As 2015 loomed into view, the prognosis for Crystal Palace was grim. Mired in the relegation zone just three points off the bottom of the Premier League, the second half of the year looked destined to be spent in the Championship.
Yet that was as low as it got for Palace. By January 17, Alan Pardew, appointed at the start of the month, had overseen consecutive Premier League victories and the club were looking comfortable in 13th place – four points clear of the drop zone.
That impressive start has snowballed into an incredible three months, with eight league wins from 12 matches putting them so far clear of relegation that Palace are actually closer to qualification for the Europa League than relegation to the Championship. Just what has Pardew done to turn the club around so completely?
It is up front where the new manager has had the greatest impact, with the team scoring goals at almost twice the rate they were in the 20 Premier League matches prior to his arrival this season. Crystal Palace’s attack is scoring at a rate of 1.8 goals per game under Pardew, as opposed to a single goal before him.
Unsurprisingly, then, the number of shots taken per match has also gone up, from 10.6 to 12.9, while more importantly the number of shots needed to score has gone down. Under Pardew, Palace have scored once for every seven shots taken which, to put it into context, is better than Chelsea (7.5) and Arsenal (7.9) – the two most efficient attacks in the Premier League – have managed across the whole campaign.
The nature of their goal attempts is also impressive, as Pardew has clearly encouraged his team to carve out better chances. This is shown by the percentage of shots coming from outside the penalty area having dropped from 47 to 29 per cent, which again is better than any Premier League club has managed this season; Manchester City and West Ham United have led the way here with just 35 per cent of shots coming from outside the box. In addition, the percentage of Palace shots from inside the six-yard box has nearly doubled from eight to 14 per cent, exceeding the division high of 10 per cent sustained by West Ham this term.
This change in mentality that Pardew has brought in has come at a cost, albeit one that has been easily absorbed so far. Palace have faced one shot per per match more, on average, under Pardew and have not kept a clean sheet now in eight Premier League games. Their three matches in a row against top five sides – Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool – in May will provide a rigorous test of whether the South London club can compete at the top end of the table.
Nevertheless, ask the likes of Wilfried Zaha and Glenn Murray about the worth of Pardew’s attacking focus and the answer will be resounding. The former has seen his playing time more than double under Pardew from 36 to 75 minutes per match, and he has now scored three times in the last four matches, while the latter has returned from a loan spell at Reading to score six to become the club’s top Premier League scorer this season.
The former Newcastle United coach has won plenty of new friends in 2015 – cause perhaps for his previous employers to reflect on how willingly they parted ways with a man now surely a leading candidate for manager of the year.
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