Britain and its allies are unlikely to send troops to intervene if Russia invades Ukraine, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said.
Mr Wallace said his comments would not be a surprise to Ukraine, which faces an unexplained Russian troop build-up on its eastern flank, because it is not a member of Nato.
His comments to The Spectator magazine come after weeks of warnings by Nato countries that Russia would face severe consequences if it attacks its former Soviet neighbour.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson signalled on Friday that the UK would turn to “diplomatic and economic powers” to deter Russia.
And Mr Wallace said that economic sanctions, such as cutting Russia off from an international payment network, were the most likely response.
Ukraine “is not a member of Nato so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia”, Mr Wallace said.
“We shouldn’t kid people we would. The Ukrainians are aware of that.”
US President Joe Biden has similarly played down the idea of American troops fighting Russian soldiers on the battlefield.
Nato said this week that the Russian troop movements near Ukraine showed no signs of slowing down, despite international condemnation.
Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, in a move not recognised by most of the international community.
The Kremlin denies planning a full invasion, but issued terms for a de-escalation on Friday which included a veto on Ukraine joining Nato.
It called on Washington to block Nato membership of any former Soviet country, referring to Georgia as well as Ukraine.
Other demands included limits on missile and a ban on Nato military activity in Moscow’s sphere of influence.
The US said it was willing to speak to Russia but regarded some of its proposals as unacceptable.
“There are some things in those documents that the Russians know will be unacceptable,” a senior US official said.
“But there are other things that we are prepared to work with and that merit some discussion.”
Ukraine’s western-leaning President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that Nato membership was a matter for his people, not for any other country.
“Our Euro-Atlantic course remains the same. Support for this course keeps growing in Ukrainian society,” he said.
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
