US and Gulf region set to 'rebalance' alliance after Ukraine

Impact of Russian invasion could also create opportunity for a nuclear deal between Washington and Iran, say experts

A Ukrainian soldier sits on a tank near Slovyansk, eastern Ukraine, where Russia have been building up forces. AFP

The Ukraine war could “reshape and rebalance” American alliances in the Middle East, leading analysts have said.

Russia's invasion is having a significant geopolitical impact on international relationships, with the Gulf region potentially able to secure increased security guarantees from Washington, a webinar by London-based think tank Chatham House heard.

It could also see a temporary nuclear agreement struck with Iran and have an impact on Moscow’s relations with Turkey and the war in Syria, said participants.

America’s low-key reaction over continued aggression from Iran — including attacks by Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Abu Dhabi in January in which three people were killed and on Saudi Arabia — had created “grievances” and “continued uncertainties,” Chatham House's Sanam Vakil said.

While she argued that a Nato-type treaty with the West was “unlikely”, the more probable scenario was “a strategic framework between the US, through United States Central Command, and Gulf players to co-ordinate on intelligence sharing … in a more multilateral way.”

She contended that for the Middle East the war provided an opening “to renegotiate their relationship with Washington … an opportunity for them to rebalance”.

The agreement could also build air and naval defences “to protect and shield the Gulf from the profound security threats from Iran”, Ms Vakil, deputy director of the think tank's Middle East and North Africa programme, said.

Over time, the arrangement could be broadened to bring in Jordan, Egypt and — potentially — Israel.

The idea was “a big sell and requires a lot of investment” but could emerge from the Ukraine war, she said.

John Sfakianakis, an associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa programme, said the interruption of key grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia might lead to crises in Egypt, Algeria and Jordan — “and of course Lebanon, which has been forgotten but has to be addressed at some point”.

A Russian Navy submarine sails in the Bosphorus, on its way to the Black Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey. Reuters

There had been grievances in the Gulf over the “uncertainty” of US engagement over the last decade that were “primarily driven by uncertainty over the revived Iran nuclear talks”, Ms Vakil told the webinar titled The war in Ukraine: Implications and responses from the Middle East.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was agreed by Iran and major powers to curtail Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions being eased. In 2018, Donald Trump, US president at the time, withdrew his country from the deal.

Part of a new US arrangement would be a renewal of the deal in which there was “a determined amount of time where Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear programme in exchange for perhaps a tolerance of this status quo”, Ms Vakil said.

The proposal is reflected in an open letter from the European Leadership Network, a pan-European think tank, urging for the JCPOA deal not to be ignored, with America and Iran showing greater flexibility.

Talks in Vienna ― which include Russia — stalled after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. This has raised “fears that previous progress will be undone”, said the signatories, who include two former heads of states, nine former foreign ministers and five former defence secretaries.

“At a time when transatlantic co-operation has become all the more critical to respond against Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, for US and European leaders to let slip the opportunity to defuse a nuclear crisis in the Middle East would be a grave mistake,” the letter said.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres visits Borodyanka, near Kyiv, where Russian forces are accused of killing civilians. AFP

Children play in the wreckage of a Russian armoured vehicle in Lukashivka, Chernihiv region, northern Ukraine. The village has been retaken by Ukrainian forces. EPA

A cyclist passes a destroyed building in Derhachi village, near besieged city Kharkiv, in north-eastern Ukraine. AFP

Burnt-out wreckage of a tank in Kolychivka village, Chernihiv region, northern Ukraine. EPA

A Ukrainian flag flies in a park in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. A rocket attack on the city railway station earlier in April killed at least 50 people. AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses a meeting of MPs in St Petersburg. EPA

Youngsters Faddei and Oleksandr play in front of a church damaged during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in the Chernihiv region. Reuters

A demonstrator turns emotional as she attends a rally in Kyiv demanding a humanitarian corridor to rescue civilians from Mariupol. Reuters

A Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-25 releases decoy flares as it provides air support to Ukrainian ground forces near central city of Yampil. AFP

An officer from National Guard of Ukraine surveys weapons left behind by Russian troops in Chernobyl. AFP

Mr Putin attends a meeting with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Moscow. Reuters

Members of a team from the International Atomic Energy Agency carry equipment as they arrive at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, in Chernobyl, Ukraine. AP

Ukrainian troops fire rockets from the city of Popasna, near Luhansk. EPA

Lithuanian musician Darius Mazintas plays a piano in front of the Central House of Culture destroyed during Russia's invasion, in the town of Irpin, outside Kyiv. Reuters

Ukrainian refugees Julia, second left, 32, and Miroslava, left, 11, walk away with relatives who received them after they crossed into Poland from Ukraine at the Dorohusk border. AFP

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets Mr Guterres in Moscow. AFP

US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Mark Milley, left, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, second left, and Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov, right, attend the Ukraine Security Consultative Group meeting at Ramstein airbase in Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany. Getty Images

Smoke rises from an oil terminal hit by fire in Bryansk, Russia. AP

People take pictures by the wreckage of a Russian military vehicle, in the village of Rusaniv, Kyiv region. Reuters

Smoke rises above the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant amid fighting in Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters

People carry a large Ukrainian flag as they attend a rally to mark the 77th anniversary of Liberation Day in Milan, Italy. The day remembers Italians who fought against the Nazis and Mussolini's troops during the Second World War. EPA

A Ukrainian soldier looks at a Russian ballistic missile's booster stage that fell in a field in Bohodarove, eastern Ukraine. AFP

People watch as a residential building burns after Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the Orthodox Easter service at the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow. EPA

A young girl in front of people carrying a huge Ukrainian flag during a peaceful demonstration entitled 'Solidarity with Ukraine' in Krakow, Poland. Reuters

A boy stands next to a wrecked vehicle in front of an apartment damaged during the conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters

This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows damage at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP

A Ukrainian man rides in front of a destroyed building in Kharkiv which had been shelled by the Russians. EPA

A Ukrainian Territorial Defence fighter in a shelter with an Easter Cake near Kharkiv. Ukrainians mark Orthodox Easter today. EPA

Residents receive Easter cakes and apples handed out by pro-Russian troops on Easter Day at the Svyato-Troitsky Church in the southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters

A woman photographs the scene of yesterday's shelling in the southern Ukraine city of Odesa. Eight people were killed, including a three-month child, and about 20 were wounded. EPA

A military chaplain blesses Ukrainian soldiers on the occasion of Orthodox Easter not far from the city of Izyum in Kharkiv. EPA

An internally displaced man walks with dogs in the Palace of Culture, which was damaged by shelling in Rubizhne, eastern Ukraine. AFP

Tulips grow next to a building destroyed by shelling in Rubizhne. AFP

Internally displaced people wait to receive food inside a factory that has been turned into a shelter, in Severodonetsk. AFP

Members of the Ukrainian Red Cross carry a woman, 92, to an ambulance from a bunker at a factory in Severodonetsk. AFP

Ambulance workers move an injured Ukrainian serviceman to a hospital in Donetsk. AP

A woman sits inside a subway station that has been turned into a shelter, on the outskirts of second largest Ukrainian city, Kharkiv. AFP

Residents shelter in a subway station in Kharkiv. AFP

Anastasiya Kryvoho attends a candlelight vigil for Ukraine on the Orthodox Holy Saturday, in Toronto, Canada. Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses a press conference with international media in an underground metro station in Kyiv. AFP

Firefighters work at the scene of a fire after shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. EPA

A family from Myrne, a town occupied by Russian forces, wait to register with police at an evacuation point for people fleeing from Mariupol, Melitopol and surrounding towns. Getty Images

Oleksandr, 25, meets his parents Olga, 49, and Oleksandr, 50, who fled from the Russian-occupied village of Lyubimivka, at the evacuation point in Zaporizhzhia. EPA

Residents walk near a damaged military vehicle in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Mariupol. AP

A heavily damaged apartment building in Horenka. Getty Images

Residents wrapped in blankets stand near their houses damaged by Russian shelling in Odesa. AP

A Ukrainian flag is installed on top of a gob pile in Lysychans, eastern Ukraine. AFP

A Ukrainian soldier rests at a checkpoint in Severodonetsk. AFP

Another significant impact on the Middle East was that Turkey’s fracturing relationship with Russia was having significant consequences, said Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at Chatham House.

This had led to a “Turkish, French and Greek joint effort in Mariupol” — the southern Ukrainian port under siege from Russian forces ― between nations that had previously been at loggerheads.

Turkey could also play a role in the energy supply to Europe but more importantly its closure to all warships entering the Black Sea under the Montreux Convention could have a significant long-term effect.

“A more prolonged period will have an impact on Russia in the conflict zone in Syria and Russian presence in Eastern Mediterranean because now Russia will not easily move naval assets,” he said.

Turkey also closed the airspace to military and civilian traffic from Russia to Syria that could create long-term problems for Moscow.

“We will see more and more friction emerging in the Turkey-Russian relationship,” Mr Dalay predicted.