WASHINGTON // Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed will meet Barack Obama at the White House on Monday for annual talks that come at a crucial moment in US relations with the Arabian Gulf.
The US president is working to convince long-time allies in the region that he remains committed to their security if a deal is struck over Iran’s nuclear programme.
The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces has traditionally met with US presidents in the spring, but there has never been a moment when the stakes in the region have been so high and when Gulf countries have been so directly involved.
At the top of the agenda are the Iran talks, but the leaders will also discuss Egypt, Libya, the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen and the fight against ISIL in Iraq and Syria.
“Events in the region and the upcoming planned GCC summit makes it that much more important than the usual annual trip,” said Marcelle Wahba, the US ambassador to the UAE between 2001 and 2004, and president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington think tank.
Sheikh Mohammed met with Mr Obama’s national security adviser, Susan Rice, on Saturday and will meet secretary of state John Kerry and defence secretary Ash Carter.
The UAE’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah is also in Washington and both he and the Crown Prince will also meet congressional leaders.
The US administration is currently engaged in intense talks with diplomats from Gulf countries aimed at finalising an agreement on a more formalised security relationship ahead of a summit hosted by Mr Obama with GCC leaders next month. They hope that the security deal seals Gulf support for a final nuclear accord with Iran ahead of those talks’ June 30 deadline.
“The gathering is an opportunity to discuss ways to enhance their partnership and deepen security cooperation,” the White House said in statement on Twitter, after announcing the summit dates.
US and Gulf officials are hoping that the meetings at the White House on May 13 and at Camp David the next day will be an important public show of unity, but that the content of the enhanced security relationship will be finalised before the GCC leaders arrive in Washington.
“From the Gulf perspective, having something the GCC can sign with the US that has some specific elements will be helpful with optics and the message it sends to Iran” and cement Washington’s “moral commitment” to its allies, said a source familiar with the discussions. “Everyone wants as clear and strong a statement” made as possible.
Arab Gulf countries have cautiously voiced support for the framework deal the US detailed last month, but their primary worry is not the Iranian nuclear threat or even conventional military action against them. Rather, it is Iran being freed to pursue what they see as a policy of regional destabilisation through local proxy forces if economic sanctions are lifted.
Arab officials worry that the US administration has no strategy in place for countering Iran’s regional moves after the Revolutionary Guards’ war chest is replenished.
There are ongoing discussions about what form the upgraded US-GCC security relationship will take.
Some have pushed for a Nato-style mutual defence treaty. But Gulf officials doubt the possibility of such an agreement being passed by congress especially given that the US has no similar treaty with Israel.
Diverging threat perceptions, particularly over domestic opposition most notably in Bahrain, would also make it less likely for the White House to be willing to sign a mutual defence pact.
Other options include a US nuclear security umbrella, a non-binding security declaration and an agreement on enhanced tactical cooperation in areas such as missile defence and cyber security.
Mr Obama has taken a number of steps recently to reassure his traditional Arab allies, in particular Saudi Arabia, by backing its intervention in Yemen, re-establishing the military aid relationship with Egypt and showing serious concern about the role of Iran-backed militias in the fight against ISIL in Iraq.
But people familiar with the discussions say so far the US has not put forward possible new arrangements that, from the Gulf perspective, sufficiently address their concerns about Iran’s proxy warfare strategy. The White House wants the summit to be attended by GCC heads of state, but Saudi officials are waiting to see what will be decided upon before committing to send King Salman.
“My feeling is that the administration is not ready for this historic opportunity to put the US-Gulf partnership back on track — I really hope am wrong,” said Bilal Saab, a Gulf security expert at the Atlantic Council think tank who has met with both sides during the discussions.
“This will end in failure if [president] Obama offers increased tactical security cooperation at a time when the Gulf leaders are looking for much stronger US security commitments.”
Part of the problem is that there still appears to be a fundamental difference in the perceptions of the US and the GCC countries about how significant a regional threat Iran poses and how best to stabilise the region.
For the US, the immediate security concern in the region is ISIL and Al Qaeda’s Yemen branch, not Iran or the groups it supports in places like Syria or Yemen. Some in the administration also believe that a nuclear deal will push Iran to moderate its policies and will help stabilise the region beyond just ending the prospects of a nuclear arms race.
Mr Obama and his top Middle East advisers also continue to emphasise democratic political reform in the Gulf as the key to stability. In the current context of a region slipping into chaos, and their countries being the only bastions of stability, Arab officials were shocked at Mr Obama's recent remarks in an interview with the New York Times.
In a recent meeting with Gulf diplomats, a senior White House official underlined the need for political reform, and that the US will not take sides in what it sees as purely sectarian fights or against domestic opposition movements. But it will assist its Gulf allies in defending against external threats, as it is doing in Yemen.
US support in Yemen is intended to reassure the GCC that Washington will act to support them when it sees Iran pose a threat to a Gulf countries’ territorial integrity. But US officials also hope their role will help bring about a political endgame in Yemen.
There is growing concern that the Saudi strategy of weakening the Houthis through air strikes and pushing them to negotiate is not working.
Mr Obama spoke to Saudi King Salman last week to discuss the “next steps in the effort to resume the political transition in Yemen, including talks facilitated by the United Nations”, according to the White House.
On Saturday, Mr Carter spoke to Saudi defence minister, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is leading the war efforts.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
