Tension rises in Korean stand-off

As anger grows over torpedoed Southern navy ship, Seoul threatens retaliation and Pyongyang says situation is 'a state of war'.

Police try to break up protesters trying to burn a North Korean flag during an anti-North Korea rally yesterday in Seoul.

BEIJING // The international community must respond to North Korean aggression, the US secretary of state Hillary Clinton said yesterday. Mrs Clinton failed to specify concrete measures but tension is escalating since an international inquiry blamed Pyongyang for torpedoing the South's navy corvette Cheonan, splitting it in two and killing 46 sailors.

Speaking in Seoul yesterday, Mrs Clinton reiterated her country's firm support for its major Asian ally. "This was an unacceptable provocation by North Korea and the international community has a responsibility and a duty to respond," she said. North Korea announced on Tuesday that it was cutting diplomatic relations with the South, a day after Seoul imposed severe trade restrictions in response to the torpedo attack in March.

Yesterday it dismissed South Korean officials from a joint industrial project in the Northern city of Kaesong, the last symbol of reconciliation between the two states. Earlier it threatened to fire on South Korean loudspeakers broadcasting propaganda across the border. The North's powerful National Defence Commission, headed by the country's leader, Kim Jong-il, has said it regards the situation as a "state of war".

Despite the threats, Seoul remains determined on retaliatory measures. "The South will deal with these North Korean threats unwaveringly and sternly," Chun Hae-sung, a spokesman for the South's ministry of unification, the main body that handles inter-Korean affairs, told reporters. Analysts worry about an armed conflict breaking out if Seoul goes ahead with propaganda broadcasts across the militarised border and Pyongyang responds militarily.

"There is real high possibility that it would lead to a military conflict," said Koo Kab-woo, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. South Korean authorities are trying to track four North Korean submarines that disappeared from radar screens after leaving their base earlier this week. Reflecting uncertainty, South Korea's financial markets fell yesterday. The market is "walking on thin ice" and the government is making an "all-out effort" to calm jittery foreign investors, South Korea's official Yonhap news agency reported.

"The situation is more dangerous than a week ago and a month ago," said Daniel Pinkston, a North Korea arms analyst who heads the International Crisis Group's Seoul office. But Mr Pinkston said fears are overblown by the media. On the North Korean submarines that disappeared from the South's radar screens, he said: "That probably happens a lot. But it becomes a news item now." He added: "Mutual deterrence is robust but deterrence could fail," he said.

Jin Canrong, an international relations expert at Renmin University in Beijing, said the chance for all-out war in the region is "not big", adding that the countries with stakes in the peninsula, including the US and China, would not let the situation get out of control. "The two Koreas are still playing their game. They are still measuring what next steps they are going to take," said Ken Jimbo, a security analyst with Keio University in Tokyo.

In Seoul, Mrs Clinton urged China, North Korea's long-time enabler, to help to "make a persuasive case for North Korea to change direction". Mr Jin in Beijing said China is conducting its own investigation into the matter. "China needs to talk with North Korea with the evidence presented by the South. China is doing its own investigation. It hasn't formed a decision yet." As a veto-wielding member of the United Nations Security Council, China's support would be essential to pass any punitive resolution against North Korea.

"China is simply buying time," said Han Suk-hee, an expert on Chinese-North Korean relations at Yonsei University in Seoul. He said China should take a clear stance on the matter. "About 100 countries around the world have already accepted the results of the international investigators. But China is still calling for calm," Mr Han said. Mr Jimbo said China's support for North Korea in this dispute is "very solid".

Mr Han agreed: "Between the roles of being a great power and a responsible ally to North Korea, China is weighing in more on the latter." [e-mail]