For a tournament that kicked off with a stunning victory for Palestine over the Philippines, and includes the first quarter-final appearances for India since 2003 and Japan since 2007, there’s every chance the 2015 Fiba Asia Championships are still in store for more surprise.
The quarter-finals will take place across Thursday in Changsha, Hunan Province, China, with Japan and Qatar’s match at the least guaranteeing there will be one semi-finalist there for the first time in a decade. Qatar haven’t reached the stage since 2005, when they won bronze, and Japan last reached the last four in 1997, when they won silver in Saudi Arabia.
Iran, winners of three of the last four tournaments, meanwhile are paired with 2013 bronze medallists South Korea, a stiff challenge for this stage. India have a mighty task in front of them in hosts China, and Lebanon will try to be the second West Asian team this tournament to put a shock into the Filipinos.
Iran v South Korea
The Iranians, who feature former NBA centre Hamed Haddadi, as well as seasoned professionals like Mehdi Kamrani and Samad Nikkhah Bahrami – catalysts on the 2014 Asian Games silver medal-winning team – present the most interesting case for an upset. They’ve so far commandingly dismissed all comers with little trouble – that is, except the underized but skilled Filipinos, who delivered them a 14-point loss. South Korea have lost twice, but only by a combined nine points.
The South Korean captain, Yang Dong-geun, has been in fine form, scoring 15.2 points per game while leading the tournament in three-point shooting (59.1 per cent on 22 attempts). Korea’s effectiveness from long-range – they also lead the tournament as a squad, shooting 40.7 per cent from deep – might allow them to counter the size of the Iranians.
Iran lead the tournament with 50.5 rebounds per game, while South Korea are last at 34.8. The Koreans top out at 6ft 9in (2.06m) between ostensible centres Kim Jong-kyu and Lee Jong-hyun. In practice, only Kim does much rebounding (4.8 per game) and Yang, a 5ft 11in (1.80m) guard leads the team with 5.0 rebounds per contest.
Iran will plan on the size of 7ft 2in (2.18m) Haddadi and 6ft 11in (2.11m) Ashgar Kardoust tipping the scales in their favour, along with 24-year-old 6ft 9in forward Mohammad Hassanzadeh, their leading scorer at 12.8 points per game. Iran didn’t have Kardoust against the Philippines, but the South Koreans will try to emulate the style that kept them in the game against similarly-sized China, a 76-73 loss in the first round of group play. Yang scored 24 points in that game and orchestrated an offence that got to the free-throw line, where they’re the best team in the tournament (75.6 per cent), and hit enough threes to nearly pull off the upset. They’ll need veteran guard Cho Sung-min, leading the team in three-point attempts at 6.8 per game but hitting on just 32.4 per cent of them, to be more effective for the scheme to work.
Japan v Qatar
This contest, featuring Fiba’s 47th and 48th ranked teams, is probably the most too-close-to-call of the quarter-final stage. Japan might have the more-balanced team, but Qatar have the most dangerous weapon in naturalised American-born guard Trey Johnson, who had a brief stint in his career in the NBA. Johnson is the third-leading scorer in the tournament, scoring 20.6 points per game as the central focus of the Qatari offence.
He’s been streaky, though, failing to hit from distance (21.1 per cent) and bringing his overall field goal percentage to a more pedestrian 42.4. He has been able to mostly attack the basket when he pleases, exploding past overmatched defenders for easy points right at the hoop. Japan point guard Makoto Hiejima, at 6ft 3in (1.91m) has the size to try and contain him, and played a part in keeping talented Philippines players Jayson Castro, Gabe Norwood and Terrence Romeo in check in a narrow first-round loss. Norwood, 6ft 5in like Johnson, in particular was barely visible with three points on 1-of-4 shooting in 30 minutes.
Qatar’s second-leading scorer, Saad Ali, is also a guard, 6ft 4in, scoring 11 points per game.
Both teams top out in size at 6ft 9ins, but Japanese power forward Joji Takeuchi is their leading scorer, at 15.8 points per game, while Qatar’s Mohd Mohamed is only scoring 7.8 points per contest. If the Japanese can keep up with Qatar’s backcourt, they might have a clear path to victory.
India v China
India have had some inspiring moments in this tournament, their back-to-back wins over Palestine and Hong Kong when their backs were against the wall the reason for them even being at this stage, but it’s nearly impossible to envision a way for them past China.
Amjyot Singh, playing a kind of hybrid stretch-four for India, has been the revelation of the tournament, leading the field in scoring at 23 points per game with a decent inside-out game. The 23-year-old 6ft 8in forward has also pulled down 9.5 rebounds per game and dished three assists, figuring as a kind of do-it-all force for the Indian team.
But unless he can single-handedly dominate China, he doesn’t figure to have enough with him to pull off the miracle upset. Point guard Vishesh Bhriguvanshi has been a solid playmaker, with 4.8 assists per game, and is scoring over 15 points per contest thanks to his habit to let it fly from deep, where he’s shooting 36.4 per cent from three on over seven attempts per game. Centre Amritpal Singh is chipping in 12.3 points and over nine rebounds a game, as well.
But with the latter lies the problem. Amritpal has long arms and he can jump a little, but at 6ft 9in he’s just not going to be able to do much inside against 7ft 0in (2.13m) Yi Jianlian, 7ft 0in Wang Zhelin, 7ft 1in (2.16m) 19-year-old Zhou Qi, or 7ft 2in (2.18m) Li Muhao.
Yes, China are big.
The Chinese almost slipped against South Korea, but India simply aren’t as dangerous from three (34.3 per cent) and are much less effective at the free-throw line (65.2 per cent). With effective supporting players to their giant centres like guard Guo Ailun (9.8 points per game, 60.0 per cent shooting) and forward Li Gen (8.3 points per game, 57.1 per cent three-point shooting), China are simply too multi-dimensional and have too much depth for India to have much hope.
Philippines v Lebanon
It’s been a tournament with one weird high (a sterling 14-point win over Iran) and one weird low (the opening loss to Palestine) for the “Gilas Pilipinas”, who are seeking their first Asian title since 1985. They were finalists in 2013, and the desire for gold could only be matched in this fielding by the proud hosts China.
They’ve brought a veteran team to this tournament, and some of their most reliable talents have stayed home with injury, but they’re still dangerous when their guards are firing.
Naturalised American centre, the former NBA veteran Andray Blatche, at 6ft 11in (2.11m) answers their normal size problems, but the Philippines are truly at their best in this tournament when 5ft 10in (1.78m) dynamo point guard Jayson Castro has been at the top of his game.
Castro lives for barrelling his small frame into the lane for lay-ups, almost kind of like a smaller Eric Bledsoe, and his 16.2 points per game are even with Blatche for tops on the team. He’s shooting 60 per cent, so it’s working most of the time, but when he backed off against Palestine – in a muted 3-for-8, 10-point effort – the Filipinos lost a bit of their edge. Terrence Romeo, a 23-year-old 6ft 0in (1.83m) guard who is probably the closest thing to a Filipino Stephen Curry, with his animated ballhandling and freewheeling three-point shooting (43.6 per cent on 6.5 atempts per game) will also be key. Romeo’s arcing, slow-motion rainbow of a three has been one of their most effective weapons, and he should be encouraged to let it loose against the Lebanese.
Lebanon will try to counter with their own naturalised American, Jasmon Youngblood, their leading scorer at 19 points per game.
The shooting guard, at 6ft 4in (1.93m) has the size to attack the smaller Filipino backcourt at will, and will probably cause them fits at times. He’s a confident ballhandler and physical. Power forward Mohamad Haidar is Lebanon’se second-leading scorer (14.3 points per game) and leading rebounder (6.7 per contest) – as well as their tallest player, at just 6ft 8in (2.03m). That will likely, ironically against the Philippines, prove a heavy handicap to try and overcome opposite Blatche.
Guard Amir Saoud (48.1 per cent) has a clean stroke from three, and he’ll need to let it fly. Ahmad Ibrahim, scoring 12 points per game and shooting 37.5 per cent from three, will also need to produce his best. The Lebanese, at 39.3 per cent as a team, are the second-best from three in this tournament.
Ultimately, though, this may rest on whether Blatche can at all be contained – against China, Lebanon couldn’t find an answer for size in an 18-point loss. But Blatche slowed – in the loss to Palestine and the surprisingly tight match with Japan – when he was just 7-of-18 (38.9 per cent) shooting.
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