs Clinton has closely tied herself to Barack Obama – whose administration she was a part of – by frequently telling campaign trail crowds that he does not get the credit he deserves. But her Middle East policy is a departure from the president’s and seeks to more aggressively counter ISIL.
Mrs Clinton continues to endorse a no-fly zone in Syria to protect moderate rebel factions who are fighting the Assad regime. She also supports an expanded special forces presence and was critical over the speed of deployment of the small number of special forces operators currently in the country.
“Like President Obama, I do not believe that we should again have 100,000 American troops in combat in the Middle East,” she said in a speech to the Council of Foreign Relations in November.
Mrs Clinton also believes the US must confront Mr Putin’s involvement in the region to “stop his bullying” and make clear that Russia’s presence in Syria on behalf of government forces is not acceptable.
How much does she know about the Middle East?
Mrs Clinton has the most foreign policy experience of any of the candidates, serving as US president Barack Obama’s secretary of state from January 2009 to January 2013. Mrs Clinton speaks confidently about world affairs and is not prone to the factual slip ups that some of the other candidates are when it comes to talking about the Middle East.
What will she do about the Iran deal?
Mrs Clinton was a strong advocate of the Iran deal, but noted that it has to be “part of a larger strategy toward Iran”.
Recently, Mrs Clinton has called for new sanctions to be placed on Iran after the Islamic Republic carried out fresh ballistic missile tests they said were designed to hit Israel.
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Bernie Sanders
What is his plan to confront ISIL?
Mr Sanders, who opposed the 2003 Iraq war from the beginning and has been skeptical and hesitant of US use of power abroad, adopts a more hands off approach to the region than the other candidates.
Instead of redoubled US efforts to combat ISIL, Mr Sanders has encouraged increased international cooperation and said the fight on the ground should fall to countries in the region, both friends and foes.
“We have to understand that the Muslim nations in the region – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Jordan – all of these nations, they’re going to have to get their hands dirty, their boots on the ground. They are going to have to take on ISIS,” he said earlier this month. Mr Sanders’ position that the fight against ISIL “is nothing less than a battle for the soul of Islam” is certain to dismay Muslims in the US and abroad — including Gulf allies — who consider the group’s ideology to be from the lunatic fringe, and anathema to “the soul of Islam”.
He made this comment in the context of demanding Arab Gulf countries specifically to be the main ground force against ISIL, echoing some of Mr Trump’s sentiments.
“These very wealthy and powerful nations in the region can no longer expect the United States to do their work for them. Uncle Sam cannot and should not do it all,” Mr Sanders said last month. “We are not the policeman of the world.”
Mr Sanders also supports the Obama administration’s policy of engagement with adversaries when interests overlap. Although he has given scant details of how he would achieve different results with similar tactics. Under his leadership, the US would “work out a political settlement with Russia and Iran to get Assad out of power”, he said in the foreign policy speech.
Mr Sanders, who is Jewish, has been the candidate most critical of Israel so far.
He was the only presidential candidate to skip this year’s meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee – the most prominent pro-Israel lobby group in the nation. On Sunday, Mr Sanders told CNN that Israel’s use of force in the 2014 Gaza war was “disproportionate”.
How much does he know about the Middle East?
Mr Sanders was widely ridiculed by Republicans and others at the November 14 Democratic Party debate when he said that climate change leads to terrorism.
While concerns over water scarcity are well known and longstanding in the Middle East, many in the region who join ISIL and other extremist groups would likely not cite climate change as their driving force.
Mr Sanders has been seen as comparatively weak on foreign policy experience and expertise compared to his rival Mrs Clinton.
He has been prone to dodging specific foreign policy questions, often trying to turn the conversation back to things like his opposition of the 2003 Iraq war or the scars of post-traumatic stress disorder on US veterans from past military interventions.
What will he do about the Iran deal?
Mr Sanders supports the deal and says his administration would take “a more balanced approach toward Iran” and implied that its theocratic system should not be a barrier to engagement, just as it does not prevent a US partnership with Riyadh.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
