Even in a format as compressed as the World Cup group stage, one round of matches is too soon to make any definitive judgements.
North America can rightly feel proud of the performance their region has put forth thus far. Even with Honduras unsurprisingly looking overmatched against France, opening victories for Costa Rica, the United States and Mexico represent a good return on Concacaf's four World Cup places.
That perception could change, of course, as most of those sides still have their most difficult matches ahead of them. Costa Rica provided the tournament's first upset by beating fancied Uruguay 3-1, but now they take on European heavyweights Italy and England. Having dramatically dispatched bogey side Ghana 2-1, the US steps up in competition with matches against Portugal and Germany.
Mexico are well-place to make the last 16 after beating Cameroon 1-0 and holding hosts Brazil to a 0-0 draw. Honduras, meanwhile, have the chance to make amends for their display against France with more manageable fixtures against Ecuador and Switzerland.
However, there seems to be a persistent current of sentiment, particularly among European pundits, that Concacaf is over-represented by having three-and-a-half World Cup bids. The "correct" number of places for Concacaf and who should receive those bids instead varies, but the overall message is that other regions are more deserving of places at international football's biggest table.
These arguments tend to take one of two forms. There are qualitative arguments – for example, claims that the standard of football in Concacaf is of insufficient quality to merit that many bids – and quantitative arguments – that the performances of Concacaf teams at World Cups do not merit having as many as four places in the tournament.
Qualitative arguments are difficult to judge as definitions of quality can vary wildly from person to person. Are the likes of Ecuador or Bosnia-Herzegovina better than the United States or South Korea simply because they play in regions considered to be more difficult? How do pundits justify such an assertion?
Perhaps the only objective measure is performance in World Cups. One obvious metric, even allowing for the vagaries of the draw, is number of teams in the knockout rounds. Since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams in 1998, Concacaf has advanced six teams out of the group stage – Mexico four times, the United States twice – compared to four by both Asia (Japan twice, South Korea twice) and Africa (Ghana twice, Nigeria once and Senegal once). Africa has two quarter-finalists (Senegal and Ghana) compared to one each for Concacaf (United States) and Asia (South Korea), and South Korea hold pride of place outside of Europe and South America with their 2002 run to the semi-finals.
That does not quite provide the entire picture, though, as making it out of the group stage is a tall order. Consider that for all its success in the latter stages of the World Cup, European teams make the last 16 at a rate barely better than 60 per cent. Perhaps looking at average points per place – the return each region receives for its World Cup berths – can provide a more comprehensive look. Total up the number of points earned by each team from each region in each tournament from 1998 onwards and divide that by the number of World Cup berths. Bad draws will bite every now and then, but that should average out across several tournaments.
First, it is important to identify the outlier. Oceania has had two teams reach the World Cup in this time frame, Australia (four points, round of 16) in 2006 and New Zealand (three points) in 2010. The region is averaging 3.5 points per place during the last two World Cups. Does anyone want to argue Oceania deserves more places, especially with Australia now playing in Asia?
Here is the breakdown of each region’s points in each World Cup group stage (averages rounded to the nearest hundredth):
1998
Asia: Saudi Arabia 1 point, South Korea 1, Iran 3, Japan 0. Total points: 5. Points per place: 1.25.
Africa: Morocco 4, Cameroon 2, South Africa 2, Nigeria 6, Tunisia 1. Total: 15. PPP: 3.
Concacaf: Mexico 5, United States 0, Jamaica 3. Total: 8. PPP: 2.67.
South America: Brazil 6, Chile 3, Paraguay 5, Colombia 3, Argentina 9. Total: 26. PPP: 5.2.
Europe: Norway 5, Scotland 1, Austria 2, Italy 7, France 9, Denmark 4, Spain 4, Bulgaria 1, Netherlands 5, Belgium 3, Germany 7, Yugoslavia 7, Romania 7, England 6, Croatia 6. Total: 74. PPP: 4.93.
2002
Asia: China 0, South Korea 7, Saudi Arabia 0, Japan 7. Total: 14. PPP: 3.5.
Africa: Senegal 5, South Africa 4, Cameroon 4, Nigeria 1, Tunisia 1. Total: 15. PPP: 3.
Concacaf: Costa Rica 4, United States 4, Mexico 7. Total: 15. PPP: 5.
South America: Uruguay 2, Paraguay 4, Brazil 9, Argentina 4, Ecuador 3. Total: 22. PPP: 4.4.
Europe: Denmark 7, France 1, Spain 9, Slovenia 0, Turkey 4, Portugal 3, Poland 3, Germany 7, Ireland 5, Sweden 5, England 5, Italy 4, Croatia 3, Belgium 5, Russia 3. Total: 64. PPP: 4.27.
2006
Asia: Iran 1, Japan 1, South Korea 4, Saudi Arabia 1. Total: 7. PPP: 1.75.
Africa: Ivory Coast 3, Angola 2, Ghana 6, Togo 0, Tunisia 1. Total: 12. PPP: 2.4.
Concacaf: Costa Rica 0, Trinidad and Tobago 1, Mexico 4, United States 1. Total: 6. PPP: 1.5.
South America: Ecuador 6, Paraguay 3, Argentina 7, Brazil 9. Total: 25. PPP: 6.25.
Europe: Germany 9, Poland 3, England 7, Sweden 5, Netherlands 7, Serbia and Montenegro 0, Portugal 9, Italy 7, Czech Republic 3, Croatia 2, Switzerland 7, France 5, Spain 9, Ukraine 6. Total: 79. PPP: 5.64.
Oceania: Australia 4. Total: 4. PPP: 4.
2010
Asia: South Korea 4, Australia 4, Japan 6, North Korea 0. Total: 14. PPP: 3.5.
Africa: South Africa 4, Nigeria 1, Algeria 1, Ghana 4, Cameroon 0, Ivory Coast 4. Total: 14. PPP: 2.33.
Concacaf: Mexico 4, United States 5, Honduras 1. Total: 10. PPP: 3.33.
South America: Uruguay 7, Argentina 9, Paraguay 5, Brazil 7, Chile 6. Total: 34. PPP: 6.8.
Europe: France 1, Greece 3, England 5, Slovenia 4, Germany 6, Serbia 3, Netherlands 9, Denmark 3, Slovakia 4, Italy 2, Portugal 5, Spain 6, Switzerland 4. Total: 55. PPP: 4.23.
Oceania: New Zealand 3. Total: 3. PPP: 3.
Totals
Asia: 16 World Cup berths, 40 points. PPP: 2.5. Round of 16: 4. Quarter-finals: 1. Semi-finals: 1.
Africa: 21 berths, 56 points. PPP: 2.67. Round of 16: 4. Quarter-finals: 2.
Concacaf: 13 berths, 39 points. PPP: 3. Round of 16: 6. Quarter-finals: 1.
South America: 19 berths, 107 points. PPP: 5.63. Round of 16: 14. Quarter-finals: 9. Semi-finals: 3. Finals: 2. Champions: 1.
Europe: 57 berths, 272 points. PPP: 4.77. Round of 16: 35. Quarter-finals: 19. Semi-finals: 12. Finals: 6. Champions: 3.
Oceania: 2 berths, 7 points. PPP: 3.5. Round of 16: 1.
As the numbers suggest, Concacaf teams do more on average with their World Cup places than their counterparts in Asia or Africa. Does that mean Concacaf should upgraded to four full bids, as the region’s leadership has requested in the past? Not at all. Three-and-a-half places is just about right for a region with two established powers and two to three other sides who reliably make the last round of qualifying but whose World Cup fortunes vary from cycle to cycle. Until the rest of Asia catches up to Japan or the rest of Africa lives up to Ghana’s example, there is no performance-based evidence to suggest taking a World Cup place away from Concacaf is warranted.
Of course, performance may only be part of the equation. It is worth remembering that, for all that is stresses the need to keep politics and sport separate, Fifa remains a political animal. Anyone hoping for a radical redistribution of World Cup places would do well to remember these numbers – Africa has 56 Fifa member nations, Asia 47, Concacaf 41, Uefa 54, South America 10 and Oceania 11. Also bear in mind that countries often vote in blocs, so angering a small handful of Asian or African countries could have disastrous effects on certain people’s grand designs come election time.
Barring something drastic, such as a confederation splitting into smaller parts or ceasing to exist altogether, the most fans can expect from Fifa is tinkering around the edges with play-off places. Three guaranteed berths for Concacaf, four for Asia and five for Africa is just about right given the existing balance of power, and the playoff places likely will continue to shift between Concacaf, Asia, Oceania and South America.
Those who suggest Concacaf is over-represented at the World Cup are letting their bias or their ignorance get the better of them. Qualifying out of Concacaf is more difficult than many realise, and the teams who earn those World Cup bids do more on average with their places than those from other regions perceived to be at their level. If regions outside Europe and South America are to gain or lose places at the World Cup, let it be because of their performance on the pitch rather than lazy generalisations or political machinations.
pfreelend@thenational.ae
Follow us on Twitter at @SprtNationalUAE
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The chef's advice
Troy Payne, head chef at Abu Dhabi’s newest healthy eatery Sanderson’s in Al Seef Resort & Spa, says singles need to change their mindset about how they approach the supermarket.
“They feel like they can’t buy one cucumber,” he says. “But I can walk into a shop – I feed two people at home – and I’ll walk into a shop and I buy one cucumber, I’ll buy one onion.”
Mr Payne asks for the sticker to be placed directly on each item, rather than face the temptation of filling one of the two-kilogram capacity plastic bags on offer.
The chef also advises singletons not get too hung up on “organic”, particularly high-priced varieties that have been flown in from far-flung locales. Local produce is often grown sustainably, and far cheaper, he says.
Top 10 in the F1 drivers' standings
1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 202 points
2. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 188
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes-GP 169
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing 117
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 116
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 67
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 56
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 45
9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 35
10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 26
HUNGARIAN GRAND PRIX RESULT
1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 1:39:46.713
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 00:00.908
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes-GP 00:12.462
4. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 00:12.885
5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 00:13.276
6. Fernando Alonso, McLaren 01:11.223
7. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 1 lap
8. Sergio Perez, Force India 1 lap
9. Esteban Ocon, Force India 1 lap
10. Stoffel Vandoorne, McLaren 1 lap
11. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso 1 lap
12. Jolyon Palmer, Renault 1 lap
13. Kevin Magnussen, Haas 1 lap
14. Lance Stroll, Williams 1 lap
15. Pascal Wehrlein, Sauber 2 laps
16. Marcus Ericsson, Sauber 2 laps
17r. Nico Huelkenberg, Renault 3 laps
r. Paul Di Resta, Williams 10 laps
r. Romain Grosjean, Haas 50 laps
r. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing 70 laps
Company%C2%A0profile
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Company name: Farmin
Date started: March 2019
Founder: Dr Ali Al Hammadi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: AgriTech
Initial investment: None to date
Partners/Incubators: UAE Space Agency/Krypto Labs
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How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Sweet%20Tooth
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Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
