Modi faces tough challenge winning rural support after Indian farmers' protests

State elections in Punjab could be a barometer for Mr Modi's fortunes

Congress party election vehicles line a street in Amritsar, in Indian state of Punjab. Photo: AP

More than 21 million voters will cast their ballots in India's Punjab state on Sunday in polls that are regarded as a barometer of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party's popularity before general elections in 2024.

Pitched against Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the incumbent Congress Party and the regional Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is seeking to consolidate its political dominance through the election.

The AAP was formed in 2013 to eliminate corruption and has ruled the capital territory of Delhi for two consecutive terms.

On a recent afternoon, Harbhajan Singh, one of the party's candidates from the Jandiala constituency, sat on top of a car during door-to-door campaigning.

A band of young men followed him on motorbikes waving flags brandishing the party symbol – a broom to sweep out corruption.

Mr Singh stopped near a public park and talked to his supporters about chipping away at the entrenched political system.

The BJP implemented controversial farm laws in September 2020 using its executive powers and without any consultation in Parliament. The legislation was met with some of the fiercest protests in India in recent years.

Security personnel clash with demonstrators during a rally in support of Indian farmers. The farmers are protesting at various locations at the capital, New Delhi. EPA

A protester is surrounded by security personnel at a demonstration in support of farmers, in New Delhi, India. Reuters

A demonstrator is held back behind a police shield at a rally in support of Indian farmers in New Delhi, India. Farmers are protesting against new farming laws. Reuters

Security personnel and protesters clash at a demonstration in solidarity with Indian farmers in New Delhi, India. Farmers say new laws leave them at the mercy of corporations. EPA

Security personnel, some carrying 'lathi' sticks for crowd control, block a road in New Delhi, India, during a protest in support of farmers. EPA

Indian National Congress leader Rahul Gandhi arrives at press conference in New Delhi, India. Congress has called for the new farming laws to be repealed. EPA

Rakesh Tikait, a leader of Bharatiya Kisan Union farmers' group, is helped onstage at a Maha Panchayat village council meeting, in Kandela village, Jind district, Haryana state, India. Reuters

Rakesh Tikait, a leader of Bharatiya Kisan Union farmers' organisation at a grand village council meeting in Kandela village, Jind district, in Haryana state, India. Reuters

Rakesh Tikait, a leader of Bharatiya Kisan Union farmers' group, turns from the crowd at a grand village council meeting at Kandela village, Jind district, in Haryana state, India. Reuters

Farmers and supporters attend a grand village council meeting at Kandela village, Jind district, in Haryana state, India. Reuters

Protesting farmers encounter barbed wire and barricades placed by security personnel at the Delhi Ghazipur Border, near New Delhi, India. EPA

Indian lawyers from Punjab state attend a protest by farmers at the Delhi Ghazipur Border, near New Delhi, India. EPA

Villagers leave after a grand village council meeting as part of farmers' protests against farming laws, at Kandela, Jind district, in Haryana state, India. Reuters

Indian farmers with tractors and trailers protesting at the Delhi Ghazipur Border near New Delhi, India. EPA

Protesting Indian farmers rest in a trailer at the Delhi Ghazipur Border near New Delhi, India. EPA

Indian National Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addresses a press conference in New Delhi, India. Congress has backed the protesting farmers. EPA

Mr Modi's administration billed them as necessary reforms, but farmers feared the laws signalled the government was moving away from a system in which they sold their harvest only in government-sanctioned marketplaces.

They worried this would leave them poorer and at the mercy of private corporations.

The laws triggered a year of protests as angry farmers – most of them Sikhs from Punjab state – camped on the outskirts of New Delhi through a harsh winter and coronavirus pandemic.

In a major reversal, Mr Modi withdrew the laws a year later, three months before the crucial polls in Punjab and four other states.

BJP has a small presence in Punjab but hopes to form a government there with a regional ally and strengthen its voter base among farmers, one of the largest blocs in India.

Punjab, where people are deeply proud of their state's cultural and religious tapestry, also represents a test for Mr Modi's party's Hindu nationalist reach, which has flourished in most of northern India since 2014.

The BJP is running its campaign by trying to portray the Congress government as corrupt.

It is also making grand promises to create more jobs, provide farm subsidies and free electricity for farmers, and eradicate the drug problem that has afflicted the state for years.

Analysts said the moves are intended to placate the farmers, and that the elections were a major reason behind Mr Modi's sudden decision to withdraw the laws.

Bitterness after protest crackdown

That anger, however, runs deep.

More than 700 farmers died during the protests as they weathered harsh cold, record rainfall and sweltering heat, according to Samyukt Kisan Morcha, or the United Farmers Front, the umbrella group of farm unions that organised the agitation. Dozens also died by suicide.

But in December last year, Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar told Parliament that his government had no record of the farmers' deaths.

This caused widespread anger among the families of the deceased, many of whom are small or landless farmers who constitute the lowest rung of India's farming community.

"Where did those 700 to 750 people go then? The Modi government is responsible for that," said Amarjeet Singh, choking back tears in his family home in Kaler Ghuman village, about 40 kilometres from Amritsar, the state's capital.

Mr Singh's father, Sudagar Singh, died on a hot September afternoon from a sudden heart attack, according to his death certificate.

At the time of his death, he was accompanied by his friend Charan Singh, the village head, who said the 72-year-old collapsed while returning home after spending weeks at the protests.

Scarred by the death, Sudagar Singh's younger brother fell into depression, the family said. He stopped eating and working on his farm. Three months later, he died.

Another farmer, Kulwant Singh, died in an accident during the farmers' protest.

"I could never imagine this," said Balwinder Kaur, Kulwant Singh's wife.

In some cases, the Punjab government has announced jobs and funds for the families of the deceased, but farmers said the elections are an opportunity to turn their anger into meaningful change.

At its peak, the protest drew support from Punjab's rural and urban populations.

Now, those protests find very little resonance among city voters who say the farmers' issues should take a back seat since the laws have been withdrawn.

The election results will be announced on March 10.