Expo historian predicted Dubai would win

Urso Chappell, an American, says a combination of intuition, studying traffic on his Expo websites and weighing factors such as regional alliances and government backing have helped him choose a winner in this and earlier expos.

PARIS // An Expo historian called the World Expo 2020 in Dubai’s favour before the first vote was cast.

Urso Chappell, an American, said a combination of intuition, studying traffic on his Expo websites and weighing factors such as regional alliances and government backing helped him choose a winner in this and earlier Expos.

The planning behind the Dubai Expo 2020 bid made a difference, he said.

“I was fortunate to see at first hand how specific plans were made,” Mr Chappell said.

“Those plans, particularly the visuals, make it easy for delegates to see that the project was feasible. I was particularly impressed by the site visuals. One could almost be forgiven if they thought the Expo was just about to open given the quality of the visuals.”

The grassroots-level approach with public support for the event was also key to the UAE’s success, he said.

His sites ExpoMuseum.com and ExpoBids.com, that provide information about past expos and future bids, have received heavy traffic from the UAE.

Speaking about the tide of support for Dubai’s Expo 2020 bid, he said: “A city needs to have a certain appetite to think beyond the past and current realities, and see a vision for what it would like to be in the future. Expos are ways for a city, region, or nation to experiment with its own identity and way of living.

“It is a laboratory that not only leaves a physical legacy but a legacy in the minds and attitudes of its young people. A city, as a whole, has to be willing to take on that task.”

Earlier Expo results he has predicted include Yeosu, South Korea last year; Shanghai, China winning Expo 2010 and Zaragoza, Spain in 2008.

Born in St Louis, Missouri, the site of a 1904 US world fair, he grew up hearing stories about Expos and witnessed the lasting imprint the fairs left on people.

“It really helped give St Louis an identity, and is still a major part of St Louis history,” he said.

My great-grandmother attended and stories had come down through the family.”

Since visiting the 1982 world fair in Knoxville, Tennessee, he began studying the event’s history and has since attended nine Expos.

Mr Chappell’s blog features on the BIE’s (Bureau International des Expositions) website. The BIE oversees, regulates and selects the host for an Expo and is headquartered in Paris.