Is Donald Trump a unique “anti-fragility” test for the United States? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the Lebanese-American former derivatives trader who shares an alma mater and a tendency to bombast and self-aggrandisation with Mr Trump, would probably say “yes”.
Mr Taleb’s book on “anti-fragile things that gain from disorder” argues that countries such as Lebanon, which have gone through war and confusion of every sort, develop immunity and “thrive and grow”under stress. This is quite different, he says, from simply being resilient, which is all about resisting shocks and remaining unchanged.
Anti-fragility is about becoming better because of the “continuous fear of chaos”.
In theory then, the US should benefit, in Mr Taleb’s words, from the “volatility, disorder and stressors” that are testing America’s values and sense of itself each time Mr Trump opens his mouth.
The most recent, of course, was his “exclude Muslims” comments after the California mass shooting. It is extraordinary and upsetting to see that the remarks appear to have done Mr Trump’s domestic popularity no harm. In fact, the new NBC-Wall Street Journal poll of Republican Party voters, published this week, found that he is yet again leading the field and is actually up four percentage points from late October.
Then there is the downright meanness and violence that routinely breaks out at Mr Trump’s magnificently well-attended rallies.
In Birmingham, Alabama, late last month, a well-known black civil-rights activist was punched and kicked by Trump supporters even as the candidate spoke. The same happened to immigration activists in Miami earlier that month. In Washington in September, a young Latino woman was spat on and had her hair pulled for protesting against Mr Trump’s racist slurs.
Mr Trump seems to draw out the very worst from every crowd because he has made plain that he sees the world in a binary way, a black and white toss-up between winners and losers, good and bad, strong and weak, smart and stupid. What will that mean for America, or indeed for American Muslims and for Muslims who travel to America to work, study, holiday or visit family? What effect will the Trump “stressors” have on Mexican immigrants in the US, American proponents of immigration, black Americans, anyone with a visible physical disability who happens to cross Mr Trump?
There is much head-shaking around the world and perhaps rather too much hysteria as well, what with a recent petition to ban him from the UK.
However, there is something to be said for Canadian academic Saqib Qureshi’s analysis that “Trump is tanking the American brand globally”.
Dr Qureshi, who writes about identity politics, says that Canadians and much of the world are paying close attention even at this early stage of the US presidential contest because all of America’s proclamations about freedom, equality and human rights cannot hide the fact “that a religious bigot and racist actually (once) led one of the two political parties’ race to become president".
It has been said often enough that Mr Trump is able to bring out the worst in his supporters because that hate and prejudice already exists deep within them. Post-September 11 unease about Muslims. Prejudice against African-Americans. Fear of foreigners. And yet, recent history shows that America’s biases have served as “stressors” that serve to boost its anti-fragility.
Three examples of populist demagogues are worth citing. The first: Louisiana’s Depression-era governor Huey Long, who began a badly-needed public works programme but off the back of ugly rhetoric that depicted the rich as “parasites”. Then there was Wisconsin senator Joe McCarthy, who whipped up the Reds-under-beds fear into a dangerously charged campaign of hate. And finally, another southern governor, George Wallace of Alabama, who exploited 1960s fears about equal rights for black people. To each stress test, America responded with a proper respect for rule of law and a progressive sense of itself by recognising its biases as they were.
Will Mr Trump’s Muslim “stressor” prompt the same epiphany?
America’s fear of Muslims runs deep. Consider the results of the first study of religious identity and workplace discrimination against American Muslim doctors. Conducted two years ago, much before the California shootings, the full flowering of ISIL and before Mr Trump announced his intention to run for president, the study has just been published in AJOB Empirical Bioethics, which is affiliated with the American Journal of Bioethics. It found that nearly half of the Muslims doctors surveyed felt more scrutiny at work compared to their peers. Nearly one in four said they experienced religious discrimination during their careers. Almost 10 per cent said patients had refused their care because they were Muslim.
And yet, the reality is that unlike in parts of Europe, Muslims in the US are well along the way to being assimilated. As happened with Italians and other southern Europeans who were reviled and branded a security threat to America less than a hundred years ago, the cycle of rejection, integration and acceptance may be destined to play itself out with Muslims as well. Mr Trump may force a reconsideration and ultimate rejection of American Islamophobia.
Rashmee Roshan Lall is a writer on world affairs
On Twitter: @rashmeerl
Scotland v Ireland:
Scotland (15-1): Stuart Hogg; Tommy Seymour, Huw Jones, Sam Johnson, Sean Maitland; Finn Russell, Greig Laidlaw (capt); Josh Strauss, James Ritchie, Ryan Wilson; Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist; Simon Berghan, Stuart McInally, Allan Dell
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Jamie Bhatti, D'arcy Rae, Ben Toolis, Rob Harley, Ali Price, Pete Horne, Blair Kinghorn
Coach: Gregor Townsend (SCO)
Ireland (15-1): Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Jack Conan, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony; James Ryan, Quinn Roux; Tadhg Furlong, Rory Best (capt), Cian Healy
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne, Andrew Porter, Ultan Dillane, Josh van der Flier, John Cooney, Joey Carbery, Jordan Larmour
Coach: Joe Schmidt (NZL)
Sleep Well Beast
The National
4AD
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
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The years Ramadan fell in May
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Other key dates
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Finals draw: December 2
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Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
More on animal trafficking
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Our House, Louise Candlish,
Simon & Schuster
Iraq negotiating over Iran sanctions impact
- US sanctions on Iran’s energy industry and exports took effect on Monday, November 5.
- Washington issued formal waivers to eight buyers of Iranian oil, allowing them to continue limited imports. Iraq did not receive a waiver.
- Iraq’s government is cooperating with the US to contain Iranian influence in the country, and increased Iraqi oil production is helping to make up for Iranian crude that sanctions are blocking from markets, US officials say.
- Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumped last month at a record 4.78 million barrels a day, former Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi said on Oct. 20. Iraq exported 3.83 million barrels a day last month, according to tanker tracking and data from port agents.
- Iraq has been working to restore production at its northern Kirkuk oil field. Kirkuk could add 200,000 barrels a day of oil to Iraq’s total output, Hook said.
- The country stopped trucking Kirkuk oil to Iran about three weeks ago, in line with U.S. sanctions, according to four people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified because they aren’t allowed to speak to media.
- Oil exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest supplier, have slumped since President Donald Trump announced in May that he’d reimpose sanctions. Iran shipped about 1.76 million barrels a day in October out of 3.42 million in total production, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- Benchmark Brent crude fell 47 cents to $72.70 a barrel in London trading at 7:26 a.m. local time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was 25 cents lower at $62.85 a barrel in New York. WTI held near the lowest level in seven months as concerns of a tightening market eased after the U.S. granted its waivers to buyers of Iranian crude.
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now