There are reasons to be optimistic for Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks fans on Sunday morning.
After all, their teams are alive to see another week, which is no small feat.
However, there are even more reasons to not be overly optimistic. Wins are nice, but if you look ahead, neither team should feel as though this is the start of a Super Bowl run.
Take the Texans, who just beat an Oakland Raiders side 27-14 who were down to their third-string quarterback in the shape of rookie Connor Cook. He threw three interceptions having being forced into the unenviable position of starting his first ever NFL game, which just so happened to be on the road in the play-offs.
It was another lucky break for a team only in the play-offs for having the fortune of playing in — and winning — the anaemic AFC South.
Notably for Houston, starting quarterback Brock Osweiller was not awful. That is notable because the 2016 free-agent signee spent most of his first full year as a starter being patently awful, finishing with the NFL’s second-worst QB rating (72.2, only ahead of Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick among qualified players).
Osweiller was benched late in the year for Tom Savage, who only gave the job back to Osweiller for this game after suffering a concussion in a Week 17 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
But the Texans now hit the road to face either the New England Patriots — who with a third-string quarterback beat Houston 27-0 in Week 3 — or the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Texans simply lack the talent to hang with either of the AFC’s top two teams.
The win over Oakland probably saved head coach Bill O’Brien his job, and maybe even bought Osweiller more time to prove his worth. But that is about it.
For the Seahawks, next on tap is a trip to Atlanta to face one of the hottest teams in the league, the Falcons.
Seattle beat Atlanta in Week 5, but that game ended in controversy when Julio Jones appeared to be interfered with on a vital play late in the game by Richard Sherman.
No interference was called, though, and the Seahawks escaped with the win. Atlanta, Jones and likely MVP Matt Ryan will be seeking revenge.
Winning in the NFL play-offs is nothing to sneeze at, but fans of each of this year’s first two winners would be wise to keep expectations in check.
More luck for Houston
The biggest city in Texas is going to host the Super Bowl this year, but most Houston fans are probably smart enough to know their hometown team will not be there to play in their own stadium.
The Texans had one of the luckiest paths to the post-season in recent memory.
Eight of their nine wins this year came against Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, two over the Indianapolis Colts and two over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Their one impressive win — in hindsight — was way back in Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs, who they could potentially face next week if the Miami Dolphins upset the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
The Texans sacked Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith four times in that 19-12 victory, but Osweiller was awful in that game, throwing two picks and posting a 68.8 QB rating.
It was the first of seven games in which Osweiler posted a rating under 70 this season.
The Chiefs are a much different, better team since that Week 2 showing in Houston. Any further advancing by Houston would be truly shocking.
Seattle runs amok
One definite bright spot for the Seahawks in their 26-6 beat-down of Detroit was the showing by running back Thomas Rawls, who ran for 161 yards and a touchdown.
It was the first 100-yard performance by a Seattle player since Rawls ran for 106 in Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers.
The Seahawks’ backfield has been a revolving door this year as they have struggled to find a suitable replacement for the retired Marshawn Lynch. They finished with 99.4 yards rushing per game, 25th out of 32 teams.
Running the ball has been a foundation of the Seattle offence’s success in recent years, and without a strong attack this year the unit has struggled to only 22.1 points a game (tied for 18th).
Atlanta’s defence is nothing special, and the interior of their defensive line might be the weakest spot.
If Rawls and the Seahawks can carry over their rushing success against the Lions to Atlanta next week, it will help keep the Falcons’ blistering offence off the field and give them a better shot to advance to the NFC title game.
What is next for Oakland and Detroit?
You have to feel bad for the Raiders. Their season was one of the best stories of the year, winning 12 games and advancing to their first post-season since 2003.
But all hope for a Super Bowl run dissipated when Derek Carr — having an MVP-level third season — went down in Week 16.
Back-up Matt McGloin joined him in a Week 17 loss to Denver Broncos, leaving the team down to the overmatched Cook. Even a date with paltry Houston could not stave off the inevitable.
All of this came in a season filled with news that Oakland could lose the franchise to Las Vegas or Los Angeles.
Say the Raiders are still in Oakland next season, they should have plenty of reason to stick around the upper tier of the AFC.
Carr will be back. Defensive monster Kahlil Mack will be back. Head coach Jack del Rio and general manager Reggie McKenzie have built a lot of hope for a bright future for a long-dormant franchise, an especially notable feat in the face of such future uncertainty.
For Detroit, head coach Jim Caldwell does not inspire a lot of confidence, but his job is secure with two post-season berths in three years.
But the loss to the Seahawks was an NFL record ninth post-season exit without a win in a row. It has been 25 years since the Lions have won in the post-season.
Matthew Stafford had his best season ever, a sign of upwards trajectory for an offence that had to deal with the unexpected retirement of Calvin Johnson.
But reinforcements are needed, especially at running back and on defence.
Most of Detroit’s wins came against weaker competition, so while a play-off trip was nice, there is still a long way to go until this team is a legitimate title contender.
kjeffers@thenational.ae
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