ISTANBUL // With a war between its neighbour Georgia and Russia on hold, Turkey has proposed the formation of a "Caucasus Alliance" to bring peace to the region, but Ankara's options to end the conflict are limited, observers say. "Turkey cannot do anything on its own," said Can Fuat Gurlesel, head of the Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank in Istanbul. As a member of Nato and a partner of Georgia, Turkey is not in a position to play the role of an "honest broker" along the lines Ankara has been following in the Middle East lately, Mr Gurlesel said.
"Turkey can try to ease things between the two fronts, but generally, this is between Russia and the United States," Mr Gurlesel said in reference to Washington's solid support for Tbilisi and Russia's unwillingness to see Georgia join Nato. After Georgian forces tried to retake the separatist region of South Ossetia with an attack that started on Aug 7 and Russia responded by sending troops into the region, Moscow criticised Washington for supporting the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, while the US accused Russia of invading Georgia.
Turkey, which shares a 300km border with Georgia, is keen to maintain good relations with both Tbilisi and Moscow. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, said a Caucasus Alliance should be created with the help of the United Nations to strengthen political and economic ties between all the countries in the region, which would also include Armenia and Azerbaijan, which remain at loggerheads over disputed territory.
"We, as Turkey, can play a role here," Mr Erdogan told reporters. He said he would raise the subject with Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, and stressed his proposal was not directed against Russia. "Of course, the Russian Federation must have a place in the Caucasus Alliance," Mr Erdogan said. For Turkey, the conflict raises difficult questions. "In principle, Turkey is on Georgia's side, but it cannot afford to be against Russia," Taraf, a newspaper, commented.
Together with Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia are partners in a strategically important pipeline project that brings oil from the Caspian Sea to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean coast. The three countries have also agreed to expand their railway networks. Turkey also has given military aid to Tbilisi. Turkish companies have modernised two Georgian military bases, Mr Gurlesel said. But on the other side of the equation, Russia is an important trading partner and energy supplier for Turkey. According to newspaper reports, Turkish-Russian trade is expected to reach US$40 billion (Dh148bn) this year. Turkey also welcomes more than two million Russian holiday-makers every year, an important source of revenue for Ankara. Most importantly, Russia supplies about 60 per cent of Turkey's natural gas imports.
Diplomatic implications of the conflict in South Ossetia add to Turkey's troubles. Turkey may be forced to decide between the West and Russia, Sanli Bahadir Koc, of the Centre for Eurasian Strategic Studies, a think tank in Ankara, wrote in an analysis of the conflict. The war in Georgia could also trigger renewed fighting between Turkey's ally, Azerbaijan, and Armenia over the disputed Karabakh region, Mr Koc wrote.
"Turkey is in an interesting position," Mr Gurlesel said. If Ankara stresses the need to keep Georgia's territorial integrity intact, Russia may well raise the question of self-determination in respect to the Turkish part of the divided island of Cyprus, he said. Even if the fighting in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a second separatist region within Georgia, ends in the coming days, the conflict heralds new problems for the region, observers said. Mr Gurlesel said Russia is likely to increase its pressure on Georgia and Ukraine because Moscow wanted to slow down their march towards Nato and other western institutions. "It was a demonstration of power by Russia," Mr Gurlesel said about Moscow's military action.
The doyen of foreign policy commentators in Turkey, Sami Kohen, writing in yesterday's Milliye, also predicted more trouble for the region. "The situation in the region and international relations will enter a very different - and dangerous - period," Mr Kohen wrote. A high-ranking Russian diplomat in Ankara suggested that the removal of Mr Saakashvili from power was a precondition to end the conflict.
"The Georgian leadership has to be punished," Radikal quoted Andrey Burayov, the Russian embassy's counsellor in Ankara, as saying. "It is impossible to do business with the Saakashvili leadership in the future." @Email:tseibert@thenational.ae