Russia forces have “definitively lost the initiative” in the battle to seize eastern Ukraine and now face a major offensive in the south that is gathering momentum, western officials have disclosed.
Using US and British-supplied long-range artillery, the Ukrainians have been able to destroy vital Russian bridges close to the strategically important city of Kherson.
The offensive has seen Ukrainian troops cross the Dnipro River and they are now advancing, threatening to cut off thousands of Russian troops close to the “crown jewel” city of Kherson.
The Russians had suffered “eye-watering attrition in some units”, one of the western officials said, and have lost more than a third of their entire national tank force in fighting since the invasion began on February 24. It is believed that Ukrainian losses have declined from 100 a day to about 30.
But there are growing concerns that Moscow may resort to using weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear missiles, if defeat looks imminent.
In an extraordinarily upbeat assessment of Kyiv’s ability to oust the invaders, officials told journalists that “we can now say that Russia has definitively lost the initiative in the battle for the Donbas”.
The Russian offensive has been grinding in the east for four months, taking just two cities but at a high cost in men and arms for a relatively limited advance.
It now appears that the Russians are digging in, while across the battlefield there are serious issues of ammunition supply and low morale.
But it is in the south that the Ukrainians appear to be having the greatest success, using long-range missiles to destroy bridges and arms dumps.
The city of Kherson, the first to fall to Russia early in the campaign, is now in their sights.
“Russia's presence west of the Dnipro now looks increasingly vulnerable,” the official said. “Kherson, the crown of its occupation, is virtually cut off and its loss would severely undermine Russia attempts to paint the occupation as a success.”
He confirmed that the Ukrainians had used their western-supplied missiles to destroy a key bridge near Kherson.
According to Pentagon officials, the Himars multiple launch rocket system and GMLRS missiles have destroyed more than a hundred high-value targets, including command posts, ammunition depots, air-defence sites, radar and long-range artillery positions. The ability to “shoot and scoot” means that Ukrainian artillery losses to counter-battery fire have been limited.
“The Ukrainians' Kherson counteroffensive is now gathering pace and yesterday Ukrainian forces highly likely established a bridgehead south of a river that is a tributary of the Dnipro,” the official said.
“I don't want to overstate it … but seizing a bridgehead is militarily significant,” he added.
It was not known how many troops had managed to get across but it appeared they were in the thousands.
There was also a question over whether Russia’s generals with their monolithic “command culture” would be unable to “rise to the concurrent changes of a restored offensive in the east and the dynamic threat in the south”.
While Russia is still able to replace its lost equipment, it is reportedly struggling to recruit enough personnel, and resorting to more desperate measures to get troops, including from prisons.
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An elderly couple stands near a damaged school in the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. EPA -
At least one person was killed after shelling hit the school, the Ukrainian State Emergency Service said. EPA -
A woman walks past a destroyed market near a railway station in Donetsk. Reuters -
Municipal workers clean a street in Donetsk. Reuters -
A man passes destroyed buildings in the Ukrainian town of Siversk. AFP -
A destroyed school in Siversk. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman passes by destroyed buildings in Siversk. AFP -
A woman's home is repaired by volunteers after being destroyed by shelling in the village of Zalissya. AFP -
People fill up water canisters in Mykolaiv, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP -
Grain fields burn on the outskirts of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. AP Photo -
The mother of Ukrainian serviceman Abdulkarim Gulamov, who was killed in a fight against Russian troops in Kherson, attends his funeral in Kyiv. Reuters -
People carry pictures of Mr Gulamov at the funeral. Reuters -
Ukrainian service members fire a shell from a M777 Howitzer in Kharkiv. Reuters -
A man walks in front of a damaged school after a missile strike hit the city of Kramatorsk. EPA -
A cyclist rides past burnt cars after a Russian rocket strike in Kharkiv. AFP -
Rescuers and servicemen work at a school building damaged by a Russian military strike in Kramatorsk. Reuters -
Sasha, 12, a refugee from Ukraine at the humanitarian aid centre set up at the Global Expo exhibition hall in Warsaw, Poland. AFP -
Maksym and Andrii, 11-year-old boys, play with plastic guns at a self-made checkpoint along a motorway in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. AP -
A Ukrainian soldier nicknamed 'Oakland' guards his position at the front line in the Kharkiv region. AP -
Ukrainians look at destroyed Russian military equipment at an outdoor exhibition near the Church of the Three Saints in Kyiv. AFP -
A member of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) militia sits in a makeshift bunker near Avdiivka, in the Donbas region of Ukraine. EPA -
A DPR militia member monitors a section of the road near Avdiivka. EPA -
Ukrainians pass a heavily damaged shopping mall in the city of Kherson. AFP -
The rubble of a house in Moshchun village, about 20 kilometres outside Kyiv. EPA -
A resident helps a firefighter put out a fire after an air strike in the town of Bakhmut, in the breakaway enclave of Donetsk. AFP -
A woman surveys the devastation caused by an air strike in Bakhmut. AFP -
Part of a projectile fire by a rocket launcher lies embedded in a wheat field in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. AFP -
Members of the public look at a Ukrainian tank destroyed in a Russian attack, in Hostomel, north-west of Kyiv. EPA -
Burnt out cars destroyed in Russian attacks are piled up in Hostomel. EPA -
Jill Biden, US first lady, left, and US President Joe Biden welcome the first lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, to the White House. EPA -
Miami District Two commissioner Ken Russell, left, and Miami police chief Manuel Morales with weapons collected in the Guns 4 Ukraine initiative, at Miami City Hall in Florida. Guns bought back by Miami will be delivered to sister city Irpin, near Kyiv. EPA -
A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a Grad BM-21 multiple rocket launcher at the front line in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
A woman walks her dog in front of a block of flats hit by shelling in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. EPA -
A Kramatorsk resident peers out of a window lined with tape to reduce the impact of shattering glass. EPA -
The damaged windows of an apartment, after shells hit a residential area in Kramatorsk. EPA -
Rescuers working on a residential building partially destroyed by missile strike in Bashtanka, Mykolaiv as the Russian war in Ukraine continues. AFP -
An Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle lies by the roadside, having been destroyed by Russian forces in Ukraine. AFP
President Vladimir Putin has previously threatened the West with nuclear strikes if it attempts to intervene. However, it is also in Russian military doctrine to resort to nuclear weapons early on if its territory is threatened.
Asked by The National if this was a concern, the western official said: “Russia has other tools available which it could choose to employ which would escalate the situation”.
This could be chemical or biological weapons “which are deeply alarming and would provoke a worldwide moral response”.
He added: “It comes down to how threatened does the Russian state feel. The more threatened or cornered, it becomes the more likely it will be to reach for essentially the types of tools that you're talking about.”
