Why Jihad Azour could become Lebanon's next president

The IMF regional director is backed by key Christian parties and independent MPs

Jihad Azour, pictured in 2018 in Dubai. AFP

Lebanon's opposition camp has been infused with renewed optimism as Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and regional director at the International Monetary Fund, emerged as the favoured contender for the country's vacant presidency after months of political turmoil.

Backed by key Christian parties and a coalition of independent MPs, Mr Azour's nomination strategically aims to thwart the Hezbollah-backed candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, who lacks widespread support within Lebanon's Christian community.

The presidency, in Lebanon's complex sectarian power-sharing regime, is traditionally reserved for a Maronite Christian.

Renowned for his financial expertise, the technocrat's nomination comes as Lebanon has been negotiating with the IMF to secure a $3 billion bailout package meant to alleviate a severe economic crisis created by decades of corruption in the financial sector.

The IMF on Thursday announced that Mr Azour was to take a leave of absence “to avoid any perception of conflict of interest”.

Despite repeated pleas from the IMF, Lebanon still lacks crucial capital control legislation, remains mired in an unresolved banking crisis, and suffers from unharmonised exchange rates for the Lebanese pound, which has collapsed in value.

The failure to address these pressing concerns not only casts uncertainty over the nation's economic stability but also hampers efforts to restore a semblance of order to the financial landscape.

Washington has made it clear to Lebanese authorities that the Levantine country has “no alternative” but to secure a deal with the IMF.

“The IMF package is a lifeline. There’s just no other way out,” Barbara Leaf, US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, said in March.

Jihad Azour is taking a leave of absence from the IMF. Reuters

For a financially distressed nation looking to negotiate an IMF package, “there really aren’t better scenarios than electing the point person on the Middle East at the IMF as its president”, Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told The National.

Washington has shown a lack of interest in Lebanon's political crisis. David Schenker, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, said it is worried about “the so-called kiss of death”.

“If the United States backs a candidate, then it would make it more difficult for that particular candidate to cross the threshold” of votes required, Mr Schenker told The National.

Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East North Africa Centre at the United States Institute of Peace, said Lebanon needs a steady hand at the helm.

“You need honestly a competent technocrat, in my view, to address these many challenges, and one who's well-versed in engaging with the international community and someone that doesn't bring the baggage of Lebanon's entrenched, corrupt political clans,” Ms Yacoubian told The National.

The Lebanese pound has lost about 98 per cent of its value since an economic meltdown began in 2019. AP

In Washington, Mr Azour, 57, has earned a sterling reputation, according to sources.

A senior professional based in New York who previously worked with Mr Azour praised him as an “internationally connected person with strong integrity and a knack for handling complex issues”.

“We seem to be going through very important regional shifts … towards reconciliation, towards compromise, towards economics … triggered by the Saudi-Iranian detente or agreement … at this point he is the right person at the right time,” said his former colleague, who asked to remain anonymous.

Moreover, Mr Azour's wife, Rola Rizk Azour, also an economist, is expected to play a substantial role beyond ceremonial duties, according to a mutual friend of the couple.

Recognising the need for social change, which has been overshadowed by Lebanon's prolonged political and economic challenges, Ms Azour ”knows the mechanics between decision making and implementation."

Mr Azour, whose uncle Jean Obeid was foreign minister of Lebanon from 2003 to 2004, acted as a senior adviser to prime minister Fuad Siniora from 2000 to 2004, and subsequently assumed the position of minister of finance in 2005.

“There are some critics who have raised questions about his tenure in the finance ministry … I think it would be unrealistic to expect to find a candidate with really broad, consensus-backed support but he certainly has a shot,” said Mr Schenker.

Nabih Berri, speaker of Parliament and leader of the Shiite Amal Movement, called for a June 14 presidential election session in parliament, a day after the opposition officially endorsed Mr Azour as its presidential candidate.

It will be the 12th time that the Lebanese parliament will try to elect a new president. Mr Azour would need to garner 65 votes in a secret ballot by MPs in the 128-member parliament to proceed to the second round.

Mr Azour has still not declared his own candidacy but the fact that his nomination has proceeded this far, noted Mr Maksad, “one would have to assume that there's a nod of approval from Jihad otherwise all these political parties would not have spent time and effort and political capital to put him forward and back him”.

Mr Azour declined to comment for this story.