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A deal for Poland to supply its fleet of 28 Mig-29 fighter jets to Ukraine through a US air force base in Europe is on hold after the US said the deal was “not tenable.”
The question on many people's lips – will 28 additional Mig-29s make a difference to Ukraine's beleaguered air force?
Even before considering the dynamics of the air war, the deal is fraught with complexity. Russia says that any countries attempting to send fighter jets into the Ukraine war would be considered hostile and, potentially, subject to attack.
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A Ukrainian serviceman walks past the vertical tail fin of a Russian Su-34 bomber lying in a damaged building in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo -
An apartment building damaged after shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo -
A woman puts her head in her hands as she sits on a cot in a shelter, set up for displaced persons fleeing Ukraine, inside a school gymnasium in Przemysl, Poland. AP Photo -
Belarussian and suspected Russian helicopters on the flight line at Machulishchy Air Base outside Minsk, Belarus. AP Photo -
Children look on as people fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine shelter in a school, in Drohobych, Ukraine. Reuters -
Families eat in the shelter. Reuters -
A woman looks out from a building damaged by Russian shelling in Mykolaiv, 100 kilometres away from Odesa, western Ukraine. AFP -
A wounded Ukrainian man waits in the corridor of the central hospital of Mykolaiv. AFP -
An elderly woman is carried in a shopping cart after being rescued from Irpin, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A woman reacts as a train carrying children from Kyiv's Central Children's Hospital leaves the Ukrainian capital on its way to Lviv. Reuters -
A girl sits in an improvised bomb shelter in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP -
An elderly woman is coated in snow as she sits in a wheelchair after being rescued from Irpin. AP -
Belarusian volunteers take part in military exercises at the Belarusian Company base in Kyiv. AP -
Lessa, left, director of a nursery school turned into a refugee shelter, cries as she hugs Olega, who arrived from Kyiv with her baby, near Lviv. EPA -
Ukrainians pass a damaged bridge as they flee from Irpin. AP -
A man carries an elderly woman as people continue to leave Irpin. AP -
A soldier stands on a barricade made of sandbags in central Odesa, Ukraine. Reuters -
A charred Russian tank and captured tanks in the Sumy region. Reuters -
People rest at a temporary shelter for Ukrainian refugees in Przemysl, Poland. AFP -
Ukraine's ambassador to the Netherlands, Maksym Kononenko, third right, and his wife Tetiana Doroshenko, fourth left, attend a meeting of members of the Ukrainian community with Dutch King Willem-Alexander, third left, and Queen Maxima, second left, to discuss the situation in Ukraine, in The Hague. EPA -
A Ukrainian soldier looks at the destruction after shelling in Ukraine's second-largest city of Kharkiv. AFP -
A refugee holds her dog as they wait for trains to Poland in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A woman ties ribbons in Ukrainian national flag colours in a girl's hair as people wait at a refugee assistance centre in Prague, Czech Republic. EPA -
A Ukrainian soldier carries an elderly woman crossing the Irpin river on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP -
Lena, who had never left Ukraine before fleeing into Moldova, feeds Dasha, 3, soon after crossing the border. Erin Clare Brown for The National -
Refugees without immediate plans to move further inland can stay the night in tents set up on Moldova's side of the border. Erin Clare Brown for The National -
Tatiana and her son wait for a van that will carry them from the Moldovan border to Chisinau. Erin Clare Brown for The National -
Each night, the Palanca refugee camp in Moldova feeds up to 300 people who arrive with no onward plans. Erin Clare Brown for The National -
People pass a damaged bridge while fleeing the town of Irpin, close to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. AP -
A Ukrainian soldier stands guard next to a church in Irpin. EPA -
A firefighter holds the baby of a Ukrainian refugee at the border in Romania. AP -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks in Kyiv. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier at a checkpoint in Kyiv. AP -
Ukrainian activist Ihor Mazur, left, a veteran of the war in the country's east, looks at a night-vision device in Kyiv. AP -
Ambassadors attend a UN Security Council meeting on threats to international security after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in New York. Reuters -
Ukraine's UN ambassador Sergey Kyslytsya holds a paper with an image of Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as he addresses the Security Council in New York. Reuters -
A road sign put up in support of Mr Zelenskyy outside Russia's embassy in Washington. AFP -
Ukrainian refugees at the train station in Lviv, western Ukraine. EPA -
Lethal and non-lethal Ukrainian aid is loaded on to a plane bound for Poland by Canadian soldiers in Trenton, Ontario. Reuters -
Volunteers carry medical aid and necessities at a train station in Lviv. EPA -
Everton players wear T-shirts in support of Ukraine as they warm up for an English Premier League football match against Tottenham Hotspur. AP -
A residential building damaged by Russian shelling in Chernihiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A man walks past a checkpoint in heavy snow in Lviv. Getty -
A man fleeing fighting in Irpin waits to cross a river after Russian forces entered the city. Getty -
Soldiers assist Irpin residents underneath a damaged bridge as they flee. Getty -
Ukrainian civilians who volunteered to join the Territorial Defence Forces take part in a training exercise in Odesa after Russia's invasion. Reuters -
Men carry a body to a lorry as people flee from the frontline town of Irpin. EPA -
A Ukrainian police officer runs with a child as the sound of shelling echoes nearby in Irpin. AP -
Parents and children struggle to board a train in Lviv. AP
Poland made the offer on Tuesday, suggesting that the jets could be sent through Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany. Poland had wanted the US to send F-16 fighter jets to replace the Migs, which the US would then send to Ukraine.
The US F-16s, even used, would be better than Poland's Migs. They are also used by US allies, including Taiwan and Iraq.
"The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the president and the government, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their Mig-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the government of the United States of America,” a Polish Foreign Ministry statement said.
Ukraine had about 125 combat aircraft at the start of the conflict, but many are nearing obsolescence – its Mig-29s are 30 years old, for example.
There are questions about Poland's fleet of Mig-29s as it fleet was briefly grounded after a series of accidents.
But as the mainstay of Ukraine's Air Force, any replacement Migs could in theory be operational quickly, because the aircraft are familiar to ground crews and pilots.
The deal "raises serious concerns for the entire Nato alliance", said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
He questioned the rationale for the deal, which critics said was logistically challenging, aside from the risk of starting a Russia-Nato conflict.
"We do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one,” he said, before conceding that the US could revisit a revised deal at a later date.
Ukraine's Mig-29s
Many analysts said that because Ukraine’s air force is heavily outnumbered, even an additional 28 Migs would have a tough job surviving the fight.
Russia is thought to have about 300 modern fighter and multi-role aircraft that can reach Ukraine’s airspace, such as the SU-35, which entered service in 2014.
By comparison, the Mig-29 entered service in 1982. Most Russian Mig-29s have been retired and those still in service are used in a defensive role.
The successful delivery of Polish Mig-29s is also in doubt as Russia sends more cruise missiles and Iskander short-range ballistic missiles to the battle zone.
Those have been used to deadly effect against airfields – “stand-off” weapons that can be used and which reduce the need for Russian air attacks.
In addition to taking some losses in the air, Ukraine’s runways were bombed by Russia, putting bases out of action.
Despite the odds, Ukraine’s air force has surprised observers by staying operational 13 days into the invasion, when most analysts thought it would quickly be finished off by overwhelming force.
As long as that remains the case, calls for countries to send replacement jets are likely to continue. More likely, continued supplies of surface-to-air missiles, such as the Stinger, will continue in an ongoing effort to protect ground forces from air attack that is logistically more feasible.
