We are well past the halfway stage of the revamped Uefa Champions League, in which 36 teams battle in a league phase, leaving some of the giants of European football wondering whether they will make it to the knockout rounds.
Three games remain in the league phase, with English side Liverpool in pole position with a perfect 15 points from their five matches so far.
The top eight automatically progress to the last 16 and, crucially, skip the two-legged knockout play-off round.
But, not everyone is enjoying the new format. English champions Manchester City find themselves in 17th place after five matches.
Real Madrid, the reigning kings of the continent, are in an even worse position. The 15-time winners languish in 24th place having picked up just six points.
That is one place and two points better off than French champions Paris Saint-Germain. The clubs 25th or lower are eliminated and do not gain entry into the Europa League.
Points target
As this is the first season under its new format, it's a little hard to predict just how many points would be needed, at this stage, to secure a top-eight finish and with it automatic qualification to the last 16.
Equally, it's just as futile trying to work out how many points would keep each team safe from elimination.
Before the start of this season's Champions League, Opta, a British sports analytics company, calculated each team's projected points tallies and likelihood of progression based on 50,000 simulations of the league phase.
They found that 16 points would give a team a 98 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, whereas 10 points would give each club a 99 per cent chance of securing a place in the top 24.
However, any team collecting fewer than nine points can expect their involvement in European competition this season to come to an end, according to its calculations.
Based on those calculations, leaders Liverpool would require one more point from their remaining three games – against Girona, Lille and PSV – to assure their place in the last 16.
As it stands, Arne Slot's side are assured of at least a play-off place, with Opta predicting before the tournament that 15 points would give any club a 73 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.
Italian champions Inter Milan are currently second, on 13 points, and, according to Opta, are predicted to finish their group assignments with a total of 18 points.
Like Inter, fellow Italian club Atalanta are also unbeaten and currently sit fifth on 11 points. Four points from their remaining fixtures – against Real Madrid, Sturm Graz and Barcelona – would give them 15 points and an 86 per cent chance of securing a place in the last 16, according to Opta.
Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal and Monaco are also currently in the top eight as things stand.
Who is in danger of missing out?
The likes of Bayern Munich (13th), AC Milan (15th) and Real Madrid (24th) – all multiple-time winners of the Champions League – as well as Manchester City (17th), have it all to do to stay in this year's tournament, or avoid elimination altogether.
According to Opta's pre-tournament simulations teams with eight points at this stage – currently City, PSV, Juve and Celtic – avoided elimination 16 per cent of the time.
With nine points they reached the next round 69 per cent of the time and with 10 points they advanced in 99 per cent of run throughs.
Remaining Champions League matches in the league phase
- Matchday 6: December 10/11, 2024
- Matchday 7: January 21/22, 2025
- Matchday 8: January 29, 2025
Champions League knockout stages
- Knockout round play-offs: February 11/12 and February 18/19, 2025
- Last 16: March 4/5 and March 11/12, 2025
- Quarter-finals: April 8/9 and April 15/16, 2025
- Semi-finals: April 29/30 and May 6/7, 2025
- Final: May 31, 2025
When and where is the Champions League final?
The 2024/25 final will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.
