A fine balance in the battle for a stable Somalia



American presence on the ground in Somalia is not a new phenomenon. From the UN-backed Operation Restore Hope during the 1990s to more recent efforts aimed at eliminating al Qa'eda's presence in the country, the US has maintained a pervasive, if spotty, presence in the fractured African state. Efforts to root out terrorism have at times clashed with desires to see governance restored; a drone strike aimed at killing al Qa'eda commanders last year further inflamed the militancy of Islamist groups on the ground, complicating efforts to defeat al Shabaab, the Islamist militia that controls southern Somalia and part of Mogadishu.

But since last year, the US has also realised that political engagement, rather than direct military intervention, is necessary if it wants to see Somalia restored as a functioning state. And despite taking almost 20 years since the infamous Blackhawk Down incident, the US seems to be understanding that deploying troops on foreign soil not only risks its own interests, but discredits its allies as well.

The current offensive to retake Mogadishu is spearheaded by the Somalian army, with support being offered by the US in the form of air strikes and special operations forces - the extent that this can be achieved with further alienating Somalis will be crucial. If successful, the army would break al Shabaab's stranglehold on the capital and restore the transitional federal government, a United Nations and US-backed entity, as the de facto government.

For the US, the intervention is seen as a necessary component to a counterterrorism strategy that wants to break the links between al Qa'eda in Yemen and Somalia. With a mere 160 kilometres separating the two countries at the Horn of Africa, the group has profited through an exchange of personnel and arms for the better part of a decade. As The National reported last month, the link is so strong that Yemen closed its waterways to prevent al Shabaab from landing on its coast after the group pledged to help al Qa'eda overthrow the government in Sana'a - one bridge-building venture the United States would not like to advance as part of its Middle East policy.

But while a US-backed offensive may be necessary to establish security and gain traction in war-torn Mogadishu, the only permanent solution is a political one. And, as the US has learnt again and again, excessive interference can do more harm than good. The creation of the transitional government has been the 14th attempt by negotiators to create a government since 1991. If it is to last, competing factions in Ethiopia, Somaliland and Puntland will ultimately have to be brought into the fold. And while the US may offer support, it is the Somalis, and whatever government they can forge, who must ultimately stabilise the country.

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2 Abraham Kiptum (KEN) 2:04:16
3 Dejene Debela Gonfra (ETH) 2:07:06
4 Thomas Rono (KEN) 2:07:12
5 Stanley Biwott (KEN) 2:09:18

Women
1 Ababel Yeshaneh (ETH) 2:20:16
2 Eunice Chumba (BRN) 2:20:54
3 Gelete Burka (ETH) 2:24:07
4 Chaltu Tafa (ETH) 2:25:09
5 Caroline Kilel (KEN) 2:29:14

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE SPECS

Jaguar F-Pace SVR

Engine: 5-litre supercharged V8​​​​​​​

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Power: 542bhp​​​​​​​

Torque: 680Nm​​​​​​​

Price: Dh465,071

MATCH INFO

Manchester City 3
Danilo (16'), Bernardo Silva (34'), Fernandinho (72')

Brighton & Hove Albion 1
Ulloa (20')

Which honey takes your fancy?

Al Ghaf Honey

The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year

Sidr Honey

The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest

Samar Honey

The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5