French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a closer-than-expected fight to be re-elected in the French presidential elections after a shock poll showed him barely in front of far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in a potential final-round vote.
A poll from Harris Interactive showed Mr Macron beating Ms Le Pen by only three points, 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, if they qualify for the final run-off in this Sunday’s first round of voting.
It is the closest result on record in a survey comparing the two candidates, who faced off in the second round of the 2017 election – when Mr Macron won by the far more convincing margin of 66 per cent to 34 per cent.
Other recent polls have shown Mr Macron, 44, with a larger but not invincible lead of six to eight points, after a bounce for the president following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave way to a burst of momentum for Ms Le Pen.
Ms Le Pen, the 53-year-old leader of the far-right National Rally who has sought to moderate her image in recent years, has focused on bread-and-butter issues such as the cost of living in France in the campaign’s final days.
Focusing on Ukraine, Mr Macron waited until the last moment to formally declare his candidacy and held his first major campaign rally on Saturday, eight days before the first round.
“I have been campaigning seriously, I've been in the field for six months ... others chose not to campaign, including the president of the republic,” said Ms Le Pen in a radio interview.
Supporters of mainstream parties have united in the past to keep Ms Le Pen and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen out of power but there are concerns that this “republican front” could be fraying.
“Marine Le Pen could be elected president,” said former prime minister Manuel Valls, who is supporting the centrist Mr Macron, in a guest article in French media. “It’s one minute to midnight.”
Mr Macron has sought to project statesmanship in his response to the Ukraine crisis, using France’s six-month presidency of the European Union to put himself at the centre of the bloc’s foreign and defence policy.
The Harris poll showed Mr Macron on course to win the first round with 26.5 per cent of the vote and Ms Le Pen in second with 23 per cent. The top two candidates qualify for the run-off two weeks later.
Left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon was in third with 17 per cent, while centre-right Valerie Pecresse and far-right Eric Zemmour were tied on 9.5 per cent after both lost steam following early surges in the polls.
Mr Macron would win far more comfortably against any of those candidates if Ms Le Pen failed to make the run-off, surveys suggest.
Environmentalist candidate Yannick Jadot and Socialist Party nominee Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, are some way off the pace in the 12-candidate field.
French presidential elections 2022 - in pictures
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer