Sitting in Jeddah this morning, preparing for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton have cause to suspect this may be a season like no other.
OK, we only have a sample of one, but the opening round of the new era in Bahrain last weekend was a tumultuous, roller-coaster of changing fortunes.
Today their concerns about the next round may be compounded by thoughts of taking to the ultra-fast Jeddah Corniche Circuit in ultra-fast cars with fundamental grip and grounding issues.
Of course, there’s no stopping their epic rivalry. Just a week ago the Dutchman was runaway title favourite. His Red Bull both reliable and fast in testing and practice.
One unexpected late-race retirement later and the sport’s feted new champion goes into Sunday’s second round hounded by the knowledge he is already battling the odds.
To put that into perspective, car problems caused him just one retirement in the entirety of 2021.
The Dutchman must view another 22-races splayed out across the globe, in a tightly contested championship, his margin of error already gone, with some alarm.
Hamilton has the opposite car issue – but equal alarm, I suspect.
His car is reliable but uncompetitive – well, uncompetitive in Mercedes terms (after a double Red Bull failure he still ended up on the podium in Bahrain).
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Ferrari's Bahrain Grand Prix winner Charles Leclerc celebrates after the opening race of the season. AFP -
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton greets Ferrari drivers Carlos Sainz of Spain, left, and race winner Charles Leclerc. AP -
Ferrari's Charles Leclerc celebrates on the podium after winning the race with second place Carlos Sainz and third place Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto. Reuters -
Ferrari's Charles Leclerc celebrates on the podium with the trophy. Reuters -
Race winner Charles Leclerc and second placed Carlos Sainz on the podium. Getty -
Ferrari's Charles Leclerc celebrates with his team after winning the Bahrain Grand Prix. Reuters -
Charles Leclerc in action during the Bahrain Grand Prix. AP -
Charles Leclerc leads the pack at the start of the Formula One Grand Prix of Bahrain. EPA -
Red Bull's Mexican driver Sergio Perez is assisted by mechanics during a pit stop. AFP -
Smoke billows from AlphaTauri's French driver Pierre Gasly's car after it caught fire. AFP
The general consensus is that the W13 has plenty of speed - if it can be unlocked.
But Hamilton’s celebrations are muted by the reality that the same layout in Jeddah that favours his Red Bull rival appears to doom his car to mediocrity.
Saudi Arabia’s track has more corners than any other in the championship and its snaking layout means a bigger danger factor than almost anywhere else.
So dangerous in fact that in the brief interval since last year’s race the barriers have had to be moved back in a couple of places to improve driver sight lines.
Going into a corner at 250kph is one thing. Doing it blind not knowing if a car is stalled the other side is asking for trouble.
Jeddah’s barriers left its mark on almost everyone at the front of the field last year and the jeopardy is greater now.
This time they are just one race into a new formula with heavier, wider cars, bigger tyres and a significant, unsolved, handling problem.
The ground effect system introduced to improve overtaking has triggered cars banging the track surface at speeds over 250kph in an oscillation known as porpoising.
Every team suffers but Mercedes more than most, admitting a solution may be a few races away.
Hence Hamilton’s delight at Red Bull’s Manama disasters. The racing gods have given Mercedes a surprise breather to address their issues.
On the bigger issue of whether the new rules are the solution to the historic lack of overtaking in F1 remains to be seen.
2021 Saudi Arabian GP - in pictures
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Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton celebrates winning the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, with second placed Red Bull's Max Verstappen in the background, on Sunday, December 5, 2021. AP -
Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton compete in the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix on Sunday, December 5. AFP -
Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton tussle for the lead. Getty -
Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton compete for the lead. AP -
Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton during the race. Getty -
Drivers take the start of the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit in Jeddah on December 5, 2021. AFP -
Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton leads at the start of the race. AFP -
Jets release smoke as they perform an air display over the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. AFP -
Jets release smoke as they perform an air display over the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. AFP -
A jets performs during an air display over the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. AFP -
Jets perform an air display over the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in Jeddah. AFP -
Jets perform an air display over the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in Jeddah. AFP -
Drivers and team members pay tribute to the late founder and former team principal of Williams Racing, Frank Williams who died a week before the race. AFP -
Lewis Hamilton looks at the trophy prior to the start of the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. AP -
Red Bull's Max Verstappen before the race. Reuters -
Ferrari's Carlos Sainz Jr before the race. Reuters -
Drivers stand and take a knee on the starting grid prior to the race. AFP -
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas and Red Bull's Max Verstappen. AFP -
Drivers race during the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche Street Circuit. AP -
Mechanics work on the car of McLaren driver Lando Norris in the pits. AFP -
Alpha Tauri driver Pierre Gasly during the race. AFP -
Mick Schumacher's Haas after crashing. Getty -
Haas driver Mick Schumacher after crashing. Getty -
Alpine driver Esteban Ocon competes in the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. AFP -
Race marshals remove the car of Williams driver George Russell after a crash. AFP -
A race marshal assists Haas driver Mick Schumacher after his crash. AFP -
Red Bull driver Max Verstappen speaks with team members during a second stop in the race. AFP -
Lewis Hamilton speaks with team members during a second stop in the race. AFP -
Red Bull driver Sergio Perez leaves his car after a collision. AFP -
Sergio Perez after crashing. AFP
In Bahrain cars were able to run closer but that didn’t appear to make overtaking any easier. Maybe Saudi Arabia will provide more evidence after the equivocal beginnings.
But the grid has been reshuffled. Ferrari are back to their winning ways and it can only be good for F1 to have its marquee name back in the spotlight.
Where Verstappen raced with his usual pugilistic intent in Bahrain, their lead driver Charles Leclerc out-thought and out-raced the world champion, retaking the lead three times.
But this year is ostensibly about restoring teams’ and fans’ faith in the tarnished reputation of F1’s governing body and restoring wider trust in the sport after the controversy of Abu Dhabi.
Its new president, Mohammed ben Sulayem, came into office promising a new era ruled by black-and-white laws rather than opinions and threatening consequences for those who transgressed.
The first to feel the Emirati's focus were Hamilton and Mercedes who broke obligations by missing the FIA’s Prizegiving Gala in protest at the handling of the Abu Dhabi race by the old order.
But over the Bahrain GP weekend the FIA slid out a statement saying Hamilton had agreed a €50,000 donation to fund a motor sporting career from among the disadvantaged. Ben Sulayem praised the offer while also reminding Hamilton of his duty of sportsmanship - unquestionably referring to the Gala.
How you regard that "fine" depends on your viewpoint, neat solution or fudged punishment?
The conclusion most people are likely to draw is that Hamilton paid an unofficial fine for failing to meet his contractual obligations.
But isn’t this exactly what F1 is trying to get away from? A new era where the rule of law applies rather than the rotten old habits of cosy compromises and easy solutions taken behind closed doors? Wasn’t that why Michael Masi lost his job?
