After the UK voted to leave the European Union, the reality is now being considered by British citizens across the UAE. There are many unanswered questions about what will happen to the country, its economy and its future relations with its neighbours.
For the UAE itself, little has changed. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, tweeted that “we respect their choice and remain committed to our long and close partnership with the UK”. Indeed, the possibility of weakening ties with the EU could mean stronger ties with allies around the world, including in the Gulf. For Emiratis, too, there is little immediate effect. But there may be longer term uncertainty.
The waves of change unleashed by Brexit will not end at the English Channel. Already, anti-European parties across the continent are gearing up to try the same thing in their own countries. Britain was only the first to leave, others may well follow. The European Union itself will be changed without the UK – for one thing, it will be poorer and weaker, as the UK is one of the richer EU countries and has the most powerful military. That will make challenges that the EU faces, from the spillover from the Syrian civil war to the difficult relations with Russia, harder to tackle. The same will be true if divisions in Europe take hold and countries begin to argue within themselves about their relationship with the EU.
But other changes may well follow. Much of the EU referendum debate inside the UK turned on immigration. Although the main focus was on migrants from Eastern Europe, there was, inevitably, an anti-Muslim dimension. If that rhetoric continues across the European continent it may make relations with Islamic countries trickier – to say nothing of students, business, investment and tourism from Muslim countries.
All of that is for the future – although European leaders are already gathering to make sure Brexit doesn’t contaminate the rest of the continent. But the real political work is in the UK. Although decisive, the referendum exposed serious divisions by geography, social class and age. Those divisions will not be easy to bridge, but it is essential that an attempt to unite the country is made.
Big political moments such as Brexit are rare. They are often unexpected and their consequences are always unpredictable. In the space of a matter of hours, the UK voted to leave the EU and lost its prime minister. The coming weeks and months will be uncertain.
