As the World Series moves to Game 3 in New York, there is one thing we should have learnt to expect by now: the unexpected.
Few things are as they seem. Each game turns on something new and unusual. The World Series is a great place to throw advanced metrics, those statistical probabilities, out the window.
When Kansas City pitcher Johnny Cueto subdued the New York Mets on two hits in Game 2, it was the first complete game by an American Leaguer in the Series since 1991.
Cueto had a total of two complete games in 32 starts this year – one for Cincinnati, one for the Royals. As a team, Kansas City registered two complete games the entire season.
Meanwhile, according to Fox Network statisticians, Mets strikeout artist Jacob deGrom threw 24 two-strike pitches to the Royals and never got them to swing and miss once.
The Mets’ only two hits were produced by slugging first baseman Lucas Duda, a dead pull hitter who led the team with 27 home runs and crushed more extra base hits than singles during the regular season.
His two hits were a bloop single and an infield grounder, both to the left side.
The World Series, where truisms come to die.
No sane person would have predicted that Mets closer Jeurys Familia would give up a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 1, mainly because he had not blown a save since July. He also had not given up a run in more than 10 innings this post-season.
Of course, no one would have thought that the Royals would make an error in the eighth inning of Game 1, especially not sure-handed first baseman Eric Hosmer, to put the Mets in position to win in the first place. Kansas City are baseball’s best defensive team.
Nor would anyone have predicted that the Game 1 pitching hero would be Chris Young, who was not even supposed to be a reliever because he was tabbed to start Game 4. But when the game turned into a rare World Series marathon, he pitched the 12th, 13th and 14th innings, allowed just one base runner and picked up the win.
What is in store for Game 3? Do not even try predicting.
It is just like the World Series to be a non-reflection of the regular season, or long-term trends of any kind. Each game is always a singular oddity of its own.
Last year, a starting pitcher who had already gone 16 innings in the Series, Madison Bumgarner of the victorious San Francisco Giants, threw the last five innings of Game 7, the longest official save in World Series history.
The year before, the St Louis Cardinals won Game 3 when a third baseman was called for obstructing a runner, the first walk-off “obstruction” in Series history.
The next day, the Boston Red Sox won when a pinch-runner was picked off first base with the tying run at the plate, the first game-ending pickoff in Series history.
World Series games are neither predictable, nor repeatable.
When Alex Gordon hit the home run off Familia to tie Game 1 and put it in extra innings, Mets manager Terry Collins said of his nearly automatic closer: “He doesn’t give up home runs, so we were all shocked by it.”
If history tells us anything, they all should get ready for more.
Different schools of thought, same sport
While two teams are still playing in the World Series, the other 28 are already at work trying to figure out how to get there next year.
Five of them already determined that the journey begins with new managers. Generally, the hires will fall into “new school” and “old school”, reflections of each team’s commitment to using advanced metrics to build rosters and line-ups, as well as shaping in-game strategies. Oddly, baseball is also trending away from “minority school” managers. Fredi Gonzalez of the Atlanta Braves is the only Latino or African-American currently employed as a manager. As recently as 2009, there were 10 minority managers.
The Seattle Mariners have already found their man, former catcher Scott Servais from the Los Angeles Angels scouting department, with no previous managing experience. Call that a “new school” hire.
The Washington Nationals are allegedly settled on former San Diego Padres manager Bud Black. That’s old school.
The other three are still looking. The Florida Marlins and Padres are leaning old school, with former LA Dodgers coach Don Mattingly and minor league manager Phil Nevin getting favourable looks by those teams, respectively.
The Dodgers supposedly like metrics man and former scout Gabe Kapler, definitely from the new school camp.
Minorities? Reportedly the Padres also are talking to Alex Cora. The Dodgers are supposedly interested in Dave Martinez, who is currently on the Chicago Cubs staff. The Nationals have interviewed Dusty Baker.
Old school or new school may be the new debate, but it should not take baseball back to an old problem.
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