Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are tipped to qualify for a run-off vote on April 24. Reuters
Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are tipped to qualify for a run-off vote on April 24. Reuters
Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are tipped to qualify for a run-off vote on April 24. Reuters
Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are tipped to qualify for a run-off vote on April 24. Reuters

Macron's lead narrows in French presidential election battle with Le Pen


Tim Stickings
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French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a closer-than-expected fight to be re-elected in the French presidential elections after a shock poll showed him barely in front of far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in a potential final-round vote.

A poll from Harris Interactive showed Mr Macron beating Ms Le Pen by only three points, 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, if they qualify for the final run-off in this Sunday’s first round of voting.

It is the closest result on record in a survey comparing the two candidates, who faced off in the second round of the 2017 election – when Mr Macron won by the far more convincing margin of 66 per cent to 34 per cent.

Other recent polls have shown Mr Macron, 44, with a larger but not invincible lead of six to eight points, after a bounce for the president following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave way to a burst of momentum for Ms Le Pen.

Ms Le Pen, the 53-year-old leader of the far-right National Rally who has sought to moderate her image in recent years, has focused on bread-and-butter issues such as the cost of living in France in the campaign’s final days.

Focusing on Ukraine, Mr Macron waited until the last moment to formally declare his candidacy and held his first major campaign rally on Saturday, eight days before the first round.

“I have been campaigning seriously, I've been in the field for six months ... others chose not to campaign, including the president of the republic,” said Ms Le Pen in a radio interview.

Supporters of mainstream parties have united in the past to keep Ms Le Pen and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen out of power but there are concerns that this “republican front” could be fraying.

“Marine Le Pen could be elected president,” said former prime minister Manuel Valls, who is supporting the centrist Mr Macron, in a guest article in French media. “It’s one minute to midnight.”

Mr Macron has sought to project statesmanship in his response to the Ukraine crisis, using France’s six-month presidency of the European Union to put himself at the centre of the bloc’s foreign and defence policy.

The Harris poll showed Mr Macron on course to win the first round with 26.5 per cent of the vote and Ms Le Pen in second with 23 per cent. The top two candidates qualify for the run-off two weeks later.

Left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon was in third with 17 per cent, while centre-right Valerie Pecresse and far-right Eric Zemmour were tied on 9.5 per cent after both lost steam following early surges in the polls.

Mr Macron would win far more comfortably against any of those candidates if Ms Le Pen failed to make the run-off, surveys suggest.

Environmentalist candidate Yannick Jadot and Socialist Party nominee Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, are some way off the pace in the 12-candidate field.

French presidential elections 2022 - in pictures

  • People walk past official campaign posters of French presidential election candidates Marine le Pen and French President Emmanuel Macron, in Paris, France. Reuters
    People walk past official campaign posters of French presidential election candidates Marine le Pen and French President Emmanuel Macron, in Paris, France. Reuters
  • French President Emmanuel Macron, who is running for re-election in the 2022 French election, at a campaign rally in Nanterre, Paris. Reuters
    French President Emmanuel Macron, who is running for re-election in the 2022 French election, at a campaign rally in Nanterre, Paris. Reuters
  • French far-right Reconquete party leader and 2022 presidential election candidate Eric Zemmour (C) throws his arms aloft at the end of a campaign rally at Trocadero in Paris. EPA
    French far-right Reconquete party leader and 2022 presidential election candidate Eric Zemmour (C) throws his arms aloft at the end of a campaign rally at Trocadero in Paris. EPA
  • Far-right Rassemblement National party MP Marine Le Pen takes a selfie with supporters. AFP
    Far-right Rassemblement National party MP Marine Le Pen takes a selfie with supporters. AFP
  • Les Republicains presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse delivers a speech on the campaign trail in the French Caribbean island of Guadeloupe. AFP
    Les Republicains presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse delivers a speech on the campaign trail in the French Caribbean island of Guadeloupe. AFP
  • Ruralist party 'Resistons!' presidential candidate Jean Lassalle is surrounded by supporters before delivering a speech in Toulouse, southern France. AFP
    Ruralist party 'Resistons!' presidential candidate Jean Lassalle is surrounded by supporters before delivering a speech in Toulouse, southern France. AFP
  • Official campaign posters of Marine le Pen and Emmanuel Macron pasted on bulletin boards near the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Reuters
    Official campaign posters of Marine le Pen and Emmanuel Macron pasted on bulletin boards near the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Reuters
  • Hundreds of public servants prepare party political propaganda to be mailed, only days before the first round of the presidential election in France. AFP
    Hundreds of public servants prepare party political propaganda to be mailed, only days before the first round of the presidential election in France. AFP
  • A supporter holds up a placard reading "With You" at an election campaign event for Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Bloomberg
    A supporter holds up a placard reading "With You" at an election campaign event for Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Bloomberg
  • Emmanuel Macron speaks to journalists at the Maison de la Radio in Paris. AFP
    Emmanuel Macron speaks to journalists at the Maison de la Radio in Paris. AFP
  • French far-left party Lutte Ouvriere (LO) presidential candidate Nathalie Arthaud (C) raises her hand at a rally at Zenith concert hall in Paris. AFP
    French far-left party Lutte Ouvriere (LO) presidential candidate Nathalie Arthaud (C) raises her hand at a rally at Zenith concert hall in Paris. AFP
  • Emmanuel Macron sings the French national anthem as he appears on a giant screen at the end of his first campaign meeting at the Paris La Defence Arena in Nanterre. AFP
    Emmanuel Macron sings the French national anthem as he appears on a giant screen at the end of his first campaign meeting at the Paris La Defence Arena in Nanterre. AFP
  • French Socialist Party presidential candidate Anne Hidalgo waves to supporters in Paris. AFP
    French Socialist Party presidential candidate Anne Hidalgo waves to supporters in Paris. AFP
  • French leftist party La France Insoumise presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon delivers a speech in Toulouse. AFP
    French leftist party La France Insoumise presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon delivers a speech in Toulouse. AFP
  • Europe Ecologie Les Verts presidential candidate Yannick Jadot plays football with youngsters at Andre-Malraux park in Nanterre. AFP
    Europe Ecologie Les Verts presidential candidate Yannick Jadot plays football with youngsters at Andre-Malraux park in Nanterre. AFP
  • A supporter of Valerie Pecresse holds a campaign poster in Paris. EPA
    A supporter of Valerie Pecresse holds a campaign poster in Paris. EPA
  • Marine Le Pen gives a speech during a campaign meeting in Stiring-Wendel. AFP
    Marine Le Pen gives a speech during a campaign meeting in Stiring-Wendel. AFP
  • French far-left party Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste presidential candidate Philippe Poutou delivers a speech at the Cirque d’Hiver in Paris. AFP
    French far-left party Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste presidential candidate Philippe Poutou delivers a speech at the Cirque d’Hiver in Paris. AFP
  • French Communist Party presidential candidate Fabien Roussel sings at the end of a campaign meeting at the Double Mixte venue in Villeurbanne. AFP
    French Communist Party presidential candidate Fabien Roussel sings at the end of a campaign meeting at the Double Mixte venue in Villeurbanne. AFP
  • Far-right party Debout La France presidential candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan speaks to a fisherman in Palavas-les-Flots, southern France. AFP
    Far-right party Debout La France presidential candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan speaks to a fisherman in Palavas-les-Flots, southern France. AFP
  • A campaign rally for Eric Zemmour in Paris. AFP
    A campaign rally for Eric Zemmour in Paris. AFP
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Updated: April 05, 2022, 12:54 PM