A little over two years ago, just after his 18th birthday, Kimi Antonelli crashed at Monza in his first-ever Formula One practice session.
Today, he stands on the brink of the world championship and could become the sport’s youngest title winner in Austin, Texas, this weekend.
Five drivers can still beat him on paper, even if most of them are clinging to the faintest of hopes.
Six races remain, and all of them are traditional grand prix weekends as Singapore was the last Sprint weekend. Each GP win is worth 25 points, second place is 18, third is 15 and so on down to a single point for finishing 10th.
That leaves a maximum of 150 points on the table. If two drivers finish the season level on points, the title goes to the one with more race wins.
Teammate George Russell remains Antonelli’s closest challenger, while seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton, four-time champion Max Verstappen, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and defending champion Lando Norris are still technically in contention.
Here is what each of the six contenders needs to finish the season as world champion.
Kimi Antonelli
Where he stands: First on 340 points with eight GP wins.
What he needs: Antonelli can win the title in Austin this Sunday if he wins the race and Russell finishes ninth or lower, and Hamilton finishes fifth or lower.
Victory would take Antonelli to 365 points and nine GP wins this season. Even if Russell subsequently won all five remaining races to draw level on points, Antonelli would still prevail, as he has secured more race wins.
If the Italian finishes second or lower in Austin, his next opportunity comes a week later in Mexico City, on November 1.
George Russell
Where he stands: Second on 238 points, 102 points behind.
What he needs: Russell’s best-case scenario involves him winning all six remaining races, which would take him to 388 points. Even then, Antonelli would have to score 48 points or fewer across those six races, which is essentially finishing sixth every weekend.
Russell began the year as favourite, considering his experience and the brilliance of the car, and things started brightly for the Briton, who won the opening race in Australia. Since then, reliability issues and his own style of driving have seen him usurped by his younger, more daring teammate.
Lewis Hamilton
Where he stands: Third on 229 points, 111 behind Antonelli.
What he needs: If Hamilton wins all six remaining races, he will finish on 379 points. Antonelli would then have to score 38 points or fewer.
In Austin, Hamilton would be eliminated from title contention if Antonelli wins and the Brit finishes fifth or lower. He is also out if Antonelli outscores him by 14 points or more.
Hamilton’s second year at Ferrari has seen him be more competitive but he has still only won once this season. He would need six wins in a row and a total collapse from the young driver who replaced him at Mercedes for him to take the crown. Realistically, the chase for a record eighth title will have to wait another year.
Max Verstappen
Where he stands: Fourth on 221 points, 119 behind.
What he needs: If Verstappen wins all the remaining races, he will finish on 371 points. Antonelli would then have to score 30 points or fewer, which is worse than seventh place every weekend. If Antonelli scored exactly 31 points, they would tie on 371 points with eight wins each and second places would settle it.
In Austin, if Antonelli wins the race, Verstappen is eliminated from title contention wherever he finishes.
There may be little hope for Verstappen. He spent most of the year struggling to get the car to compete and did not win a grand prix until October, in Sepang. Red Bull’s progress over the last few weekends has been exceptional, and the burst of form has dragged him back into the title conversation. Antonelli has admitted it unsettles him. It is a warning for next season, but it has probably come too late for this year.
Charles Leclerc
Where he stands: Fifth, on 215 points, 125 behind.
What he needs: If Leclerc wins all six remaining races, he will finish on 365 points. Antonelli would then have to score 24 points or fewer, which is essentially finishing P8 in every remaining race.
Leclerc has virtually no hope of winning the championship and his teammate Hamilton has produced better performances this season. His early exit at Monza, Ferrari’s home race, perfectly demonstrated how the season has drifted away from him.
Lando Norris
Where he stands: Sixth on 201 points, 139 behind
What he needs: If Norris wins all six races, he finishes on 351 points. Antonelli would then have to score 10 points or fewer across six weekends. In Austin, Norris would need to outscore the Italian by at least 15 points just to remain in contention.
