President Vladimir Putin’s reference to the conflict in Ukraine being a "war" is causing confusion and alarm in Russia.
While many observers believe his use of the word was unintentional, it cannot be ruled out that he could be preparing the Russian people for a formal declaration of war to allow conscription to bolster his failing campaign.
Within days of the Russian invasion the terms "war" and "invasion" were outlawed under a new censorship law signed by the Russian leader, with anyone publicising them facing a penalty of 15 years in prison.
Since then Putin and the vast majority of Russians have been careful to use only the official state construction of Ukraine being a “special military operation”.
But in his annual address to journalists in Moscow, Mr Putin said: “Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war.”
Many Russians have been jailed for using the term, mainly on social media, although pro-Kremlin bloggers do not appear to suffer the same sanction.
But Mr Putin’s use of the “war” word has “prompted some confusion within the Russian information space”, according to the Institute for Study of War think tank.
“The confusion indicates that Putin’s limited war narrative may conflict with his presentation of the ‘special military operation’ as a fight for Russia’s sovereignty while not being an official war,” the ISW said.
US officials told the CNN television network that they believe the “war” comment was unintentional but they would observe what Kremlin figures say in the coming days to come to a firmer conclusion.
There is the possibility that Mr Putin might have deliberately used the word. Under current legislation he can call only on mobilised reserves to fill the ranks of those lost in Ukraine , where there has been an estimated 100,000 Russian casualties, including about 25,000 dead.
The reserves mobilisation Mr Putin ordered over the summer produced about another 100,000 soldiers, varying in age from 18 to 65, but a similar number fled Russia to avoid being becoming a “mobik” ― mobilised man ― and possible death in Ukraine.
But if Mr Putin formally declared war, it would need a process that would have to be signed off in the Duma. That would allow him to draw on a significantly larger pool of men, allowing the armed forces to double from their current level of about one million personnel under arms.
But that would come with significant political risk because it would mean thousands of sons from Russia’s middle class being called up for frontline duty.
So far their silence on the atrocities and destruction meted out on Ukraine has allowed Mr Putin to keep a strong grip on the Kremlin.
Mr Putin is potentially seeding the ground for an announcement after he made the rare admission on Tuesday that the conflict in eastern Ukraine was “extremely difficult”.
“It does fit into some things he said in the past,” said Fiona Hill, who has performed intelligence roles for three US presidents.
“He called this at first a special military operation,” she told the BBC. “That gives you this sense of something quickly decisive, something very strategic, that's supposed to be well executed. And he still thinks that he can pull it off.
“But he is preparing the population for this going to be much more difficult and going on into a second year and maybe longer if necessary.”
-
A building burned from a strike as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Bakhmut. Reuters -
Antonina, a refugee from Bakhmut in Donetsk region, with dogs she rescued in Izyum, Kharkiv. AFP -
A resident gives her neighbours hot food brought by volunteers in Izyum. AFP -
A Ukrainian soldier salutes as he works to build a bunker with sand in Bakhmut. Reuters -
Volodymyr Kovalov, 77, carries tree branches attached to his bike as he collects wood for heating and cooking in Kherson region. AFP -
A local resident takes pictures of a destroyed monastery in Dolyna, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
A decoy dummy made with the clothes of a Russian soldier at the entrance of a destroyed cinema in Kamyanka, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
Destroyed houses in the city of Kamyanka. AFP -
Caesar, 50, a Russian who joined the Freedom of Russia Legion to fight on the side of Ukraine, stands in front of a destroyed monastery in Dolyna. AFP -
An employee stands next to a shelter at a stainless pipes plant in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region. AFP -
Ivan and Iryna Kalinin before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Iryna, who was pregnant, was killed in a Russian air strike on Mariupol's maternity hospital. Ivan returned to the occupied city to rebury his wife and baby. AP -
Natalia, 67, sits inside her house that was damaged in a Russian military strike, in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. Reuters -
Ukrainian soldiers ride in a military vehicle in Bakhmut, a city in the Donetsk enclave. AP -
Smoke billows from a building on fire after a Russian attack in Bakhmut. AP -
Sasha and her grandfather stand outside their home in Bakhmut. AP -
Ukrainian soldiers set up a barricade in Bakhmut. AP -
Nastya carries her cat as her mother Anna says goodbye to neighbours with whom they lived for months in a basement during Russian attacks in Soledar, a city in the Donetsk enclave of Ukraine. AP -
Anna and Nastya in the basement during a Russian attack nearby. AP -
A Ukrainian soldier is wheeled on a stretcher at a hospital in the Donetsk enclave. AP -
A woman looks a building damaged by Russian shelling in Kherson. AFP -
Oleksandra Koshkina, 85, sits in a car as she returns to her village of Torske, in the Donetsk enclave. Reuters -
A resident of Bakhmut walks along an empty street. Reuters -
A street market in Bakhmut. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier poses for a picture in the Donetsk enclave. Reuters -
Officials tend to a patient on a plane carrying Ukrainian Jewish refugees as they wait to disembark at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv. AFP
