BERLIN // Chancellor Angela Merkel's challenger in the September general election, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, has been labelled as a "sleeping tortoise" after Sunday's European poll rout, which has reinforced doubts that the grey diplomat can oust her. Mr Steinmeier campaigned heavily for his centre-left Social Democrats in the European parliamentary elections but was unable to capitalise on the economic crisis and saw the party slump to its worst ever result in a nationwide poll, just 20.8 per cent.
He made matters worse with a lacklustre performance in a TV interview on Sunday that prompted one newspaper commentator to name him "honorary chairman of the Help the Insomniacs Society". Mr Steinmeier, 53, who has spent most of his career as a civil servant, reacted irritably to questions from the interviewer and dismissed suggestions that he was not charismatic enough to inspire Germans. "Politics isn't a casting show," said the white-haired, bespectacled bureaucrat who has never campaigned for office.
Media analysts beg to differ and say Barack Obama's victory in the US presidential election highlighted once again the importance of being able to communicate in an age where politics is driven by TV and the internet. They say Mr Steinmeier is neither telegenic nor vigorous enough to offset the waning popularity of his party. "He lacks the charisma to be a frontman in a modern popular democracy," said Richard Schütze, who runs a media consultancy that coaches politicians and business people in communications skills.
"The fact that the corners of his mouth often droop down doesn't help. He's more a diplomat than a politician. He tends to avoid conflicts and he's not the kind of person who can convincingly convey a vision, a dream of tomorrow, and inspire people to follow him." As chief of staff to the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder in the previous SPD-led government, Mr Steinmeier gained a reputation in Berlin circles as an efficient behind-the-scenes fixer.
But he has struggled to shake off his image as a technocrat since he became foreign minister under Mrs Merkel in the awkward coalition of conservatives and SPD that has ruled Germany since 2005. Analysts say it will take nothing short of a miracle for him to unseat Mrs Merkel, riding high in opinion polls for her handling of the financial crisis. The venerable SPD, Germany's oldest party which originated in the 19th century labour movement and opposed Hitler, has never recovered from its slump in popularity in 2004 and 2005 when it imposed radical welfare cuts that drove away many of its core working class voters.
In the European vote, Mrs Merkel's conservatives were 17 points ahead of the SPD. That understates the SPD's true strength because the low turnout skewed the result in favour of the conservatives, liberals and Greens whose supporters tend to be older and better educated, and hence more likely to vote. Nevertheless, most commentators say the gap cannot be closed in the three and a half months left until the election.
What the SPD needs now is an instinctive, media savvy, publicity-hungry campaigner like Mr Schröder, who never missed an opportunity to score points by kissing babies, kicking footballs and coining sound bites. Above all, Mr Schröder managed to win points by seizing on issues that struck a chord with the public. In 2002, he came from behind to win re-election by exploiting public opposition to the looming Iraq war. In 2005, he lost to Mrs Merkel by the narrowest of margins after whittling down her lead by labelling her a ruthless neo-liberal.
Mr Steinmeier, a carpenter's son from northern Germany who became a lawyer before entering politics, lacks that skill, analysts say. "Steinmeier just isn't Schröder. He doesn't have the experience," Manfred Güllner, director of the Forsa polling institute, said. "The SPD has been losing support for years and Schröder managed to bridge the gap with skilfully fought campaigns." According to Mr Schütze, the media consultant, Mr Steinmeier has been working hard to copy Mr Schröder's style. "He's adopted a similar tone of voice, so much so that you'd think it's Schröder if you close your eyes. His gestures are the same, too. His sentences have become shorter and punchier, although he still has trouble expressing a political vision in a simple way that people can understand."
Mrs Merkel's own campaigning skills and rhetorical powers are limited, but she has been a safe pair of hands over her first term, and voters approve of her economic management and the international role she has played in mediating at EU and world summits. Her presidential style of leadership - staying out of party squabbles so that she cannot be blamed when something goes wrong - has helped. "There's something mystical about her aura now," said Mr Schütze. "She responds to criticism with a smile and a wall of silence that seems to enhance her power."
Worryingly for the SPD, the party has not been able to reap political benefits from the financial crisis even though it has positioned itself as a defender of working class jobs by campaigning in favour of state bailouts of ailing companies. "People aren't giving the SPD credit for the positive impact its welfare reforms have had, and for the work it's done in the current government," said Bernhard Wessels, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University.
"The financial crisis is hurting the party because voters traditionally place more faith in conservatives when the economy's in trouble." Following the heavy criticism of his style this week, Mr Steinmeier's speech at an SPD congress this weekend is being billed as an important test for him. But SPD leaders have been at pains to quash speculation that the party might ditch him as their nominee. "That would be political suicide so close to the election," said Professor Jürgen Falter, an analyst at Mainz University. "Besides, they have no one better."
dcrossland@thenational.ae
