The Ukraine war could “reshape and rebalance” American alliances in the Middle East, leading analysts have said.
Russia's invasion is having a significant geopolitical impact on international relationships, with the Gulf region potentially able to secure increased security guarantees from Washington, a webinar by London-based think tank Chatham House heard.
It could also see a temporary nuclear agreement struck with Iran and have an impact on Moscow’s relations with Turkey and the war in Syria, said participants.
America’s low-key reaction over continued aggression from Iran — including attacks by Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Abu Dhabi in January in which three people were killed and on Saudi Arabia — had created “grievances” and “continued uncertainties,” Chatham House's Sanam Vakil said.
While she argued that a Nato-type treaty with the West was “unlikely”, the more probable scenario was “a strategic framework between the US, through United States Central Command, and Gulf players to co-ordinate on intelligence sharing … in a more multilateral way.”
She contended that for the Middle East the war provided an opening “to renegotiate their relationship with Washington … an opportunity for them to rebalance”.
The agreement could also build air and naval defences “to protect and shield the Gulf from the profound security threats from Iran”, Ms Vakil, deputy director of the think tank's Middle East and North Africa programme, said.
Over time, the arrangement could be broadened to bring in Jordan, Egypt and — potentially — Israel.
The idea was “a big sell and requires a lot of investment” but could emerge from the Ukraine war, she said.
John Sfakianakis, an associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa programme, said the interruption of key grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia might lead to crises in Egypt, Algeria and Jordan — “and of course Lebanon, which has been forgotten but has to be addressed at some point”.
There had been grievances in the Gulf over the “uncertainty” of US engagement over the last decade that were “primarily driven by uncertainty over the revived Iran nuclear talks”, Ms Vakil told the webinar titled The war in Ukraine: Implications and responses from the Middle East.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was agreed by Iran and major powers to curtail Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions being eased. In 2018, Donald Trump, US president at the time, withdrew his country from the deal.
Part of a new US arrangement would be a renewal of the deal in which there was “a determined amount of time where Iran agrees to freeze its nuclear programme in exchange for perhaps a tolerance of this status quo”, Ms Vakil said.
The proposal is reflected in an open letter from the European Leadership Network, a pan-European think tank, urging for the JCPOA deal not to be ignored, with America and Iran showing greater flexibility.
Talks in Vienna ― which include Russia — stalled after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. This has raised “fears that previous progress will be undone”, said the signatories, who include two former heads of states, nine former foreign ministers and five former defence secretaries.
“At a time when transatlantic co-operation has become all the more critical to respond against Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, for US and European leaders to let slip the opportunity to defuse a nuclear crisis in the Middle East would be a grave mistake,” the letter said.
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UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres visits Borodyanka, near Kyiv, where Russian forces are accused of killing civilians. AFP -
Children play in the wreckage of a Russian armoured vehicle in Lukashivka, Chernihiv region, northern Ukraine. The village has been retaken by Ukrainian forces. EPA -
A cyclist passes a destroyed building in Derhachi village, near besieged city Kharkiv, in north-eastern Ukraine. AFP -
Burnt-out wreckage of a tank in Kolychivka village, Chernihiv region, northern Ukraine. EPA -
A Ukrainian flag flies in a park in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. A rocket attack on the city railway station earlier in April killed at least 50 people. AFP -
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses a meeting of MPs in St Petersburg. EPA -
Youngsters Faddei and Oleksandr play in front of a church damaged during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in the Chernihiv region. Reuters -
A demonstrator turns emotional as she attends a rally in Kyiv demanding a humanitarian corridor to rescue civilians from Mariupol. Reuters -
A Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-25 releases decoy flares as it provides air support to Ukrainian ground forces near central city of Yampil. AFP -
An officer from National Guard of Ukraine surveys weapons left behind by Russian troops in Chernobyl. AFP -
Mr Putin attends a meeting with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Moscow. Reuters -
Members of a team from the International Atomic Energy Agency carry equipment as they arrive at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, in Chernobyl, Ukraine. AP -
Ukrainian troops fire rockets from the city of Popasna, near Luhansk. EPA -
Lithuanian musician Darius Mazintas plays a piano in front of the Central House of Culture destroyed during Russia's invasion, in the town of Irpin, outside Kyiv. Reuters -
Ukrainian refugees Julia, second left, 32, and Miroslava, left, 11, walk away with relatives who received them after they crossed into Poland from Ukraine at the Dorohusk border. AFP -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets Mr Guterres in Moscow. AFP -
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Mark Milley, left, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, second left, and Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov, right, attend the Ukraine Security Consultative Group meeting at Ramstein airbase in Ramstein-Miesenbach, Germany. Getty Images -
Smoke rises from an oil terminal hit by fire in Bryansk, Russia. AP -
People take pictures by the wreckage of a Russian military vehicle, in the village of Rusaniv, Kyiv region. Reuters -
Smoke rises above the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant amid fighting in Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters -
People carry a large Ukrainian flag as they attend a rally to mark the 77th anniversary of Liberation Day in Milan, Italy. The day remembers Italians who fought against the Nazis and Mussolini's troops during the Second World War. EPA -
A Ukrainian soldier looks at a Russian ballistic missile's booster stage that fell in a field in Bohodarove, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
People watch as a residential building burns after Russian bombardment in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP -
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. Reuters -
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the Orthodox Easter service at the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow. EPA -
A young girl in front of people carrying a huge Ukrainian flag during a peaceful demonstration entitled 'Solidarity with Ukraine' in Krakow, Poland. Reuters -
A boy stands next to a wrecked vehicle in front of an apartment damaged during the conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters -
This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows damage at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP -
A Ukrainian man rides in front of a destroyed building in Kharkiv which had been shelled by the Russians. EPA -
A Ukrainian Territorial Defence fighter in a shelter with an Easter Cake near Kharkiv. Ukrainians mark Orthodox Easter today. EPA -
Residents receive Easter cakes and apples handed out by pro-Russian troops on Easter Day at the Svyato-Troitsky Church in the southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters -
A woman photographs the scene of yesterday's shelling in the southern Ukraine city of Odesa. Eight people were killed, including a three-month child, and about 20 were wounded. EPA -
A military chaplain blesses Ukrainian soldiers on the occasion of Orthodox Easter not far from the city of Izyum in Kharkiv. EPA -
An internally displaced man walks with dogs in the Palace of Culture, which was damaged by shelling in Rubizhne, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
Tulips grow next to a building destroyed by shelling in Rubizhne. AFP -
Internally displaced people wait to receive food inside a factory that has been turned into a shelter, in Severodonetsk. AFP -
Members of the Ukrainian Red Cross carry a woman, 92, to an ambulance from a bunker at a factory in Severodonetsk. AFP -
Ambulance workers move an injured Ukrainian serviceman to a hospital in Donetsk. AP -
A woman sits inside a subway station that has been turned into a shelter, on the outskirts of second largest Ukrainian city, Kharkiv. AFP -
Residents shelter in a subway station in Kharkiv. AFP -
Anastasiya Kryvoho attends a candlelight vigil for Ukraine on the Orthodox Holy Saturday, in Toronto, Canada. Reuters -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses a press conference with international media in an underground metro station in Kyiv. AFP -
Firefighters work at the scene of a fire after shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. EPA -
A family from Myrne, a town occupied by Russian forces, wait to register with police at an evacuation point for people fleeing from Mariupol, Melitopol and surrounding towns. Getty Images -
Oleksandr, 25, meets his parents Olga, 49, and Oleksandr, 50, who fled from the Russian-occupied village of Lyubimivka, at the evacuation point in Zaporizhzhia. EPA -
Residents walk near a damaged military vehicle in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Mariupol. AP -
A heavily damaged apartment building in Horenka. Getty Images -
Residents wrapped in blankets stand near their houses damaged by Russian shelling in Odesa. AP -
A Ukrainian flag is installed on top of a gob pile in Lysychans, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
A Ukrainian soldier rests at a checkpoint in Severodonetsk. AFP
Another significant impact on the Middle East was that Turkey’s fracturing relationship with Russia was having significant consequences, said Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at Chatham House.
This had led to a “Turkish, French and Greek joint effort in Mariupol” — the southern Ukrainian port under siege from Russian forces ― between nations that had previously been at loggerheads.
Turkey could also play a role in the energy supply to Europe but more importantly its closure to all warships entering the Black Sea under the Montreux Convention could have a significant long-term effect.
“A more prolonged period will have an impact on Russia in the conflict zone in Syria and Russian presence in Eastern Mediterranean because now Russia will not easily move naval assets,” he said.
Turkey also closed the airspace to military and civilian traffic from Russia to Syria that could create long-term problems for Moscow.
“We will see more and more friction emerging in the Turkey-Russian relationship,” Mr Dalay predicted.
