UAE

Nigerian elections marred by violence

It is not only Nigerians themselves, however, who are keen to see this month's elections go smoothly. European, North American and other African capitals are also looking on intently

Maggie Fick

April 12, 2011

JOS, NIGERIA // Violence marred the weekend start of elections Nigeria, stoking fears that Africa's most populous nation will fail to hold its first credible and peaceful elections since military rule ended in 1999.

The bombing on Friday of a election office in the state of Niger killed eight people and wounded more than two dozen others. In Saturday's voting for the country's National Assembly - the first of three rounds that will also elect a president and state governors - there also were several reports of ballot-box stealing and violence. Still, the polls appeared to have taken place smoothly after being delayed twice in the last week.

It is not only Nigerians themselves, however, who are keen to see this month's elections go smoothly. Despite the ongoing crises in Libya and the Ivory Coast, European, North American and other African capitals are also looking on intently, for the stakes are high.

The balloting could mark a turning point in the Nigerian leadership's halfhearted embrace of democracy to date. Or, they could send the strategic nation, which produces more gas and oil that any other nation on the continent, in the opposite direction, casting a shadow over democratization efforts across Africa, where 17 more elections are set to take place this year.

The European Union, the Commonwealth and the the African Union, have deployed observers throughout most of the country to monitor the vote, though some of the monitors are avoiding areas where violence is most likely.

The US president, Barack Obama, dispatched his assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Johnnie Carson, to Nigeria on Friday to underscore Washington's call for credible elections.

"Nigeria has an historic opportunity to allow the Nigerian people to elect their local, state and national representatives in a climate free of violence and intimidation," the State Department spokesman said on Friday.

Nigeria's elections are also taking place against the backdrop of upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, said Chris Fomunyoh of the the US-government funded National Democratic Institute.

"People are paying attention to these elections in spite or because of the new wave of transitions spreading [across the Arab world]," said Mr Fomunyoh, who has observed all three Nigerian elections since the end of military rule 12 years ago.

"Lots of Africans are wondering, 'What does this mean for the rest of Africa?,' for other regimes in power in Africa who lack legitimacy," he added.

In Nigeria's volatile Middle Belt region, where Human Rights Watch estimates nearly 4,000 people have been killed in brutal violence that has frequently taken on religious and ethnic dimensions, Hadjiya Khadija Gambo Hawaya, has been watching the revolutions of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and other Arab states with keen interest.

"It's a great mistake to believe, to assume, that this could not happen in Nigeria," MS? CORRECT~ Hawaya said, citing the discontent of many of Nigeria's 150 million citizens. While their leaders amass vast personal wealth from the country's enormous oil revenues, the majority of Nigerians live on less than two dollars per day.

Civil-society activist Oladayo Olaide, who leads the Open Society Institute's work in Nigeria, said that although the Obama adminstration may wish to ignore the results of the elections if they are badly flawed as past polls have been.

Mr Olaide stressed "if Nigeria gets it wrong, there's a good chance the other [elections] on the continent will also go badly," pointing to the looming polls in Liberia, where the US has invested heavily since the end of the civil war.

During the past decade plus of democratic rule, Nigeria has strived to assert itself as a diplomatic leader in African problems, sending its troops to join peacekeeping missions in troubled corners of the continent and taking a stand in crises including the escalating conflict in the Ivory Coast.

But if Nigerian leaders fail to prove to the rest of the continent and the rest of the international community that it can embrace good governance at home, it will struggle to play the peacemaker and diplomatic powerhouse abroad.

"As Nigeria seeks to expand its international influence, we hope that Nigerians will continue to strengthen their democratic institutions and practices," said the US ambassador to Abuja, Terrence McCulley.

"A firm democratic foundation will provide the platform for Nigeria to exercise leadership in the sub-region, on the continent, and globally," Mr McCulley said.

Whether the country's ruling People's Democratic Party, loyal to President Goodluck Jonathan will make room for opposition views and voices in the new government remains to be seen.

The party first has to clear the hurdle of re-election, as many Nigerians dissatisfiied with their current leaders are pinning their hopes on popular opposition candidate General Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler of Nigeria in the mid-1980s who is supported by most northern voters.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”