The UAE property market has been one of the strongest stories in the sector globally over the past few years, with record transactions, rising prices and huge numbers of international buyers.
What makes the Emirates unique is not just the growth but its ability to recover quickly from downturns, attract global capital and reinvent itself through policy and positioning.
But over the past few weeks, something unprecedented has happened. After the US-Israeli war on Iran started in late February, and Tehran's subsequent attacks on the UAE and other Gulf countries, transaction volumes fell by about 37 per cent year on year – and almost 50 per cent month on month in the first 12 days of March – according to Goldman Sachs.
Some sellers are already cutting prices by 10 to 15 per cent just to close deals, and ValuStrat reported a 5.9 per cent decline in Dubai property prices last month.
It is the first significant downturn in the UAE property market since its rise after the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and one that is geoeconomically motivated.
In this live-recorded episode of Business Extra, host Salim A Essaid is joined by five experts to help make sense of it all: Mario Volpi, senior vice president of investment advisory at Allegiance Real Estate; Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency in the Middle East at Savills; Matthew Green, lead researcher at CBRE Mena; Rakesh Mavath, founder and chief executive of Takeem; and Louis Harding, chief executive of betterhomes.
They discuss whether this is just a short-lived shock or the first real signs of a slowdown after several years of growth, what it means for people who have invested in the UAE property market, what could happen to rent prices as people seek more affordability, and whether distress sales are actually happening.
