LONDON // David Cameron's political marriage of convenience reaches its 100th day today and, so far, the relationship has held firm. But there are testing times to come. "The next 100 weeks - not days - will define this government," said John McTernan, a former political secretary to Tony Blair.
Britain's first coalition government since the end of the Second World War formed six days after the ruling Labour Party lost the May 5 general election. Mr Cameron's Conservatives emerged with the most seats, but not enough for an overall majority. After days of wrangling, they formed an unlikely alliance with the third-place Liberal Democrats. Within 50 days, the new government introduced an emergency budget, announcing spending cuts and tax increases in an effort to plug a £150 billion (Dh8.6bn) hole in the public purse. In October, even more drastic measures will be announced.
"Reducing public spending has already led to some controversial decisions and, with the autumn spending review approaching, we are on the brink of many more," wrote Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democrats, in an article in The Observer this week. Mr Clegg's party has emerged as the big losers among the public after the first 100 days. Its standing in the opinion polls has fallen 10 points from the 23 per cent share of the vote it had in the election.
"Lib Dem supporters trusted Nick Clegg to campaign against the Conservatives' VAT rise and damaging cuts to public services. Now they feel badly let down," said a Labour Party spokesman yesterday. Nevertheless, the Liberal Democrats do hold positions of real power in Mr Cameron's government and the ministers from both parties appear to be working well together. The Cameron-Clegg relationship also appears close - so close, in fact, that it was dubbed the "Brokeback Coalition" by the right-wing Tory MP David Davis last month.
Mr Cameron said later that if his government were to be compared to a cowboy movie, he preferred "True Grit". Inevitably, the economy has dominated the government's agenda. Ministers have outlined cuts twice as drastic as those being proposed by Labour and the public's verdict has not been favourable. Although 56 per cent agreed that deep spending cuts were necessary, 57 per cent also said they were "disappointed" with the government's performance so far, according to a Harris Interactive poll published in the Daily Mail on Monday. Only 23 per cent felt that the UK was better off with a coalition government and 31 per cent said they would prefer that a single party run the country.
Among political pundits, however, the verdict is more favourable. "The novelty of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats working together has largely worn off. Support for the opposition Labour party has hardened over concern about the scale and severity of the cuts the government unveiled in its emergency budget in June," the Financial Times said this week. "But given the hasty way the Con-Lib coalition was constructed after an inconclusive election result, it has bedded in remarkably well."
The Times praised Mr Cameron. "His imaginative decision to seek a coalition rather than rule as a minority was wise as well as brave. It has given the administration both legitimacy and momentum." Mr McTernan agreed, saying that Mr Cameron has not only played a sure hand at home, but abroad as well. "On the international stage he has looked assured. He bonded with Obama and has looked the part abroad. He brings a new tone to Britain's place in the world, more modest about what we can achieve," he said.
But the real test, he believes, will come with the spending review in the autumn. "That will be when the business of government turns serious. There are no easy choices. One man's waste is another man's wage," Mr McTernan said. The coalition could also be in trouble because Liberal Democrat backbench MPs are increasingly unhappy about Mr Clegg's apparent willingness to go along with Mr Cameron's cuts, particularly to social and welfare programmes.
But Mr Clegg said the coalition government has confounded critics in its first 100 days. The deputy prime minister, speaking at a public meeting in London on Monday, insisted that the coalition would not fall apart and would survive for a full, five-year term. He accepted that the spending cuts would be difficult, but said he thought the public eventually would conclude that the government had made the right decisions.
"I think a lot of people felt that a coalition government would be, by definition, some sort of insipid mush. Actually, what we are finding now, after 100 days, is that we are being accused of doing completely the opposite: being too radical, too reforming." Mr Cameron has appeared increasingly self-assured. He is, in fact, on holiday this week with his family. Though Mr Clegg will be in day-to-day charge of running government business, Downing Street has made it plain that Mr Cameron will still be running the country.
James Forsyth, political editor of The Spectator, believes the arrangement has worked well. "Their relationship has turned British politics upside down," he said. "A hundred days ago, it was assumed that in politics it was the Conservative Party versus the rest. But the coalition has changed all that." He said that after these first 100 days "the talk is of whether the Tories and the Liberal Democrats can forge an anti-Labour alliance that can keep the coalition in power for a decade or more".
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