US voters in UAE despair over Biden performance and tip Trump to win election

US residents of the UAE who support Joe Biden for president say they expect Donald Trump to win Tuesday’s election.

The National canvassed a group of American voters in the UAE on their views in August and again this week.

Most were Biden supporters who expressed optimism three months ago, even as the coronavirus pandemic swept the US.

Now each said they expected Mr Trump to triumph over the Democratic challenger as they reflected on a poor campaign and feared for an uncertain future.

They gave their verdict in a snap social media poll for The National found respondents tipped Mr Trump to have another four years in the Oval Office.

I am mentally preparing myself for four more years of Trump

In a single-question poll of 2,750 readers in the UAE and abroad, 53 per cent wanted Mr Trump to win and 47 per cent wanted a Biden administration.

“I am mentally preparing myself for four more years of Trump,” said Cary Smith, an English teacher from Denver, Colorado, who works in Dubai.

“It feels like I am watching democracy die.”

Fears of a possible US lockdown under a new government, Mr Biden’s perceived weak performance on the campaign trail and the appointment of ardent conservative Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court were factors behind the belief that Trump’s re-election was likely.

Ms Barrett’s appointment on the eve of the election meant the nation’s highest court has six conservative-leaning judges and three with liberal voting histories.

“Amy Coney Barrett being selected so soon to an election shows the Republicans are more interested in winning than playing fair,” said Ms Smith, 43.

“The election could be decided by the Supreme Court if a clear winner isn’t declared. There was a precedent set for this to happen in 2000.”

That year, the Supreme Court declared the election in favour of George W Bush over Al Gore after a recount dispute in the state of Florida.

Ms Smith was also critical of Mr Trump’s administration politicising the pandemic.

“In the US now if you wear a mask you are seen as a liberal,” she said.

“But if you don’t wear a mask you’re seen to be sticking up for your individual rights.

“People in the US who are protesting against having to wear a mask to protect themselves must look like idiots to the rest of the world.”

Christine Lippincott voted for Biden but believes Trump is likely to win. Christine Lippincott

Ebraheem Al Samadi, an Arab-American businessman based in Dubai, said it was time for a change in the White House but he did not think it would happen.

“I watched the debates to see how strong Biden was,” said Mr Al Samadi, 32, who runs a retail group. "Even though I am not a Trump fan, I felt he was much more stronger than Biden.

“He looked much more confident, which is what people look for in a president. I believe deep down Trump will win. You just feel it.

“Biden looked tired and like he had given up.”

He was critical of the way Mr Trump’s administration had handled the Covid-19 pandemic, which has resulted in more than 236,000 deaths in the US.

“It’s been a catastrophe. Trump didn’t even wear a mask to the debates, which shows he’s not taken it seriously,” Mr Al Samadi said.

“He has shown he is more driven by money than the safety of citizens.

“That said, he came across as strong and outspoken, which people will respond to even if they don’t believe what he’s saying.”

He said uncertainty of what measures a new government would introduce could result in many voters sticking with the devil they knew.

“People don’t want the trial-and-error of a new president trying to adapt,” Mr Al Samadi said.

“I’ve spoken to friends and family in the US who all agree it’s better to stick with Trump rather than vote for the uncertainty of a new regime.

“I think if there wasn’t a pandemic then Biden would surely win.”

Fears over lockdown

Christine Lippincott said there was a worry among voters that Mr Biden would implement tougher action to handle the pandemic, which could lead to a lockdown.

“Covid-19 is an issue that many people are still focused on,” said the catering trainer, 34, who has lived in the UAE for 10 years.

"I have been speaking to a lot of people back home and they believe Biden is going to be stricter with restrictions.

“We just saw England go into lockdown again. People are wondering what will happen under Biden and what it will do to the economy.”

While Mr Trump continued to trail Mr Biden in the polls, Ms Lippincott said his victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 meant nothing could be taken for granted.

“The polls are not something you can bank on,” she said.

Ebraheem Al Samadi believes Mr Biden was lacklustre in debates and on the campaign trail. Ebraheem Al Samadi

“Everybody was saying the same in 2016: that Trump was going to lose.”

She also said the US was so divided that it could take some time for a clear winner from Tuesday’s election to emerge.

“There are so many key swing states that it’s likely to be an election week rather than election night,” Ms Lippincott said.

“If Biden doesn’t win by at least nine or 10 points there will be a lot of shouting from Trump and on the other side there will be a lot of complaining about rights being suppressed if the opposite happens.

“I am just ready for it to be over, to be honest.”

RESULT

Bayern Munich 3 Chelsea 2
Bayern: Rafinha (6'), Muller (12', 27')
Chelsea: Alonso (45' 3), Batshuayi (85')

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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