What does Russia gain from trying to control the Syrian war?

What the Arabic press is saying about Russia goals in Syria

Boys stand at a ground damaged by what activists said were air strikes carried out yesterday by the Russian air force at a school in Jerjnaz town in Idlib province, Syria. Khalil Ashawi / Reuters

Less than 24 hours after a lacklustre meeting between the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and his Qatari counterpart over the classification of extremist groups in Syria, Russian fighter jets carried out an air strike that killed Jaish Al Islam opposition leader Zahran Alloush in Damascus.

“Whether the air strike was orchestrated by Moscow as a way to impose its demands or not, the incident was widely interpreted in this way,” said the columnist Abdelrahman Al Rashed in the London-based daily Asharq Al Awsat.

Russia wants to be the deciding factor in the direction of the war in Syria and any peace negotiations to end the fighting. At the negotiating table and in the field, their muscle-flexing tactics have demonstrated just how adamant Moscow is when it comes to imposing its views on the conflict.

“The Russians may very well win this round, entrenching the Russian-Iranian project to keep Bashar Al Assad in power and imposing their views of the extremist groups that demand to participate in the Vienna talks for a political resolution. In short, Moscow wants to be the sole decision-maker in the Syrian crisis. Whether it will be able to achieve this objective remains to be seen,” he noted.

Russia will have to be prepared to pay a high price if it decides to press ahead in this attempt to control the outcome of the conflict. It must also consider what cost will be associated with becoming a part of any future system of government in Damascus.

“For reasons largely unknown to us, except in the framework of power struggle with the West, the Russians are heavily investing themselves in the ruling project of Syria and in strengthening their alliance with Iran,” the writer said.

“At this moment, it is unfathomable why Moscow would target the Jaish Al Islam group, which is far less terrifying than ISIL and doesn’t carry as much political weight as the moderate Free Syrian Army. By killing Zahran Alloush, the group’s leader, the Russians have created a number of political headaches of large proportions,” he added.

With the Middle East falling deeper and deeper into a spiral of turmoil, from Syria to Yemen, Iran’s old politics of stirring up chaos and division is paying off. The question is whether the Russians believe that they can gain anything from Iranian influence around the region.

What could Moscow stand to gain from making enemies out of the majority of Arab countries and peoples by entrenching its alliance with Iran?

Echoing Al Rashed’s opinion, the Lebanese columnist George Samaan wrote in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat that the Russian air strike that killed Zahran Alloush is of evidence Moscow’s clear politics.

Russia doesn’t want to listen to others or take their opinions into consideration when it comes to the Middle East. Moreover, Moscow isn’t prepared to wait for an agreement over another country’s extremist watch list.

The attack on Jaish Al Islam didn’t target Alloush individually. It was meant to embarrass the group and drive them out of the Syrian capital. As such, the attack came as confirmation that Moscow insists on drafting its own extremist watch list, placing the groups it wants on the defensive and deciding the complexion of which groups will negotiate with the Syrian regime for the country’s future. In other words, the country wants to be the sole architect of any political settlement in Syria.

“Russia’s campaign in Syria has been targeting moderate opposition groups, which may constitute obstacles to its vision of a settlement,” the writer opined.

“It is no secret that Russia’s intervention in Syria aims to protect the country’s geopolitical and economic interests,” he added.

“After four years of offering its support to regime forces loyal to Assad and collusion with Iran’s interference on the ground, Moscow has realised that neither Damascus nor Tehran is capable of completing the mission. It was for this reason that president Vladimir Putin seemed so eager to send his troops to the battleground. Only Russian force could open the diplomatically challenging way to the settlement he has in mind.”

Nonetheless, president Putin’s decision to forcibly impose his vision for a solution comes with no guarantees. The patience of other countries in the region is running out. The future of Syria is an integral part of the entire region’s future, and Moscow cannot determine it single-handedly and according to its own interests.

Translated by Racha Makarem