Africa became the region hardest hit by terrorism in the first half of 2021 as ISIS and Al Qaeda-linked extremist groups and their affiliates spread their influence, boasting gains in supporters and territory, and inflicting the greatest casualties, according to UN experts.
A report to the UN Security Council circulated on Friday said this is “especially true” in parts of west and east Africa where affiliates of both groups can also boast growing capabilities in fundraising and weapons, including the use of drones.
Several of the most successful affiliates of ISIS are in its central and west Africa province, and several of Al Qaeda's are in Somalia and the Sahel region, it said.
The experts said it’s “concerning” that these terrorist affiliates are spreading their influence and activities, including across borders from Mali into Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Niger and Senegal, as well as incursions from Nigeria into Cameroon, Chad and Niger in West Africa. In the east, the affiliates’ activities have spread from Somalia into Kenya and from Mozambique into Tanzania.
One of “the most troubling events” of early 2021 was the local ISIS affiliate’s storming and brief holding of Mozambique’s strategic port of Mocimboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado province near the border with Tanzania “before withdrawing with spoils, positioning it for future raids in the area”.
Overall, the experts said Covid-19 continued to affect terrorist activity and both ISIS and Al Qaeda “continued to gloat over the harm done by the coronavirus disease pandemic to their enemies, but were unable to develop a more persuasive narrative”.
“While ISIL contemplated weaponising the virus, member states detected no concrete plans to implement the idea,” the report said.
In Europe and other non-conflict zones, lockdowns and border closures brought on by Covid-19 slowed the movement and gathering of people “while increasing the risk of online radicalisation”.
The experts said attacks “may have been planned in various locations” during the pandemic “that will be executed when restrictions ease”.
In Iraq and Syria, “the core conflict zone for ISIL”, the extremist group’s activities have evolved into “an entrenched insurgency, exploiting weaknesses in local security to find safe havens, and targeting forces engaged in counter-ISIL operations.”
Despite heavy counter-terrorism pressures from Iraqi forces, the experts said ISIS attacks in Baghdad in January and April “underscored the group’s resilience”.
In Syria’s rebel-held northwest Idlib province, the report said groups aligned with Al Qaeda continue to dominate the area, with “terrorist fighters” numbering more than 10,000.
“Although there has been only limited relocation of foreign fighters from the region to other conflict zones, member states are concerned about the possibility of such movement, in particular to Afghanistan, should the environment there become more hospitable to ISIL or groups aligned with Al Qaeda.”
In central, south and southeast Asia, the experts said Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates continue to operate “notwithstanding key leadership losses in some cases and sustained pressure from security forces.”
The status of Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri “is unknown,” and if he is alive several unnamed member states “assess that he is ailing, leading to an acute leadership challenge for Al Qaeda,” the report said.
