Libya will have a united government ready to start working from the capital Tripoli before the end of the year, if events go to plan.
After several rounds of negotiations over more than 14 months, Libya’s two quarrelling parliaments and fighting governments have agreed to accept a plan that includes establishing a national unity government headed by Fayez Sarraj, a former architect turned politician.
It is not the best possible solution for the war-torn country, but it’s the best possible solution available. Indeed some parliamentarians from Tobruk and Tripoli have expressed reservations about the deal but it remains to be seen if they can derail it or not. What is worrying is that the speakers of both the Tobruk-based parliament and its Tripoli counterpart have not yet accepted the agreement signed in Morocco on December 17.
All UN Security Council permanent members endorsed resolution 2259, adopted by the council on December 23, giving its full support to the new government by recognizing it as the only legitimate government in Libya. The EU and a host of regional countries have already done the same, promising help when needed.
However, the devil is in the detail – especially when it comes to Libya. So, what are the priorities of this new government and how could it unite a divided Libya?
For western powers, regional countries and the UN, the most urgent priorities are two-fold. First to stabilise the country in order to fight ISIL. Regional and western countries are extremely worried about ISIL’s complete control of Sirte on the Mediterranean, which could serve as a staging point for attacks against the EU. And the second priority is to, at least, reduce the flow of refugees from Libya to European southern shores.
Libya has been a favourite route for hundreds of thousands of refugees to cross the Mediterranean to Europe. In light of the recent terror attacks in Paris, stopping them has become more urgent since individuals intending to carryout attacks in Europe can easily disperse among the legitimate refugees, as it appeared to be the case in at least one of the Paris atrocities.
Only time will tell if the new government – should it assume power in Tripoli – will deliver on any of those international priorities.
However these two priorities are not at the top of ordinary Libyans’ minds when it comes to what they expect from the government that is supposed to be serving them.
What ordinary Libyans expect is security and stability in their daily lives, so they can go about their business without worrying about being kidnapped, randomly jailed or shot at. They would like to see prices come down, liquidity in the banking system, hospitals able to offer better medical care and children being able to safely go to school.
While the majority of Libyans back the political agreement and the government it has produced, there is a general feeling that this government will care more about what the outside world want more than what Libyans really look for. For nearly five years, Libyans have been going through all kinds of hardships including militia dominance in their lives and a lack of the rule of law. They want to be assured that something will be done about it.
Over one million Libyans are displaced within and without the country and many of them eagerly await improvements so as they can go back to their homes, particularly those forced to leave the country. The people of Tawergha, a town of 40,000 inhabitants who were forced to flee in October 2011, expect no less than a peaceful return to their homes and businesses.
Security arrangements for the government to take up its job in Tripoli are a major problem since the capital is under the control of a network of militias.
Arrangements with them are handled by General Paolo Serra of Italy, who is trying not only to win the militias’ support for the new government, but also to have them committed to protecting it once it goes back to Tripoli.
It is very unlikely that any foreign forces, particularly European, will carry out any security duties in Tripoli. What is probable is that the local militias will be advised by foreigners, including EU security experts, while the actual protection and daily security issues are handled by them.
This, however, is far from ideal and it cannot provide any guarantees that the government will be able to work free of militia influence, but it is the best possible deal on offer as long as Libyans are unable to agree on how to save their country.
Mustafa Fetouri is an independent Libyan academic and an award-winning journalist
