Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minister, hopes to convince Scots to vote for independence. Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minister, hopes to convince Scots to vote for independence. Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Whatever Scotland decides, Westminster’s bubble has burst



With opinion polls roughly evenly split, voters in Scotland decide today whether to sever links with the rest of the United Kingdom.

Should the Yes campaign prevail, both sides will begin negotiations on formal division, taking in such issues as Scotland’s claims on dwindling North Sea oil reserves, the British Armed Forces, currency arrangements and the status of a newly-minted sovereign border. David Cameron, the UK prime minister who allowed the referendum, will face resignation calls and some are predicting the postponement of next year’s general election as constituency boundaries are redrawn.

The No campaign is judged to have misread the mood in Scotland and relied too much on the principled but unenlivening former chancellor Alistair Darling and former prime minister Gordon Brown to outline the “Better Together” case. The prime minister and major party leaders have visited Scotland only in the past couple of weeks, proffering last minute concessions in the hope of avoiding cataclysm.

The Daily Mail, one of the UK’s most widely read papers, yesterday pleaded: “To our Scottish cousins we say sorry for England’s inept political class and beg you to stay in our great British family.”

Since the Acts of Union over 300 years ago, Scotland’s economic, martial, artistic and engineering genius has played a key role in the development and rise to prominence of the UK as a world power. The Scots are, quite simply, stitched into the DNA of British identity.

The hundreds of thousands of Scots who live south of the border are testimony to this. The economies are intertwined. Scottish regiments have helped project British power abroad for years and the country’s ultimate deterrent, in the shape of nuclear-armed submarines, slip quietly in and out of berths at Faslane.

The Scottish economic case for separation appears to be inconclusive. Tax receipts do not cover current, let alone future public expenditure. Exploitable oil reserves are, in the eyes of serious people, not of sufficient size to finance promised spending increases. Access to the European Union gravy train is not guaranteed and companies based in Scotland, especially in the financial sector, are threatening a southern exodus. Westminster has all but rejected a currency union. Why, its politicians ask, would what is left of the UK underwrite a currency used by a sovereign territory over which it has no fiscal sway?

Separation also threatens economic and political stability south of the border, however. Money markets do not respond favourably to dramas of this kind. Nor do overseas investors. Westminster will have to show real leadership in announcing the future plan for the economy and the pound if currency speculators are to be kept at bay.

The UK’s place in the world as a key proponent of democracy and the rule of law, its diplomatic and economic heft and international reputation – would be diminished. Those who adopt a triumphalist, “good riddance” attitude to the Scots will soon learn that a broken union will prove politically, socially and economically debilitating for the rest of the UK.

Although the Queen would remain Queen of Scotland (she sees Balmoral as the family home), republican sympathies there are strong and political cohesion relies in part on the erroneous depiction of the monarchy as a symbol of the “usurpers” in the South. Further afield, separation could enliven trends towards social and political Balkanisation from Catalonia to Quebec.

The prospect of Scottish independence is only the latest illustration of a social and political trend towards wholesale rejection of centralised and aloof governmental systems.

Inroads into mainstream voting patterns made by the UK Independence Party (UKIP) are as much a sign of the rejection of what is perceived by many to be an isolated governing class as it is of European integration. The Conservatives were wiped out as an electoral force in Scotland years ago. They were found to be irrelevant to life lived so far away from the “City State” of London and its commuter belt.

There is little to distinguish the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders in terms of policies, background or rhetoric, many feel. All appear to lack sufficient understanding of the hopes and fears of the struggling working or middle class person making a go of it outside the sacred confines of the London orbital motorway.

The government and mainstream parties had 18 months to make the case for union but they only got serious two weeks ago when polls began to indicate danger. The lack of a serious duty of care to the Scottish challenge has, it might be argued, served to vindicate the Scottish National Party’s broader claims that Westminster simply does not care.

If the union is still intact after the vote, the referendum process will nevertheless transform British politics and society. Scotland will be granted virtual home rule, igniting serious rows about the constitutional relationship between the Westminster and Scottish legislatures.

Devolved taxation and spending powers will continue to raise issues about a lack of national uniformity in areas such as university fees and health care, but the union, which is so much a part of the UK’s national character, economic potential and diplomatic standing, will remain – for now.

There might also be a deeper democratic dividend if government makes genuine efforts to focus on areas outside the Westminster “bubble”, re-empowering local politics and local communities along US-style “direct democracy” lines. The state is far too big, its legislative and tax-raising discretion far too wide and it will not be long, even if Scotland remains in the UK, before other parts of the country become restive.

Martin Newland is a former editor-in-chief of The National

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
On Instagram: @WithHopeUAE

Although social media can be harmful to our mental health, paradoxically, one of the antidotes comes with the many social-media accounts devoted to normalising mental-health struggles. With Hope UAE is one of them.
The group, which has about 3,600 followers, was started three years ago by five Emirati women to address the stigma surrounding the subject. Via Instagram, the group recently began featuring personal accounts by Emiratis. The posts are written under the hashtag #mymindmatters, along with a black-and-white photo of the subject holding the group’s signature red balloon.
“Depression is ugly,” says one of the users, Amani. “It paints everything around me and everything in me.”
Saaed, meanwhile, faces the daunting task of caring for four family members with psychological disorders. “I’ve had no support and no resources here to help me,” he says. “It has been, and still is, a one-man battle against the demons of fractured minds.”
In addition to With Hope UAE’s frank social-media presence, the group holds talks and workshops in Dubai. “Change takes time,” Reem Al Ali, vice chairman and a founding member of With Hope UAE, told The National earlier this year. “It won’t happen overnight, and it will take persistent and passionate people to bring about this change.”

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017

Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free

Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa

Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia

How Beautiful this world is!
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2015%20PRO%20MAX
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MATCH INFO

Crawley Town 3 (Tsaroulla 50', Nadesan 53', Tunnicliffe 70')

Leeds United 0 

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

Cryopreservation: A timeline
  1. Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
  2. Ovarian tissue surgically removed
  3. Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
  4. Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
  5. Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
'Nope'
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UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Porsche Macan T: The Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo 

Power: 265hp from 5,000-6,500rpm 

Torque: 400Nm from 1,800-4,500rpm 

Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto 

Speed: 0-100kph in 6.2sec 

Top speed: 232kph 

Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km 

On sale: May or June 

Price: From Dh259,900  

The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler

Price, base / as tested Dh57,000

Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine

Transmission Six-speed gearbox

Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm

Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km

The 10 Questions
  • Is there a God?
  • How did it all begin?
  • What is inside a black hole?
  • Can we predict the future?
  • Is time travel possible?
  • Will we survive on Earth?
  • Is there other intelligent life in the universe?
  • Should we colonise space?
  • Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
  • How do we shape the future?

'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press

Elvis
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Baz%20Luhrmann%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Austin%20Butler%2C%20Tom%20Hanks%2C%20Olivia%20DeJonge%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

Titanium Escrow profile

Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue  
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family

Company%20Profile
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The%20Genius%20of%20Their%20Age
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