The weekend curfew imposed on major Turkish cities could lead to a jump in coronavirus cases after the lockdown’s short notice prompted crowds to gather at shops and bakeries, the head of the country’s medical association said.
Thousands of people, many without mandatory face masks, rushed out when the government declared a 48-hour lockdown in 31 cities just two hours before it was due to start on Friday night.
The mismanagement of the announcement led Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu to offer his resignation on Sunday evening. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rejected his resignation and on Monday announced another lockdown in cities this coming weekend.
Sinan Adiyaman, chair of the Turkish Medical Association, said that given the large numbers of people who mixed on Friday in cities such as Istanbul and Ankara, and the virus’s two- to 14-day incubation period, there was “a big possibility to see an increase in positive cases” over the next two weeks..
"Eighty per cent of people don't know they are sick and those people, tens, hundreds of thousands of those people, went out the night before [the curfew]," he told The National.
“Particularly in cities, where the virus is widespread according to the data provided by the Ministry of Health, those people spread the virus to others on that night. Unfortunately, this is a scientific fact.”
Turkey, which recorded 56,956 cases, including 1,198 deaths, as of Sunday, has closed its borders, halted international flights, limited domestic travel and imposed curfews on those aged under 20 and over 65 in a bid to contain the virus. It has also shut bars, gyms and other facilities as well as made face masks compulsory in enclosed spaces.
“All the efforts that have been introduced up to now have been ruined in just one night,” Prof Adiyaman said. “As a result of this, we as scientists believe that in the next five to 14 days there will unfortunately be an increase in positive cases.”
Calling the planning for the lockdown “disastrous”, he added: “I wish this had been done correctly and announced two to three days before. People should have been informed so they wouldn’t act as they did the other night.”
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Coronavirus around the world
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Mr Erdogan has resisted calls for a full lockdown, saying factories must continue uninterrupted to support exports, the country’s main source of foreign currency. Tourism, another significant external revenue stream, is unlikely to recover from the effects of the virus this year.
"If production stops it means Turkey's exports will also stop, which means foreign currency income will stop," said Taylan Buyuksahin, economics editor at the Sozcu newspaper.
“Two of Turkey’s most important incomes are tourism and the export of goods. If they announce a full shutdown these exports will also stop.” A total curfew would also see the government lose tax revenues.
Turkey’s budget deficit rose 70 per cent to 123.7 billion liras (Dh67 billion) last year and the economy is still struggling to recover from a 2018 currency crisis. Inflation stands at just under 12 per cent while unemployment hovers at around 14 per cent.
On Sunday, Mr Erdogan’s spokesman reiterated his refusal to accept financial support from the International Monetary Fund.
Istanbul, Turkey’s financial capital, is the epicentre of the outbreak, accounting for six out of 10 confirmed cases.
“To shut down Istanbul means stopping the tax income flowing to Ankara and losing foreign exchange,” Mr Buyuksahin said. “But if the positive cases increase, they will eventually be forced to decide on a shutdown.
“The government knows that the budget is empty and the virus is spreading. We don’t know how they will deal with this.”
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
