While the opening day of the Munich Security Conference was dominated by discussions on the possible ramifications of war in Ukraine, day two will not be much different.
The developments over the past 24 hours, with both US President Joe Biden’s statements that his Russian counterpart is intent on invading Ukraine and news of military escalation picking up pace there, were top of mind of diplomats and officials gathered in Germany.
Biden has reason to believe Russia will attack Kiev
On Friday, German diplomacy was on the stage as Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock gave a keynote speech and stressed that dialogue was the preferred route with Russia but that “solidarity” with Ukraine was unwavering. And while US officials are quite combative in their tone on Russia, German diplomats are eager to work towards a de-escalation. In meetings with diplomats and military personnel on the sidelines of the conference, the German line was firm on Ukraine but even firmer on the need to avoid war in Europe. However, considerations about energy sources, including Nordstream 2, are also top of mind for the Germans. As for the Americans, Vice President Kamala Harris is due to speak in Munich and re-assert her country’s commitment to European security.
Despite the overwhelming focus on Ukraine, whose president is due to travel to Munich but may cancel due to fears of an invasion, there are a host of other discussions and meetings. A number of panels are intended to stimulate debate on key issues including climate action, security in the Sahel and how to overcome the Covid-19 pandemic. The second day of the conference got under way with a host of closed-door meetings tackling challenges to the current international order, particularly issues of impunity and challenges to democratic systems of government.
The Middle East is represented in force with a number of ministers but less so in terms of major significance, with Ukraine being the central geopolitical issue of concern.
From the Arab world, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, in addition to Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Al Safadi, Egypt’s Sameh Shoukry and Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. For the UAE, climate diplomacy is in the lead with the Emirates' Climate Envoy and Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Dr Sultan Al Jaber and Minister of Climate Change and Environment Mariam Al Mheiri participating.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdoluhain is due to speak and he comes to Munich buoyed with news of a possible nuclear deal. The US appears even more compelled to announce a "diplomatic win" at a time when its diplomacy is particularly challenged.
