ABU DHABI // The current crisis between Qatar and its two powerful neighbours is the most far-reaching internal dispute the GCC has yet faced, with the potential to have a lasting impact on the bloc’s future.
Qatar has been at the heart of tensions with fellow GCC members before, most notably throughout the 1990s, but the current eruption of hostility has its roots in Doha’s strategic decisions after the Arab Spring in 2011. Qatar bet on the ascendancy of Islamist parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and backed them as a means to spread its influence across the Middle East and North Africa.
For Riyadh, and for Abu Dhabi in particular, the Brotherhood is viewed as a threat, and as the Arab Spring devolved into regional turmoil, Doha became increasingly at odds with its two most powerful Gulf allies. The differences came to a head in 2014, after the overthrow of Egypt’s Islamist president, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE withdrawing their ambassadors.
The new Qatari emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, agreed to demands over Doha’s support for Islamist groups and the criticism of fellow GCC members through Qatar-based media, and Saudi King Salman, who ascended the throne in 2015, sought to bring Qatar back into the fold amid the kingdom’s rivalry with Iran.
But it is now clear that Sheikh Tamim’s promises on curbing support for Islamist groups were not kept to the expected degree, made worse by an unacceptably ambiguous stance on Iran.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia, emboldened as the twin pillars of Donald Trump’s Middle East policy, have apparently decided that the risks posed by Qatar’s policies are too great, and are willing to raise the stakes higher than ever before to force Qatar to fall fully into line with them.
What is not clear is what Sheikh Tamim can do this time to address the deep-seated problems, and what concessions will be sufficient. Already, risk consultancies are reporting to clients that a change in leadership could be required to defuse the crisis.
“Any de-escalation to the crisis is likely to require a leadership change in Qatar,” Control Risks said in a note on Monday. “Such a resolution would likely be triggered by, first, a consensus within the Al Thani family that mediation or smaller concessions would not appease Saudi Arabia, the UAE and ... second, signals from the US that it would not pressure these countries to back down.”
To avoid such a drastic outcome, observers say, a broad shutdown of Qatari media would be required, along with the expulsion of a number of senior figures involved with outlets such as Al Araby Al Jadeed and others. “Fifty per cent of this is about their media machine,” said one UAE-based observer. “From a Gulf perspective, it’s gone out of control.”
Beyond the measures Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have already taken to isolate Qatar, there have been threats of even greater economic levers in store, with a Saudi official saying international firms may be forced to choose between conducting business with Doha or Riyadh, and by extension the UAE, the two largest Gulf economies.
“Clients are calling and checking on what precautionary action they need to take because they do not want to undermine their business relations with the UAE and Saudi,” said Ghannem Nusseibeh, the founder of Cornerstone Global Associates, a London-based strategy and management consultancy.
Qatar has little leverage over its neighbours, but its foreign relationships are its greatest asset.
The forward headquarters of the US Central Command at Al Udeid airbase is key for Doha. “Clearly having the US there is a big thing for the Qataris because it gives them an external guarantee of security,” said Kristian Ulrichsen, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House in London. “Right now the presence of Al Udeid might be the only thing standing between Qatar” and an even more serious crisis.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would be happy to see the base relocated, but the permissive agreement with Washington (it is the only Gulf base where it can land B-52 bombers), its utility in ongoing operations and America’s strategic desire not to be dependent on one country or axis, mean that this is highly unlikely in the short term.
So far, the US defence and foreign secretaries have called for de-escalation and offered to mediate. “A big question, and I think this is something Washington will be looking at now, is how can these states come to the table and resolve their differences,” said Andrew Bowen, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank “Because this is very disruptive” for US interests in the region.
Other world powers may also try to mediate, given their dependence on Qatar’s gas exports, which have not been interrupted for now. Others, such as Russia and Turkey, have other important strategic and economic ties to Doha.
“Qataris have been very strategic in using these deals to bolster their security and give external partners a vested interest in Qatar’s survival,” said Mr Ulrichsen. “We may be seeing that now put to the test if things escalate over the next few days.”
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
ACC%20T20%20Women%E2%80%99s%20Championship
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20fixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2017%20v%20Oman%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%2018%20v%20Singapore%3Cbr%3EMonday%2C%20June%2020%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EWednesday%2C%20June%2022%20v%20Qatar%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2024%2C%20semi-final%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%2025%2C%20final%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chaya%20Mughal%20(captain)%2C%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20Priyanjali%20Jain%2C%20Rithika%20Rajith%2C%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20Sanchin%20Singh%2C%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20Suraksha%20Kotte%2C%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E470hp%2C%20338kW%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20620Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh491%2C500%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Top 10 most polluted cities
- Bhiwadi, India
- Ghaziabad, India
- Hotan, China
- Delhi, India
- Jaunpur, India
- Faisalabad, Pakistan
- Noida, India
- Bahawalpur, Pakistan
- Peshawar, Pakistan
- Bagpat, India
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
SPECS%3A%20Polestar%203
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELong-range%20dual%20motor%20with%20400V%20battery%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E360kW%20%2F%20483bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E840Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20628km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210kph%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh360%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A