Limiting global temperature rises to even 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would be “catastrophic” for coral reefs, scientists say.
Countries have agreed to curb global warming to 2°C, and try to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more extreme floods, storms, heatwaves and damage to crops.
But scientists led by the University of Leeds warn that the climate risk is even worse for coral reefs than set out in a UN assessment in 2018, which warned that 70 to 90 per cent would be lost at 1.5°C of warming.
That assessment, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, also found almost all corals would vanish at 2°C of warming.
The new research has found that more than 90 per cent of tropical coral reefs would suffer frequent “intolerable” heat stress as a result of ocean warming even under the tougher 1.5°C limit.
Places that can maintain suitable temperatures for corals to survive, while the ocean temperatures in surrounding areas rise, are known as “refugia”, and were identified by the researchers as areas projected to suffer severe heat stress less than once in 10 years.
This is about the time it takes for reefs to grow back and be fully functioning.
In recent decades, 84 per cent of tropical reefs have had enough time between heatwaves that cause coral death or bleaching to recover and re-establish, with these refugia found in all 12 coral reef regions across the world.
But at 1.5°C of warming, that will fall to just 0.2 per cent of coral areas, in Polynesia and the “coral triangle” in the western Pacific Ocean, where lower rates of warming and colder water reduce the frequency of ocean heatwaves.
No “refugia” areas will exist with 2°C of warming, the study based on historical data and climate models shows.
“We confirm that warming of 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels will be catastrophic for coral reefs,” they wrote in a paper published in the journal PLoS Climate.
Identifying and protecting refugia and reducing other stresses such as fishing and pollution has been a popular recommendation for managing reefs, the researchers said, but might only be a short-term solution.
Alongside creating protected areas, action to help reefs adapt to higher temperatures and help migration of species might be needed to secure coral reef survival.
“Our finding reinforces the stark reality that there is no safe limit of global warming for coral reefs,” said lead author Adele Dixon, a PhD researcher in the University of Leeds’ School of Biology.
Ms Dixon said that after the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow where countries made some progress towards keeping temperatures to the 1.5°C limit, “our finding shows that 1.5°C is still a substantial amount of warming for the ecosystems on the frontline of climate change”.
“Our work shows that corals worldwide are even more at risk from climate change than we thought at the time of the IPCC special report on 1.5°C," said Piers Foster, professor of climate physics at the university.
“This reinforces the stark reality that there is no safe limit of global warming, and we need to act urgently to save what we can.”
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
RIDE%20ON
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SPECS
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BRAZIL SQUAD
Alisson (Liverpool), Daniel Fuzato (Roma), Ederson (Man City); Alex Sandro (Juventus), Danilo (Juventus), Eder Militao (Real Madrid), Emerson (Real Betis), Felipe (Atletico Madrid), Marquinhos (PSG), Renan Lodi (Atletico Madrid), Thiago Silva (PSG); Arthur (Barcelona), Casemiro (Real Madrid), Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa), Fabinho (Liverpool), Lucas Paqueta (AC Milan), Philippe Coutinho (Bayern Munich); David Neres (Ajax), Gabriel Jesus (Man City), Richarlison (Everton), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool), Rodrygo (Real Madrid), Willian (Chelsea).
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Gully Boy
Director: Zoya Akhtar
Producer: Excel Entertainment & Tiger Baby
Cast: Ranveer Singh, Alia Bhatt, Kalki Koechlin, Siddhant Chaturvedi
Rating: 4/5 stars
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T10 Cricket League
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6pm, Opening ceremony, followed by:
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