Danny Graham has joined Hull City on a season-long loan from Sunderland. Richard Heathcote / Getty Images
Danny Graham has joined Hull City on a season-long loan from Sunderland. Richard Heathcote / Getty Images
Danny Graham has joined Hull City on a season-long loan from Sunderland. Richard Heathcote / Getty Images
Danny Graham has joined Hull City on a season-long loan from Sunderland. Richard Heathcote / Getty Images

What goes up usually comes back down in the Premier League


Richard Jolly
  • English
  • Arabic

By Ian Holloway's standards, it was a forgettable utterance. The usually quotable Crystal Palace manager has acquired a cult following because of his colourful phrases, taste for the absurd and sense of humour.

In comparison, branding the English Premier League "the toughest division in the world" was rather mundane. This was conventional wisdom from an unorthodox manager, a familiar statement that the top flight provides an intimidating environment for arrivals from the Championship.

The gulf between the divisions – whether in terms of finances or football – is vast.

For some, it is unbridgeable.

And yet a study of recent history suggests there has never been a better time to be a promoted club. Not merely because participation in the Premier League is more lucrative than ever before, although clearly that helps, but because of their immediate predecessors.

Of the last six teams to go up, only one, Reading, came straight back down again. Three of them – Swansea City, Norwich City and West Ham United – have gone straight into mid-table and a fourth, Southampton, finished 14th last season.

Moreover, both Swansea and Norwich flew still higher in their second season.

So for Cardiff City, Hull City and Palace, the omens appear good. Except that, in time-honoured fashion, the newcomers to the division are immediately installed as the favourites for the drop. Some are tipping all three to make an immediate return to the Championship.

Yet there is a clear division between them. While Cardiff were the division's runaway winners, Hull and Palace finished only 25 and 18 points clear of the relegation zone respectively.

While the Welsh club rank among the Premier League's big spenders, the others have dealt at the lower end of the market.

When Cardiff saw Blackpool winger Thomas Ince reject an £8 million (Dh45.4m) move, they, too were frustrated. Instead, they responded by breaking their transfer record three times and strengthening the spine of the side with Denmark striker Andreas Cornelius, England defender Steven Caulker, and finally, Sevilla's Gary Medel, an £11m addition to the midfield.

Derby County right-back John Brayford is the only other addition, but the emphasis has been on quality, not quantity.

The harsh interpretation is that Hull have taken the opposite approach. Overspending during their last stay in the Premier League almost bankrupted the club and they are understandably adamant there will not be a repeat. Their major striking target, Burnley's Charlie Austin, failed a medical, and their two attacking additions are Danny Graham, who did not score a goal after his £5m move to Sunderland, and Yannick Sagbo, who only struck 25 times in three years for Evian Thonon in France.

Too many other additions lack real pedigree. On paper, it bodes badly, although at least, with eight players arriving, manager Steve Bruce has bolstered most sections of his squad.

Play-off winners Palace, in contrast, may be weaker than when they won at Wembley Stadium in May in the play-off final, simply because Wilfried Zaha, their outstanding player that day, is now at Manchester United. Holloway's recruits are a real mixed bag, from striker Kevin Phillips, 40, who scored the goal that sent them up, to record buy Dwight Gayle, who was playing non-league football 16 months ago.

Yet as Holloway accepted in typically entertaining fashion, they have been thwarted more often than not in their attempts to bring players in.

"Myself and the chairman are going to sit down and have a look at the targets we have shot at, and go from a scattergun approach to the rifle," he said.

That method brought him a Gunner – Marouane Chamakh, signed from Arsenal – but without seeming to give shape or focus to Palace's recruitment drive.

In any case, rather than shooting for the stars, reality dictates the target is 17th place. So it was for Holloway's Blackpool who, on a minuscule budget, almost stayed up in 2010/11. Hull's maiden season in the Premier League did culminate in unexpected survival in 2009 before demotion 12 months later.

For Cardiff, this is a first season in the top flight since 1962. With Swansea alongside them, the Premier League has never been more Welsh. And, in their bid to beat the drop, local rivals are role models.

Cardiff are the likeliest of the new arrivals to march – and finish – in mid-table. Palace and Hull are in greater danger of proving Holloway right.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Australia (15-1): Israel Folau; Dane Haylett-Petty, Reece Hodge, Kurtley Beale, Marika Koroibete; Bernard Foley, Will Genia; David Pocock, Michael Hooper (capt), Lukhan Tui; Adam Coleman, Izack Rodda; Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Tom Robertson.

Replacements: Tolu Latu, Allan Alaalatoa, Taniela Tupou, Rob Simmons, Pete Samu, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Jack Maddocks.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Five ways to get fit like Craig David (we tried for seven but ran out of time)

Start the week as you mean to go on. So get your training on strong on a Monday.

Train hard, but don’t take it all so seriously that it gets to the point where you’re not having fun and enjoying your friends and your family and going out for nice meals and doing that stuff.

Think about what you’re training or eating a certain way for — don’t, for example, get a six-pack to impress somebody else or lose weight to conform to society’s norms. It’s all nonsense.

Get your priorities right.

And last but not least, you should always, always chill on Sundays.

Red flags
  • Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
  • Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
  • Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
  • Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
  • Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.

Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching